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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Any predictions on Microsoft's quarterly results being released tomorrow?

TheBigFatJ on 23 January 2008
NeoRatt said:
TheBigFatJ said:
Whatever their profit is, it will be a paper-only profit. That is, their expenses will exceed their revenue, but they will hide that fact with money set aside and charged to their previous fiscal year.

You obviously don't know anything about accounting...

If you are talking about the $1.1 Billion RRoD charge... Doesn't it make sense to charge the $1.1 billion to the timeframe in which the faulty consoles were sold?

 

The consoles being sold right now are still faulty. There have been tons of reports of falcon failures with the 3RROD.

They can use whatever accounting smoke and mirrors they want to create the illusion of profit.  But that doesn't make it any more than an illusion. 

 



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thekitchensink on 23 January 2008

Predicting a $200 mln profit based on people buying them for X-mas, as well as Bioshock, Halo, and to a lesser extent, ME.



Could I trouble you for some maple syrup to go with the plate of roffles you just served up?

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rocketpig on 23 January 2008
TheBigFatJ said:
NeoRatt said:
TheBigFatJ said:
Whatever their profit is, it will be a paper-only profit. That is, their expenses will exceed their revenue, but they will hide that fact with money set aside and charged to their previous fiscal year.

You obviously don't know anything about accounting...

If you are talking about the $1.1 Billion RRoD charge... Doesn't it make sense to charge the $1.1 billion to the timeframe in which the faulty consoles were sold?

 

The consoles being sold right now are still faulty. There have been tons of reports of falcon failures with the 3RROD.

They can use whatever accounting smoke and mirrors they want to create the illusion of profit. But that doesn't make it any more than an illusion.

 


Where? I haven't heard of one failure yet that was definitely a Falcon model. I'm sure a few have but I would like to see a few links (and remember that just because it has HDMI doesn't mean it's a Falcon chip).




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Mistershine on 23 January 2008

The company as a whole will post over $4 billion net profit for the quarter. Thats $16 billion a year. Profit.



crumas2 on 23 January 2008
rocketpig said:
TheBigFatJ said:
 

The consoles being sold right now are still faulty. There have been tons of reports of falcon failures with the 3RROD.

They can use whatever accounting smoke and mirrors they want to create the illusion of profit. But that doesn't make it any more than an illusion.

 


Where? I haven't heard of one failure yet that was definitely a Falcon model. I'm sure a few have but I would like to see a few links (and remember that just because it has HDMI doesn't mean it's a Falcon chip).


People pull this stuff out of the air all the time.  I haven't read of chronic Falcon 360 failures either, but that doesn't mean someone won't make it up to paint the MS entertainment division in the poorest light possible.

I'm guessing their entertainment division will post a $200 m profit.  Considering the problems with Vista, I think their overall profits will likely go down from Unbelievably Obscene to just Terribly Obscene. 

 



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elnino334 on 23 January 2008
crumas2 said:
rocketpig said:
TheBigFatJ said:
 

The consoles being sold right now are still faulty. There have been tons of reports of falcon failures with the 3RROD.

They can use whatever accounting smoke and mirrors they want to create the illusion of profit. But that doesn't make it any more than an illusion.

 


Where? I haven't heard of one failure yet that was definitely a Falcon model. I'm sure a few have but I would like to see a few links (and remember that just because it has HDMI doesn't mean it's a Falcon chip).


People pull this stuff out of the air all the time.  I haven't read of chronic Falcon 360 failures either, but that doesn't mean someone won't make it up to paint the MS entertainment division in the poorest light possible.

I'm guessing their entertainment division will post a $200 m profit.  Considering the problems with Vista, I think their overall profits will likely go down from Unbelievably Obscene to just Terribly Obscene. 

 


On top of that they already set aside the money needed for rrod so won't affect anything. Seemssilly to think they will write off 1 billion every fiscal lol.

agabara on 23 January 2008
rocketpig said:
TheBigFatJ said:
NeoRatt said:
TheBigFatJ said:
Whatever their profit is, it will be a paper-only profit. That is, their expenses will exceed their revenue, but they will hide that fact with money set aside and charged to their previous fiscal year.

You obviously don't know anything about accounting...

If you are talking about the $1.1 Billion RRoD charge... Doesn't it make sense to charge the $1.1 billion to the timeframe in which the faulty consoles were sold?

 

The consoles being sold right now are still faulty. There have been tons of reports of falcon failures with the 3RROD.

They can use whatever accounting smoke and mirrors they want to create the illusion of profit. But that doesn't make it any more than an illusion.

 


Where? I haven't heard of one failure yet that was definitely a Falcon model. I'm sure a few have but I would like to see a few links (and remember that just because it has HDMI doesn't mean it's a Falcon chip).


I can't give a link to a reporting of Falcon model failing, but the fail rate is apparently "sub 10%" if you trust 8Bit Jostick.com, which is a huge improvement from 30% (http://www.8bitjoystick.com/archives/jake_inside_source_reveal_the_truth_about_xbox_360_red_ring_of_death_failures.php ). I don't know if that site is a reliable source, though.



Systems owned: Nintendo 64, GameCube, Xbox 360, Atari 7800, Genesis, PlayStation, Dreamcast, Game Boy Advance, Nintendo DS.

Year-end predictions (April 6, 2008):

  • DS: 94 million (96.0)
  • Wii: 46 million (44.4)
  • PSP: 45 million (43.6)
  • X360: 27 million (27.3)
  • PS3: 24 million (19.4)
  • PS2: 124 million (123.7)
TheBigFatJ on 24 January 2008

agabara said:
rocketpig said:

Where? I haven't heard of one failure yet that was definitely a Falcon model. I'm sure a few have but I would like to see a few links (and remember that just because it has HDMI doesn't mean it's a Falcon chip).


I can't give a link to a reporting of Falcon model failing, but the fail rate is apparently "sub 10%" if you trust 8Bit Jostick.com, which is a huge improvement from 30% (http://www.8bitjoystick.com/archives/jake_inside_source_reveal_the_truth_about_xbox_360_red_ring_of_death_failures.php). I don't know if that site is a reliable source, though.

 

The 10% number, which is completely bullshit, would still be a huge number, and he goes on to admit that he doesn't know the failure rate.  He's guessing.   Just before he says that, he says, "[The failure rate is] around 30%, and all will probably fail early." That's a discrepancy: he's saying the defective rate is 100% by saying "all will probably fail early." Perhaps he's redefining failure rate as "rate of failure within first 12 months" rather than "rate of failure over expected lifetime."

"This quarter they are expecting 1 M failures, most of those Xenons."

That's one quarter, boys and girls. One quarter. Keep in mind that Microsoft 'repairs' those units and sends them right back out. Many of them wil be cycling through their system for years.

Oh, and here's a 3RROD falcon for you. I can dig up lots if you'd like:

http://img.waffleimages.com/b5df76026dc29e084117d611042db65ec6ee7ecc/trl.jpg

http://img.waffleimages.com/d47c29a4521f7f1bc87c3e609102e3a274a2f188/xboxfalcon.jpg



Bodhesatva on 24 January 2008

I'm guessing 300 million.



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Legend11 on 24 January 2008
TheBigFatJ said:
agabara said:
rocketpig said:

Where? I haven't heard of one failure yet that was definitely a Falcon model. I'm sure a few have but I would like to see a few links (and remember that just because it has HDMI doesn't mean it's a Falcon chip).


I can't give a link to a reporting of Falcon model failing, but the fail rate is apparently "sub 10%" if you trust 8Bit Jostick.com, which is a huge improvement from 30% (http://www.8bitjoystick.com/archives/jake_inside_source_reveal_the_truth_about_xbox_360_red_ring_of_death_failures.php). I don't know if that site is a reliable source, though.

 

The 10% number, which is completely bullshit, would still be a huge number, and he goes on to admit that he doesn't know the failure rate.  He's guessing.   Just before he says that, he says, "[The failure rate is] around 30%, and all will probably fail early." That's a discrepancy: he's saying the defective rate is 100% by saying "all will probably fail early." Perhaps he's redefining failure rate as "rate of failure within first 12 months" rather than "rate of failure over expected lifetime."

"This quarter they are expecting 1 M failures, most of those Xenons."

That's one quarter, boys and girls. One quarter. Keep in mind that Microsoft 'repairs' those units and sends them right back out. Many of them wil be cycling through their system for years.

Oh, and here's a 3RROD falcon for you. I can dig up lots if you'd like:

http://img.waffleimages.com/b5df76026dc29e084117d611042db65ec6ee7ecc/trl.jpg

http://img.waffleimages.com/d47c29a4521f7f1bc87c3e609102e3a274a2f188/xboxfalcon.jpg



Could you please explain the following:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9266904&postcount=7118

In a very large thread at NeoGAF in which people report their 360 hardware failures only 3 systems out of 1,267 consoles people reported were falcons.  Of those 3 none were RROD  but instead all 3 systems were reported to have drive failures and all were reported by the same user.

To be honest I don't understand why when it comes to the "Microsoft Insider" source who's numbers you seem to enjoy quoting you choose to believe them without question on everything negative they say about Microsoft and the 360 but call anything positive said "completely bullshit".