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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pokemon X and Pokemon Y Prediction Lifetime Software Sales!

 

How much Software will Pokemon X/Y sell lifetime?

No more than 12mil (worst... 17 8.85%
 
12mil-14mil 22 11.46%
 
14mil-16mil 17 8.85%
 
16mil-18mil 38 19.79%
 
18mil-20mil 39 20.31%
 
20mil-22mil 27 14.06%
 
22mil-24mil 3 1.56%
 
24mil-25mil 3 1.56%
 
25mil+ 25 13.02%
 
Total:191
tbone51 on 09 January 2013
Augen said:
tbone51 said:
Augen said:
Pokemon X - 8 million
Pokemon Y - 7 million
Total - 15 million

If Pokemon Z is released I give that another 3 million to push it to 18 total.



No problem with your predictions, just the third version (Z). The lowest 3rd installment in pokemon game (yellow,crstal,emerald,platinum,) is the current Pokemon BW2 and thats over 6mil, 6.25 to be exact and its not even been a year which means it can get up over 8mil! I doubt 3 mil! Japan alone would get that lol

Fair point, my guess was based on 52 weeks of sales for each title, but these games have great legs so 22 mil for the two and 30 mil for the three is possible.



lol srry didn't mean to com off bad! That makes sense! Why dont you predict in my other thread? If ya win you'll get a nice prize http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=152566&page=1



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BlkPaladin on 09 January 2013

I'm thinking about 15 million.



sperrico87 on 09 January 2013

Being fully 3D, as it is, is a huge selling point for X/Y. People like me (25 yrs old) have been dreaming of a full 3D Pokemon RPG for years. The graphics and the similarities between the last three portable versions have just led me to become very uninterested in the series. This will be my first Pokemon game purchase since Ruby/Sapphire, and that kind of interest from long-absent fans like myself will probably propel X/Y to be some of the best-selling Pokemon games in a good many years. Nintendo is back!

I think the only factor that might hold X/Y back from breaking 16-18 million in sales is the softness of the 3DS market in the west.  Europe especially is just not doing well right now.  International publishers over there are scaling back, laying European subsidiaries off, limiting the number of releases, and even taking it to the level of only releasing digitally so they don't risk taking a bath on disappointing packaged-software sales. 

If Nintendo and Pokemon Company manage to make X/Y a massive success in Europe as it will be in Japan and North America, it could see sales near or exceeding 18 million.  That would truly be something to behold.



 

tbone51 on 09 January 2013
sperrico87 said:
Being fully 3D, as it is, is a huge selling point for X/Y. People like me (25 yrs old) have been dreaming of a full 3D Pokemon RPG for years. The graphics and the similarities between the last three portable versions have just led me to become very uninterested in the series. This will be my first Pokemon game purchase since Ruby/Sapphire, and that kind of interest from long-absent fans like myself will probably propel X/Y to be some of the best-selling Pokemon games in a good many years. Nintendo is back!



im 23, i've always wanted a 3D game, cant beleve you missed out! Good thing is now you'll have halfbof the pokemon never caught/seen b4. Gen4-6 pokemon is in your grasp now lol



sperrico87 on 09 January 2013
tbone51 said:
sperrico87 said:
Being fully 3D, as it is, is a huge selling point for X/Y. People like me (25 yrs old) have been dreaming of a full 3D Pokemon RPG for years. The graphics and the similarities between the last three portable versions have just led me to become very uninterested in the series. This will be my first Pokemon game purchase since Ruby/Sapphire, and that kind of interest from long-absent fans like myself will probably propel X/Y to be some of the best-selling Pokemon games in a good many years. Nintendo is back!



im 23, i've always wanted a 3D game, cant beleve you missed out! Good thing is now you'll have halfbof the pokemon never caught/seen b4. Gen4-6 pokemon is in your grasp now lol


I played a little bit of Black.  Meh.  Been there, done that.  X/Y will amazing, though.  Pokemon games are finally evolving, at long last.



 

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tbone51 on 09 January 2013
sperrico87 said:
tbone51 said:
sperrico87 said:
Being fully 3D, as it is, is a huge selling point for X/Y. People like me (25 yrs old) have been dreaming of a full 3D Pokemon RPG for years. The graphics and the similarities between the last three portable versions have just led me to become very uninterested in the series. This will be my first Pokemon game purchase since Ruby/Sapphire, and that kind of interest from long-absent fans like myself will probably propel X/Y to be some of the best-selling Pokemon games in a good many years. Nintendo is back!



im 23, i've always wanted a 3D game, cant beleve you missed out! Good thing is now you'll have halfbof the pokemon never caught/seen b4. Gen4-6 pokemon is in your grasp now lol


I played a little bit of Black.  Meh.  Been there, done that.  X/Y will amazing, though.  Pokemon games are finally evolving, at long last.



Since this hypes you, this must hype others (people who dislike either Gen3, 4 or 5) which kind of says this game may as well sell over 20mil! I personally hope it beats Gold/Silver! We'll see in the future!



Pineapple on 09 January 2013
F0X said:
Pineapple said:
F0X said:
Pineapple said:
MDMAlliance said:
The only reason I put 25m+ is because of how different this one is, and the hype level that is resulting can result in some better-than-average results. The graphics have a huge upgrade from the usual, and there are a lot of changes that seem to be things a lot of people like. There seem to be people who haven't played pokemon in a while who seem interested in this one, so it isn't entirely impossible for this one to have better legs than most of the others.

You're correct that there's a lot of potential here. If there's ever a title that has the potential to sell over 30 million, it's this one. If you look at all the people who have ever bought a Pokemon game, it's probably passed 50 million by now. But, as the series hasn't evolved a ton, there's been a large drop-off. If you can get a large number of those drop-offs interested, you could very well end up selling 30 million. Personally I think it's unlikely, but it's definitely a possibility.

F0X said:

Around 16-17 mil. Should be big since it's a large step forward, but the recent glut of Pokemon releases may eat into sales a bit.

(I can't get quotes to work anymore, so I'm just copy/pasting your post

 

It's not strctly speaking true that there's been an increase in mainline Pokemon releases, though.  Look at it as a timeline, and it's rather evident.

1996: Blue/Red
97:  Nothing
98: Yellow
99: Gold/Silver
00:  Crystal
01:  Nothing
02:  Ruby/Sapphire
03: Nothing
04: Fire Red/Leaf Green, as well as Emerald (so 2 major Pokemon games in one year)
05: Nothing
06: Diamond/Pearl
07: Nothing
08: Platinum
09: Heart Gold/Soul Silver
10: Black/White
11: Nothing
12: Black/White 2
13: X and Y

Pokemon games have always been a close to annual thing. In the GB era, there were 4 games in 5 years. In the GBA era, we saw 3 games in 4 years. On the DS, we saw 5 games in 7 years.

It's abnormal for Pokemon to start a new generation the year following the end of the previous one. Last time that happened was the transition from Gen 1 to Gen 2, when Gold/Silver followed the year after the release of Pokemon Yellow. Just by looking at the pattern, I'd have anticipated a Gen 3 remake instead on a new generation. However, I think Game Freak is making the right choice by using a new generation for the 3DS transition, and doing it quickly. Though I do think X/Y will be competing with B/W2 until after the holiday season is over.

I'm not sure how they'll be competing, really. Black & White 2 is going to be in the sub-30,000 a week levels by the time X/Y launches. It's likely it won't even do 500,000 post Y/X launch, really. Meanwhile, Y/X is going to be selling somewhere around 10 million. That's actually less of a competition than Mario Kart DS is to Mario Kart 7. 


Mario Kart follows a completely different model. Going by the history of Pokemon sales, I find it very unlikely for B/W2 to sell so little in its second year on the market. I haven't seen nor heard of any main Pokemon game making such a huge drop in sales. Granted, I've hardly heard of a new Pokemon generation starting so soon after the end of the previous one.

Black & White 2 sold 6.1 million in 2012. If it sells 500k from October and out, that means it's going to sell nearly a million in 2013. For a comparison:

Black & White sold 8.5 in 2011 (which was its first year, barring Japan) and went on to sell 1 million the following year.

Heart Gold/Soul Silver sold 6.7 million in 2010 (again, first year barring Japan) and went on to sell 875k in 2011.

Pokemon Platinum sold 4.4 million in 2009 (again, same) and went on to sell 631k in 2010.

The drop I proposed is perfectly in line with the history of Pokemon sales. It's happen with all the last 3 Pokemon games.



tbone51 on 09 January 2013
Pineapple said:
F0X said:
Pineapple said:
F0X said:
Pineapple said:
MDMAlliance said:
The only reason I put 25m+ is because of how different this one is, and the hype level that is resulting can result in some better-than-average results. The graphics have a huge upgrade from the usual, and there are a lot of changes that seem to be things a lot of people like. There seem to be people who haven't played pokemon in a while who seem interested in this one, so it isn't entirely impossible for this one to have better legs than most of the others.

You're correct that there's a lot of potential here. If there's ever a title that has the potential to sell over 30 million, it's this one. If you look at all the people who have ever bought a Pokemon game, it's probably passed 50 million by now. But, as the series hasn't evolved a ton, there's been a large drop-off. If you can get a large number of those drop-offs interested, you could very well end up selling 30 million. Personally I think it's unlikely, but it's definitely a possibility.

F0X said:

Around 16-17 mil. Should be big since it's a large step forward, but the recent glut of Pokemon releases may eat into sales a bit.

(I can't get quotes to work anymore, so I'm just copy/pasting your post

 

It's not strctly speaking true that there's been an increase in mainline Pokemon releases, though.  Look at it as a timeline, and it's rather evident.

1996: Blue/Red
97:  Nothing
98: Yellow
99: Gold/Silver
00:  Crystal
01:  Nothing
02:  Ruby/Sapphire
03: Nothing
04: Fire Red/Leaf Green, as well as Emerald (so 2 major Pokemon games in one year)
05: Nothing
06: Diamond/Pearl
07: Nothing
08: Platinum
09: Heart Gold/Soul Silver
10: Black/White
11: Nothing
12: Black/White 2
13: X and Y

Pokemon games have always been a close to annual thing. In the GB era, there were 4 games in 5 years. In the GBA era, we saw 3 games in 4 years. On the DS, we saw 5 games in 7 years.

It's abnormal for Pokemon to start a new generation the year following the end of the previous one. Last time that happened was the transition from Gen 1 to Gen 2, when Gold/Silver followed the year after the release of Pokemon Yellow. Just by looking at the pattern, I'd have anticipated a Gen 3 remake instead on a new generation. However, I think Game Freak is making the right choice by using a new generation for the 3DS transition, and doing it quickly. Though I do think X/Y will be competing with B/W2 until after the holiday season is over.

I'm not sure how they'll be competing, really. Black & White 2 is going to be in the sub-30,000 a week levels by the time X/Y launches. It's likely it won't even do 500,000 post Y/X launch, really. Meanwhile, Y/X is going to be selling somewhere around 10 million. That's actually less of a competition than Mario Kart DS is to Mario Kart 7. 


Mario Kart follows a completely different model. Going by the history of Pokemon sales, I find it very unlikely for B/W2 to sell so little in its second year on the market. I haven't seen nor heard of any main Pokemon game making such a huge drop in sales. Granted, I've hardly heard of a new Pokemon generation starting so soon after the end of the previous one.

Black & White 2 sold 6.1 million in 2012. If it sells 500k from October and out, that means it's going to sell nearly a million in 2013. For a comparison:

Black & White sold 8.5 in 2011 (which was its first year, barring Japan) and went on to sell 1 million the following year.

Heart Gold/Soul Silver sold 6.7 million in 2010 (again, first year barring Japan) and went on to sell 875k in 2011.

Pokemon Platinum sold 4.4 million in 2009 (again, same) and went on to sell 631k in 2010.

The drop I proposed is perfectly in line with the history of Pokemon sales. It's happen with all the last 3 Pokemon games.



You've got it wrong bro lol, Your talking about third installments, this is a new pair into the gen like black/white, diamond/pearl, sapphire/ruby. Those are the ones that sell great (fantastic) cuz its all new. pokemon X an Y will get over 10mil alone this year!



NintendoPie on 09 January 2013
007BondAgent said:
40million

Hell

80million, everyone who owns a 3ds will own this game, i'm predicting 1998 pokemon levels of hype here, even more considering that sold only 30m

Seems reasonable that even people without a 3DS will want to buy this game...



Pineapple on 09 January 2013
tbone51 said:
Pineapple said:
F0X said:
Pineapple said:
F0X said:
Pineapple said:
MDMAlliance said:
The only reason I put 25m+ is because of how different this one is, and the hype level that is resulting can result in some better-than-average results. The graphics have a huge upgrade from the usual, and there are a lot of changes that seem to be things a lot of people like. There seem to be people who haven't played pokemon in a while who seem interested in this one, so it isn't entirely impossible for this one to have better legs than most of the others.

You're correct that there's a lot of potential here. If there's ever a title that has the potential to sell over 30 million, it's this one. If you look at all the people who have ever bought a Pokemon game, it's probably passed 50 million by now. But, as the series hasn't evolved a ton, there's been a large drop-off. If you can get a large number of those drop-offs interested, you could very well end up selling 30 million. Personally I think it's unlikely, but it's definitely a possibility.

F0X said:

Around 16-17 mil. Should be big since it's a large step forward, but the recent glut of Pokemon releases may eat into sales a bit.

(I can't get quotes to work anymore, so I'm just copy/pasting your post

 

It's not strctly speaking true that there's been an increase in mainline Pokemon releases, though.  Look at it as a timeline, and it's rather evident.

1996: Blue/Red
97:  Nothing
98: Yellow
99: Gold/Silver
00:  Crystal
01:  Nothing
02:  Ruby/Sapphire
03: Nothing
04: Fire Red/Leaf Green, as well as Emerald (so 2 major Pokemon games in one year)
05: Nothing
06: Diamond/Pearl
07: Nothing
08: Platinum
09: Heart Gold/Soul Silver
10: Black/White
11: Nothing
12: Black/White 2
13: X and Y

Pokemon games have always been a close to annual thing. In the GB era, there were 4 games in 5 years. In the GBA era, we saw 3 games in 4 years. On the DS, we saw 5 games in 7 years.

It's abnormal for Pokemon to start a new generation the year following the end of the previous one. Last time that happened was the transition from Gen 1 to Gen 2, when Gold/Silver followed the year after the release of Pokemon Yellow. Just by looking at the pattern, I'd have anticipated a Gen 3 remake instead on a new generation. However, I think Game Freak is making the right choice by using a new generation for the 3DS transition, and doing it quickly. Though I do think X/Y will be competing with B/W2 until after the holiday season is over.

I'm not sure how they'll be competing, really. Black & White 2 is going to be in the sub-30,000 a week levels by the time X/Y launches. It's likely it won't even do 500,000 post Y/X launch, really. Meanwhile, Y/X is going to be selling somewhere around 10 million. That's actually less of a competition than Mario Kart DS is to Mario Kart 7. 


Mario Kart follows a completely different model. Going by the history of Pokemon sales, I find it very unlikely for B/W2 to sell so little in its second year on the market. I haven't seen nor heard of any main Pokemon game making such a huge drop in sales. Granted, I've hardly heard of a new Pokemon generation starting so soon after the end of the previous one.

Black & White 2 sold 6.1 million in 2012. If it sells 500k from October and out, that means it's going to sell nearly a million in 2013. For a comparison:

Black & White sold 8.5 in 2011 (which was its first year, barring Japan) and went on to sell 1 million the following year.

Heart Gold/Soul Silver sold 6.7 million in 2010 (again, first year barring Japan) and went on to sell 875k in 2011.

Pokemon Platinum sold 4.4 million in 2009 (again, same) and went on to sell 631k in 2010.

The drop I proposed is perfectly in line with the history of Pokemon sales. It's happen with all the last 3 Pokemon games.



You've got it wrong bro lol, Your talking about third installments, this is a new pair into the gen like black/white, diamond/pearl, sapphire/ruby. Those are the ones that sell great (fantastic) cuz its all new. pokemon X an Y will get over 10mil alone this year!


If you read the conversation I'm quoting, you'll see both of the following. Firstly, Fox and I are speaking about Black & White 2. Secondly, I've myself stated "Meanwhile, Y/X is going to be selling somewhere around 10 million [in 2013]".