Yeah, you are low on the shipment estimates as of the end of December. A shipped item is a sold item. I would expect them to be very close to their Wii U estimates when all is said and done...but I'll be closely watching the sales a week or two from now to see if U drops below 150k on a regular basis.

7974 is up 5% tonight

YESSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm in the red, better keep going up! I'm expecting it to gup until Q3 results, might go down and up here and there depending on market news but it should go up nonetheless! :)

...On the news that the Yen continues to weaken.

That's biscuit wheels on the Nintendo Profit Gravy Train.

Why is there a discrepancy between the movement of 7974 and the US ADR?

Now should be a good time to buy...

Here's the basic relationship.

The U.S. ADR is worth 1/8th of an ordinary Nintendo Share.  To see how this works:

One ordinary 7974 share is at, say 9000 Yen/Share.  At today's exchange-rates of about 88 Yen/Dollar, that's $102.27.  But now you have to divide that by 8, to get the value of U.S. NTDOY shares.

So at 9000 Yen for a 7974 share, you should see the ADR translate to $12.78 / share with an exchange rate of 88 Yen/Dollar.

Basically ADR's are held by a bank and even though they are subject to supply and demand, like any stock on the NYSE or NASDAQ - there is an arbitrager that eventually adjusts the prices to align with current exchange-rates.

This balancing act accounts for the % movement discrepancies.

If you're at all confident in the Wii U catching on and the 3DS rebounding with a Pokemon release...there hasn't been a better time to buy Nintendo than right now, since right before the Wii was released.

What does the 3DS have to rebound from?  It already rebounded in 2011 with a price cut and release of a few main Nintendo IPs.

Purely from a buttomline perspective, not meeting unit sales projections:

1. For Wii and DS would be horribly bad, due to assured profits gone, so if they beat internal projections, nothing but upside.

2. For 3DS, bad but since it just came into profitability in Sept quarter, it's hard to imagine too big of a per unit profit there.

3. For Wii U, I don't think this is going to have as nasty a sting. If you are losing money per unit, selling less results in less losses not more. My personal guess on the Reggie 1 software sale claim is that he told the truth, except, Nintendo guessed wrong on how many Basic units would be sold. It is all but obvious that the delux package was a better value. Basic on the other hand, most likely was counted on to produce some profits or produce less losses. We all know by now, whites did not sell well at all.

More important than today's price movement is the seemingly agreed upon targetby BOJ to explicitly pursue a 2% inflation target. This means all out money printing as the nation is really deflationary. Yen has potential to shoot past 95 to the dollar before any meaningful correction takes place. The most important date in 2013 isnt Pokemon release, but 3/31/2013. If Yen can close above 90, this singular event will overshadow any operational setbacks.