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Forums - Sales Discussion - Who do you think will win the console wars?

CrazzyMan on 22 January 2008

@Stever89, i saw many xbots today at n4g, who said, that they would gladly buy ps3 for 299$. And that were Sony haters.

Imagine, how many people will buy ps3 at 149$-199$.
If there will be ps3 pricedrop in January, then PS3 will easy do 20 mln., with total 30 mln. by the end of 2008.
Or around 25 mln. on November 17th.
Though without FFXIII and GT5 this year, it will be hardier to do. =) But i hope they will be released this year. =)

PS3 is amazing media center for 299$. And it`s a must have for 199$. =) Really, who wouldn`t buy? maybe around 10% of sony haters, in worst case. =))

p.s. funny how with logic  and math you wanted to prove, that ps3 can`t reach 100 mln. and in the end you proved that it can. =))



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

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Username2324 on 22 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
 

Nope, not even close to correct, since around 60% of Wii owners have HD capable TV's, in fact my parents recently bought a LCD screen and used the Wii on it they thought the graphics were amazing, just goes to show that the mass market doesn't care

Really.... Where would you be getting these statistics? I have yet to meet someone with a Wii hooked up to a HDTV, and your parents have obviously never seen anything in HD, and you yourself probably havent or you'd realize just how horrible the graphics are for the Wii especially with a HDTV.

 



Slimebeast on 22 January 2008
Stever89 said:
Slimebeast said:
Stever89 said:
Slimebeast said:
@Stever89

my response


http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=39306&end=39404

There you have it. That timeline shows the 500--->$400 effect, more than 50% rise in sales. The price drop happened in early october (in US it was a week or 10 days later). (I didnt choose to show earlier than august, because you had a firesale effect then when the 60GB model went down to $500, because Sony wanted to get rid of the SKU).

 


Eh. Ok. I'll give it to ya. That's not any different than what I showed you, except you narrowed down the timeline, but since I didn't know the date of the pricecut, I couldn't really do. It definitely an increase, but it's too bad it came late in the year, because the holiday starts soon after. And that's the relesae of the 40GB right?

It's really not THAT much. When you said explosion, I kinda went crazy. Yes, 50% increase. Good increase, no doubt. We'll have to see what the weekly sales look like in a few weeks to see if that increase actual hold, sound good?

And looking at it this way shows the increase was only Others, before dropping a bit, then holiday season starts...

 

Yes yes, in my world, and in the battle between X360 and PS3 50% is an enormous increase (Wii is unstoppable, I don't pay much attention to it's crazy sales). Of course I don't think those 50% will be sustained over more than a couple of months, then perhaps go down to more like 20-30%, but that's still a lot in the battle.

 Now holidays screwed up the comparisons a bit, but january and so on will be interesting to see if Sony keeps selling pretty much exactly like the X360 WW. And as I foresee, if the X360 will take a 20% WW lead in march due to a price cut (with that bigger spike in the first month).

 

 



Stever89 on 22 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:
@Stever89, i saw many xbots today at n4g, who said, that they would gladly buy ps3 for 299$. And that were Sony haters.

Imagine, how many people will buy ps3 at 149$-199$.
If there will be ps3 pricedrop in January, then PS3 will easy do 20 mln., with total 30 mln. by the end of 2008.
Or around 25 mln. on November 17th.
Though without FFXIII and GT5 this year, it will be hardier to do. =) But i hope they will be released this year. =)

PS3 is amazing media center for 299$. And it`s a must have for 199$. =) Really, who wouldn`t buy? maybe around 10% of sony haters, in worst case. =))

I already said this once already: "The plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data." Thank you famousringo for your wise words."

I don't think 20 million in one year is "easy." the PS2 managed one year to sell 20 million units, and that was it's third year, so you can't even say it was because of GTA and FFX and GT3, since they were mostly launched in the PS2 first/second year (depending on the region). The Wii only managed 14 million. If the PS3 can sell 20 million this year, then yes, the Wii will reach 60 million by the end of 2008.

Also imagine how many people will buy a Wii for $149 when they drop the price (if they ever do).

Like the Wii price drop, I doubt the PS3 will sell 20 million this year alone, even with big games and price drops.  



cool48 on 22 January 2008

Ok I'll go with:

PS3: 75M-95M

Xbox 360: 45M-65M

Wii: 95M-115M



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swyggi on 22 January 2008

Excellent, thanks.



This will only take a moment of your time. *steals your watch*

zackblue on 22 January 2008

If the trend continues I see the wii easily winning, thats an "if".

Also, dtewi made this thread to make vg$ lol



 

 2008 end of year predictions:

PS3: 22M

360: 25M

wii: 40M

Slimebeast on 22 January 2008
Username2324 said:
Slimebeast said:
leo-j said:
wii: 50-110M
ps3:60-100M
X360:35-50M

Com'on Leo. You have such huge spans, it's ridiculous. Even an imbecill can say "between 50 and 110 mill" and be right in the end. With 8459 posts on these forums one would think you would know a little more about prediction skills than this.


 I find it funny you should talk about his prediction skills (granted he really shouldnt have such a large gap) since your own predictions for 2008 say that the 360 will sell more than the PS3, even though in the past few weeks alone the PS3 has outsold the 360, and there are still alot of great games on the way, where's your logic in that?

Thanks for agreeing on the gap thingy.

Yes, PS3 had a great christmas, but remember that MS went into the fall/holiday season with lots of confidense and didnt counter the $400 PS3 with anything but the x-mas game bundle. People seems to have forgot that. So therefor, I think MS saved their price drop for later. Logic says it will come in the spring.

 About PS3 games. Their big problem is that the AAA titles refuse to show up in time. I can only see MGS4 as a system seller in 2008, and somewhat GT5. But just as Halo 3 didn't sell more than perhaps half a mill X360's, I think there won't be millions of people getting a $400 PS3 for MGS4 or GT5. And LBP is an interesting title, but more for the casuals that buy $200 consoles or the Wii (would be a perfect game for PS2).

Btw, this week the X360 started to outsell the PS3 WW again, by a small margin. That margin will increase when we have the $279 X360 Pro in march.

That's my logic.

 

 



Username2324 on 22 January 2008
Stever89 said:
Username2324 said:
To me, sales dont really matter much, just because it sells more does not mean it is better. Probably the main factor in the Wii's success is its price point, so just because it sells more does not mean its the more enjoyable console, the 360 lots of games but plagued with hardware problems, PS3 Blu-ray compatible but high price and not as many games.

Anyways, in sales, I'd say the Wii and PS3 will be pretty close at the end of the generation. I expect Wii sales to drop dramatically by the end of this year or next, people will begin to realize what a rip off it is when they purchase a HDTV, with that being said I expect PS3 sales to take off once HD DVD dies seeing as it plays Blu-rays and plays games in High Definition. I foresee a slow death of sales for the 360 seeing as how its not cheap, and does not have a level of HD-ness comparable to the PS3 (especially since PS3 games are estimated to be only using about 20% of the Cell's potential)

So, PS3 and Wii close for 1st, 360 last.

AHH PRICE POINT ADVANTAGE. Just because it sells more doesn't mean it's the more enjoyable console? Well that's a matter of opinion.

I haven't been a console gamer since the N64 days because I found no reason to continue buying consoles that, to me, gave me no more "enjoyment" than the N64 did. As games were no longer made for the N64 after the PS2/GC/Xbox were launched, I became mostly a PC gamer. Now with the Wii, I can experience something new. Not high end graphics (Supreme Commander anyone?), but something that's not completely possible with anything else. I'm not a big fan of FPS, especially on consoles, since I totally suck at the controls, but with the Wii I can aim and shoot. It's not really any easier than dual analog sticks, but to me, it's easier. But that's just me. Also, watching the PES2008 video using those controls, I'm actually excited about a football video game, which has never happened. I don't even like football all that much. I do love American football, and so I've started playing Madden again (though I haven't actually bought the game yet). But that's only because of the Wii and it's unique abilities.

I also don't think that the HD thing is going to be the "turning" point of the generation. If sales won't tail off until the end of next year (which will be the Wiis third year anyhow, when sales of all consoles should drop, according to past trends), then it'll hardly be a turning point, because looking at sales trends of the 7th generation up to this point, the Wii will be at nearly 60 million, and that's only if Nintendo doesn't raise production (and if the Wii continues to sell out massively). At the end of the third year, the PS2 was at 52 million, and all know how it's compeditors did.

As for the PS3 and Wii tieing, I could actually agree with you, since the Wii might only have a lifespan of 6 years (so there are 5 more years left, meaning end of 2012, possibly not until the end of 2013), whereas the PS3 probably will have a longer lifespan, depending on too many factors to know for sure. See my previous post (the long one) for more detail.


 I hate when people give Wii the title of "Unique gameplay" they seem to forget that the PS3 has motion sensing too, a far more accurate sensor as well. Play some of the PS3's games, they are unique in themselves, they arent like the Wii where its only a swing, or a pitch, no need for that annoying sensor box either. Uncharted:Drakes Fortune, uses traditional controls and motion sensing to keep your balance on logs and narrow passes, Warhawk motion sensing in the Air or in Ground Vehicles while using normal controls on foot. NBA 2k7/2k8 motion sensing to shoot free throws, Motorstorm has motion sensing, Blazing Angels 1&2 both have motion sensing, Rub a Dub a very unique downloadable game for the PS3 is entirely motion sensing, Toy Home another downloadable game using motion sensing, and again some unique gameplay. These are the only games that I own that have it, so I couldnt name all the PS3 titles that can either switch between controls and motion sensing or incorporate both into the game. So I suggest you either buy a PS3 or spend alot of time with someone who has one and you will realize the Wii is not as nearly as glamorous as you think it is.



Stever89 on 22 January 2008
Slimebeast said:
stuff...

 

Yes yes, in my world, and in the battle between X360 and PS3 50% is an enormous increase (Wii is unstoppable, I don't pay much attention to it's crazy sales). Of course I don't think those 50% will be sustained over more than a couple of months, then perhaps go down to more like 20-30%, but that's still a lot in the battle.

Now holidays screwed up the comparisons a bit, but january and so on will be interesting to see if Sony keeps selling pretty much exactly like the X360 WW. And as I foresee, if the X360 will take a 20% WW ead in march due to a price cut (with that bigger spike in the first month).

 

 


 I see where you are coming from and I agree to a point I guess. PS3 beating the 360 is very important at this point, because it looks ever more difficult to beat the Wii, and no one wants to be last. The only problem with percentages (and I am as guility as anyone, see my last post to CrazzyMan), is that the smaller the size compared to the growth, the harder it is to get a good idea of what is really happening. I also see you made a percentage error. The increase is actually 100%. Yes, that is most definitely great. But, 100% of 80,000s, is only 80,000 units, bringing the total to 160,000 (a little lower than that). The Wii only had to increase 40% to increase the same amount number of unit wise. If the Wii had increased 100%, it would have sold 400,000, which is still a ration of 2.37 to 1. But it's being outsold by more units. This is how people "cherry pick" data to make what they want to say look better. And I know you were not looking at Wii sales, but when I look at sales, I have to include all data. The mere fact that the PS3 is selling on par if not better than the 360 at this point in their lives is enough to say a 100% increase is not enough (it was on par with it even to that point). It needs to increase 200% for a few weeks after the price cut, and maintain that elevated sales for months, hopefully around a 35% or more increase after sales stabilize. 20% increase only grows it to 96,000 for that week without a price cut. It needs a 75% increase for that week without the pricecut, or 140,000 units, which puts it much farther ahead of the 360 than a small 100% price cut increase does.

But you are correct. And like I said, let us wait for better numbers toward the beginning of Feb, perhaps March, so that we can really know.