I kinda think Nintendo needs this game for next Christmas.
3D Mario even if EAD Tokyo can get it is not enough of a big deal.
Smash Bros. is probably near where being done and neither is Zelda (not that Nintendo should bank on that franchise either). Maybe a Donkey Kong Country game could be ready, but with 2D Mario and Rayman already being pushed hard on the system, I think the machine probably needs something else.
Mario Kart ... they should just beef up the staff and make sure it's out by next December.
Also they can milk DLC by way of DLC packs for retro courses and battle maps for a long time too.