You don't invest much do you?

At the end of August until the middle of October Nintendo was trading at much higher volumes than they typically do as day traders and short term speculators bought Nintendo's stock in the hopes that a strong Wii U launch would increase the stock price. When the launch did not have that effect they dumped the stock to cut their losses. These speculators don't care what Nintendo's projections are, they only care whether public perception of the success of the launch drives the stock price higher.

Essentially, they're not that much different from console scalpers, they don't care whether Nintendo sells 100,000 or 1,000,000 units in 2012 as long as the re-sale price of the system on ebay turns them a healthy profit.

No, but negative speculation will drive the stock price down whether or not Nintendo is on track to meet launch window projections. As such, we can use the stock price as a measure of how speculators feel, but nothing is definite until Nintendo comes out with official numbers.

Essentially ...

Short term price changes on a stock are driven by sentiment, while longer term trends are driven by the fundimentals.

Or to put it another way, the change in the value of Nintendo's stock from the beginning of October to today has been driven by people's feelings about a couple weeks sales of the Wii U while the long term value of Nintendo's stock is determined by the next few years of sales of the 3DS and Wii U.

What I find really stupid is our gaming media. They got into this business because they love games. Yet they have become so fanboysist, elitist, hardcore, ect that they forget to watch their mouths. Take E3 for example. They are so worried about declaring a "winner" that they will bolster up one and knock down another and spread this word.

Now what do investors see. They see a crap load of negative news surrounding a stock of theirs. They sell.

Heck look at casual games. For a lot of companies, their Profits are coming mainly from these casual games and their hardcore games are the ones that are losing money for them. Yet when a casual game is announced, the gaming media rips that company a new one, again bad press = people sell their stock. All because some gaming journalist don't like that type of game. It has nothing to do with how good of a business move it is. Yet these investors just see the bad press.

I'm not saying they need to praise everything, but they need to quit bashing things as hard as they do solely on personal taste.  Bash something when it deserves it and is bad.  Not because you don't want a pet game.

I agree that the media's reaction to a lot of games is very odd ...

While I understand why someone might not like a game like Just Dance, inexpensive games that sell well (like Just Dance) offset the expensive games that didn't sell well and keep publishers afloat.

Yup I'm feeling the pain. Got in at 14.00$, went as high as 17.50$ said nah its guna go up :( So yeah tomorrow ima be in the negative however its stocks, so they are volatile. For example, Apple shed over 11% since last week so I'm not to worried. The short term is worrying, the long term seems right. I guess we will see if my investment pays off.

At 13 this may be worth a shot. I think 2013 they will bounce back a bit. If I net $500 maybe I will buy a Wii U.

i bought at 16 over a month ago. Bad move I guess. But if my valuation of the company is correct I should see a gain within the next year or two. At least I have Take Two stock to make up for the losses (bought at $8.50).

That is odd because the Tokyo Stock Exchange has remained relatively even or gone up a tad the last week or so, so this must be investors being worried about Nintendo in specific.

I think the 3DS is probably a case for concern, their November NPD of 3DS sales were down like 35% this year, even though the 3DS has NSMB2 and the new XL models this year, it's actually declining year over year in North America, so that's troubling. I'm not sure why NOA did not have that MK7 bundle at least for Black Friday week (or y'know how about like the white 3DS XL and blue 3DS, NOA?). 

Wii U is a newborn, so it's hard to put too much pressure on it to carry the company, it's selling OK to good in North America and Japan thus far. UK looks very weak, but Germany/France/Sweden probably are stronger. I think they will miss that 5.5 million target though. 

The bright spot for Nintendo this holiday season is Animal Crossing's performance in Japan, I think that game has over performed Nintendo's expectations internally.

nothing has actually happened. I have been watching this stock for the last 6 months and i got in and out. Everything is speculation, since the rise and fall we have seen no financials. Last time Nintendo reported their loss a while ago the stock actually went up a few percent, that's the kind of expectations people had of it.