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F0X said:


No, but negative speculation will drive the stock price down whether or not Nintendo is on track to meet launch window projections. As such, we can use the stock price as a measure of how speculators feel, but nothing is definite until Nintendo comes out with official numbers.


Essentially ...

Short term price changes on a stock are driven by sentiment, while longer term trends are driven by the fundimentals.

Or to put it another way, the change in the value of Nintendo's stock from the beginning of October to today has been driven by people's feelings about a couple weeks sales of the Wii U while the long term value of Nintendo's stock is determined by the next few years of sales of the 3DS and Wii U.