5.5-6 million is the same stock number has used for the shipments of both the GameCube and Wii through their first March (which is Nintendo's fiscal year end).

GameCube missed hitting 6 million.

Wii got it (obviously).

Wii U will probably miss these targets unless Japan really comes through for them.

Comparing to the 360/PS3 may give some comfort, but the reality those were very future proof systems that had a very long runway ahead of them, so a slower first year for the 360/PS3 consoles wasn't as big of a deal. In effect you could say the 360 basically launched a year ahead of when it should have (and MS paid the price with overheating systems to push the machine out by 2005). PS3's first year was anchored by that monstrous price tag. 

The Wii U is going to be very dated in a few years time, it doesn't have the luxury of having just a "better than PS3" first year as being a good thing. It needs to sell great in its first year.

Wii U could have stronger legs than the Wii depending on third-party support. With a controller that doesn't get in the way of the tradition (which third-parties seem to thrive on), there is no excuse for particularly vacant release schedules, much less dusty GamePads.

Down with copiers, both kinds.

nice it's doing great compared to the HD consoles last gen! didn't know it was that bad for both of them.

will be interesting to see what will happen from now until March next year!

There is plenty of wii u's in australia. Wii was sold out and very hard to find down under - i dont see the same thing happening for the wii u. I predict around 3-4.5 million Wii u's by the end of Q1. Its a solid start to Wii U's life if it does sell around the 5 million mark.

The numbers is this table really caught my attention.

By curious cooincidence, if you divide sales by end of March by November sales you get the following ratios:

Wii - 5.46

X360 - 5.45

PS3 - 5.44

If this were to hold true (not suggesting that it will for a number of reasons) the WiiU sales at the end of March would be about 4.3 million.

Not many consoles do Wii numbers. I think people's expectations might be too high. That being said with MH and DQ10 in Japan, the thing is going to be a monster.

I dont believe Nintendo will reach 5.5 million at the end of their fiscal year but im not underestinating Dragon quest X and Monster Hunter Ultimate. Anything can happen when you have a Monster Hunter game releasing in Japan. It might easily go past 3 million before the end of the year.

That's interesting! Good observation.

4.3 is not shabby at all if it manages that, even if it misses Nintendo's target by a million.

I don't understand why Nintendo never learn from past experiences. Looks like they don't intend to release anything significant before winter 2013. Who's going to buy the system in the next 12 months? Even the hardcore Nintendo fans (like me) will hold off.

Why can't they release something big in, like, march? Big = 3DMario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Metroid, Paper Mario, F-Zero, Starfox, Yoshi, something new! I bought Wii when Mario Galaxy came out, looks like it's going to be the same pattern. How is it smart not to build momentum in a system's first year? I don't get it.

Imagine Wii U launching with Mario Kart. o_O

On topic, unless Nintendo do something surprising, I don't think it will sell according to their expectations, sadly. The upside is that there will be a price drop soon.