1. Sony han't "stolen" anything. Market share is a horrible judge because the 360 started with 100% of the market. The 360 could have outsold the PS3 100:1, and it still would have lost market share. The truth is the PS3, despite a huge PS2 fanbase and an overwhelmingly 360-hostile environment in the East, the PS3 has essentially kept pace with the 360. That's not bad, but it's far less than Sony hoped, and I'm sure far less than you expected.

2. $299 has never been the "sweet spot". Consoles generally need to hit $199 to truly take off, and the 360 will almost certainly hit that a good year ahead of the PS3.

3. At best, it will only match the Wii for a short period after the price cut. PS3 production simply isn't anywhere near Wii levels, and Wii is sure to be ramped up even further this year. 

4. If the 360 and Wii sell at their 2007 pace throughout 2008 (which is unlikely given the Wii will increse production and 360 will almsost certainly see a deep price cut), that would give them approximately 63 million units worldwide. That would mean the PS3 would need to sell over 20 million units in 2008, well above the Wii's record setting, supply constrained pace for 2007. Even half that would be better than the 360's 2007 sales, and that would only get the PS3 to 23-24 % (18-19m PS3's out of 81 m consoles). Math is a good tool, Leo. Try using it when making your predictions.

5. I checked the Wii sales on the front page. Shouldn't you be banned right now?

I think it would be extremely helpful and increase sales madly.

Leo I think you missed the basics of market share.

In order for the PS3 to pass the 360 in market share it must pass it in total sales as well. Do you really think that is going to happen this year?

Keep in mind that every 1% is gained and lost by someone. Since the Wii's market share is also on the rise the 360 is going to be losing market share to the Wii and the PS3. This means that in order for the PS3 to pass 30% the 360 must drop below 30% (PS3 needs to gain ~10% to hit 30% and the 360 needs to lose around 6% to hit 30%, WW %'s).

1) Market share for the PS3 has increased sometime over these past couple of weeks.

2) X360 is losing some market share to the PS3 a little, but some of that is also going to the Wii.

3) Triple-A title for the PS3 has hit: Ratchet & Clank, Warhawk, Uncharted, Unreal Tournament, Lair. All those titles did pretty good but none actually boosted sales. What boosted sales was by percents:

Holiday rush: 30%
PS3 40GB: 50%
Software: 20 %

The 40GB helped out a lot. I don't see a price cut happening anytime soon. What Sony needs to rely on is the software. If developers can send out exclusive games and keep the release dates firm then the PS3 is on track and ready to hit it's prime.

Currently the PS3 isn't doing anything as for the software side. That 40GB PS3 is what carrying the PS3 through these weeks.

Price cut will happen sometime late 2008 into early 2009.

It was after the 2nd year (May 2002) that the PS2 cut price to $199 in the US and THAT is when it's sales jumped noticably:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2®1=America&cons2=PS2®2=America&cons3=PS2®3=America&start=37066&end=37444

However, if you note the next chart, you'll see that the price cut did nothing to change the the PS2's standing in sales - it was #1 and remained #1. The XBox and GCN cut prices at almost the same time, and increased in roughly equivilent proportions (the GCN less so because it had a smaller price drop).  It really did nothing to alter the existing status quo - the PS2 was out in front, and stayed in front, the XB and GCN were close and remained close.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=America&cons2=GC&reg2=America&cons3=XB&reg3=America&start=37066&end=37444

Moreover, if you look at the entire history, that appears to the be only price cut with a noticable, long term effect on sales. Other than normal holiday bumps, the sales pretty much stayed flat (with a slight decline) for the rest of the generation.

Too soon. Wait for the 360 to drop price, let that boost fall, then have a big one right before a major release that can carry through to the holiday season.

I think its better to release before 360's price cut. Then the 360 price cut would have less effect, and been seen as a desperation move against Sony.

They should drop price to $299 now, ride the Blu-ray wave, then release MGS4 in March, and release a GTAIV bundle in April.

They have to go for the throat. GTA is the only title that really matters IMO to sony that is on the 360.

They need to be the brand associated with that game, and that would be the perfect time to win back NA from the 360. After that the 360 would ride out the rest of this generation in 3rd.

**And im not trying to start any more fanboy nonsense im just saying GTA is Sony's best chance to win back NA. If they have momentum at that point huge gains can be made in NA. 

To the OP, if the PS3 dropped to $299 soon, then it will most likely reach 30% market. (it only has 10% to go).

Now will they do it? They can if they want to. I think $299 was the origonal price point they wanted to hit at launch, but was forced to launch early due to the 360 coming out faster then expected.

If they lower it to $299, they won't look desperate, they will just be achieving the price point they wanted to hit in the first place.

If Sony was allowed to wait until they thought the console was ready, they would have released it this Christmas, and every negative aspect of the PS3 that ppl have would have never existed.

My guess is there will be a price drop around the release of GTA. Plus, I think Sony would like to, for once, force MS to make a move, and not look reactionary by lowering the price based on something MS has done. 

 Wrong answer. If you look at how much people are willing to pay for a used PS3 (345$ at Amazon.com) vs. a used Wii (420$ at Amazon.com), it's clear that the price is not the driving force behind the stellar Wii sales.

So you don't think that people would see 2 $100 price reductions in 12 months for a system which is being outsold (by a wide margin) by one system in every region and another system in North America would look desperate?

The only way I think Sony could pull it off is if Microsoft reduced the XBox 360 by $100 and they matched the price reduction ...