CVG

Games industry analysts have weighed in with US sales predictions for the month of November, ahead of the NPD Group's release of official market data this Thursday.

Perhaps most interestingly, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter and fellow analyst firm EEDAR both expect Wii U to have sold 450,000 units last month, a figure impacted more by a slower-than-expected production schedule than by disappointing demand, according to the former. In comparison, the pair forecast Xbox 360 sales of at least 1,350,000.

Pachter also predicted a Wii U software attach rate of three games per console, suggesting that 1.3 million software units were sold in November, generating sales likely approaching $80 million.

Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz was less optimistic, forecasting that Wii U games generated roughly $50 million in retail software sales, which would be slightly above first month sales for the original Wii.

Elsewhere, analysts expect November software sales to be led by new releases including Black Ops 2, Halo 4 and Assassin's Creed 3.

Pachter forecast 8.5 million Black Ops 2 sales, "slightly below" last November's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3, while Creutz expects the game to have shifted 7.9 million, down 11 per cent year-on-year.

However, Creutz points out that Modern Warfare 3 was on sale for an extra week during last November's NPD reporting period. "Call of Duty sales will not be comparable on an apples/apples basis," he said. "We think that getting a real read on the y/y performance of CoD will not be possible until December NPD data comes out.

Creutz also predicted Halo 4 sales of 2.9 million units, Assassin's Creed 3 sales of 2.6 million, and Need for Speed: Most Wanted sales of 469,000 units.

Wedbush / EEDAR November hardware sales estimates (change year-on-year):

360 - 1,400,000 (-17%) / 1,350,000 (-20%)

PS3 - 700,000 (-22%) / 850,000 (-5%)

Wii U 450,000 (n/a) / 450,000 (n/a)

3DS - 440,000 (-45%) / 800,000 (0%)

Wii - 435,000 (-50%) / 170,000 (-80%)

DS - 375,000 (7%) / 260,000 (-26%)

Vita 190,000 (n/a) / 190,000 (n/a)

PSP - 9,500 (-96%) / 8,000 (-92%)

PS2 - 500 (-98%) / (n/a)

Total - 4,000,000 (-18%) / 4,088,000 (-16%)

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/381710/wii-u-sold-450k-units-in-the-us-last-month-black-ops-2-as-many-as-85m-analysts/

Indeed. Also surprised that EEDAR expected 170,000 Wii when Nintendo said they sold 300,000 on BF week alone.

NPD should be fun this month for everyone. Haven't been this eager for one in, well... about 11 months.

What day does Nov. NPD track up until? Does it include Black Friday week?

These analysts have also been wrong in the past.

yeah the variance in the 3DS numbers is alarming, someone is WAY off, maybe even both

Then those EEDAR Wii numbers are even more mind boggling. I can't believe these people get paid good money to make such crazy predictions like that. Especially considering official number reports already far surpass them.  O_o

PS3 - 700,000 (-22%) / 850,000 (-5%)
3DS - 440,000 (-45%) / 800,000 (0%)
Wii - 435,000 (-50%) / 170,000 (-80%)
DS - 375,000 (7%) / 260,000 (-26%)

I'm gonna root for the higher bids.

It seems EEDAR completely missed Nintendo's Black Friday week sales announcement.

These guys have no actual qualifications. It's amazing media quotes them.