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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predicting the Next-Gen: The Future of PS4 and X3ox

 

Am I right in my analysis?

Hellz to the yeah! 39 32.23%
 
Oh, Heeeellz no! 43 35.54%
 
I think you're forgettin... 24 19.83%
 
I'm too stupid to unders... 12 9.92%
 
Total:118
Jay520 on 22 November 2012
DanneSandin said:

I agree, but I don't know what kind of strategy Sony could use to win next gen. 3rd party exclusive is a by gone era; and that's what made the PS1&2 so very, very successful! No 3rd party exclusives=fail for sony. Well, fail is perhaps a bit too harsh, but it's what makes and breaks them, as made obvious by the Xbox360. IMO.

Sony/Microsoft probably aren't going to win another generation unless they have some high-selling console feature or their first-party somehow drastically improves to Nintendo's level. That doesn't mean they will fail though; not in the slightest. This generation should be a testament to that. Wiithout 3rd party exclusives, the PS3 and 360 have sold 70m each (a rarity in the gaming industry). This should be clear evidence that the PS4 isn't going to fail next generation, so long as they make a few smart decisions.

The PS3 launched at an extremely high price, with little support for the first year, and an extremely difficult architecture. With all these disadvantages, the PS3 still did not fail in terms of hardware sales. So, if Sony fixes these problems, I don't see any scenario where the PS4 will fail. Instead, I see it selling at least 70m, which shows a success in terms of hardware sales. I don't know what position Sony will be in though, but I can't see them failing.



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KeptoKnight on 22 November 2012
Jay520 said:
DanneSandin said:

I agree, but I don't know what kind of strategy Sony could use to win next gen. 3rd party exclusive is a by gone era; and that's what made the PS1&2 so very, very successful! No 3rd party exclusives=fail for sony. Well, fail is perhaps a bit too harsh, but it's what makes and breaks them, as made obvious by the Xbox360. IMO.

Sony/Microsoft probably aren't going to win another generation unless they have some high-selling console feature or their first-party somehow drastically improves to Nintendo's level. That doesn't mean they will fail though; not in the slightest. This generation should be a testament to that. Wiithout 3rd party exclusives, the PS3 and 360 have sold 70m each (a rarity in the gaming industry). This should be clear evidence that the PS3 isn't going to fail next generation.

The PS3 launched at an extremely high price, with little support for the first year, and an extremely difficult architecture. With all these disadvantages, the PS3 still did not fail in terms of hardware sales. So, if Sony fixes these problems, I don't see any scenario where the PS4 will fail. Instead, I see it selling at least 70m, which shows a success in terms of hardware sales. I don't know what position Sony will be in though, but I can't see them failing.

That is true. They released it with a high price, and they were the last ones. That is why I think is wiser as a Wiistation than XboxStation.

They are greener, they have the audience in line already, more first party titles than Microsoft. but of course like you said, "unless they have some high-selling console feature or their first-party somehow drastically improve."



Corey on 22 November 2012

I don't think there will be a big gap between the Ps4 and 720, Sony may be in a bad position financially but that does not stop them pushing out new technology all the time in areas where they are losing money, so for their gaming sector which is often profitable I would expect them to continue to invest a lot of money into it.

If the PS4 comes with a standard controller than It will definitely be substantially more powerful than the wiiu due to all that money spent on bundling an expensive controller will be spent equipping the console with better hardware.



JEMC on 22 November 2012

@DanneSandin: I got what you ment with install base, that's why I mentioned the audiences.

I'll use an example to put it more visually: Call of Duty: Black Ops.

Vgchartz data

Call Of Duty: Black Ops_ Xbox360: 13.66 mil.

Call Of Duty: Black Ops_ PS3 : 11.64 mil.

Call Of Duty: Black Ops_ Wii: 1.22 mil.

Where is the AUDIENCE for that game? On the Xbox360 and PS3.

Don't get me wrong, the number of consoles is also important, but it is not the only factor to consider.

Xbox360: 70mil. Audience = % of owners that bought Black Ops = 19.5 %. If xextbox sells 50mil and have the same audience, something very likely, that's 9.75 mil of CoDs sold. Do you really believe that someone will think "Bah, we just need develop for PS4/WiiU, we don't need the money from those extra 10 mil games"?

Publishers won't stop developing for a console, what they will do is add the other platform (WiiU) to their plans... if they consider that there is an audience for their games.



Please excuse my bad English.

Currently gaming on a PC with an i5-4670k@stock (for now), 16Gb RAM 1600 MHz and a GTX 1070

Steam / Live / NNID : jonxiquet    Add me if you want, but I'm a single player gamer.

Jay520 on 22 November 2012
KeptoKnight said:

That is true. They released it with a high price, and they were the last ones.

Yes, they were in last place, but I made no assertions of the PS4's position. The PS4 may very well be in 3rd place next gen. But it should still reach a healthy install base (70m+), especially if they fix the problems with the PS3, which I suspect they will do.



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007BondAgent on 22 November 2012

PS4>>720=WIIU



DanneSandin on 22 November 2012
HappySqurriel said:
Honestly, while I think it is a bad strategy in general, I think that if either manufacturer produces a (relatively) low performance system it only weakens both Sony and Microsoft; and it strengthens Nintendo.

Because they could release the same game across the PS3, XBox 360 and PC with (relatively) minor changes, third party publishers could ignore the Wii and target the bulk of their big titles to these platforms. If the PS4 and Wii U make a good choice for cross platform development and you need significantly higher budgets to produce a "true" XBox 720 game, the Wii U will get more third party support and the XBox 720 will get mostly enhanced ports ... For Sony, this means that they are in direct competition with a system that has Nintendo's first party developers and many of the same big third party titles as they have (who has a year head start which will likely translate into games selling better on that platform); and Microsoft has many of the same problems with the added issue that their system costs users more and (for the most part) demonstrates little in the way of added value.

I don't see how it is possible, but unless Sony and Microsoft both produce high end systems and can convince third party publishers to "shut-out" Nintendo I would expect their sales to fall.

Yes, I agree with that if the 3 consoles are similar in power Wii U will win next gen, simply because they have their 1st party games. But I don't know what else there is to do for Sony. MS could always up the specs, and try to gain market share by being the most powerful console. But what of Sony? What can they do? They can't compete with Nintendo's 1st party, nor can they compete in terms of power with MS, since MS have so much more money and can outspend Sony... No matter how things play out, I'm quite certain PS4 will end up last next gen.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

KeptoKnight on 22 November 2012
Jay520 said:
KeptoKnight said:

That is true. They released it with a high price, and they were the last ones.

Yes, they were in last place, but I made no assertions of the PS4's position. The PS4 may very well be in 3rd place next gen. But it should still reach a healthy install base (70m+), especially if they fix the problems with the PS3, which I suspect they will do.

O I am not saying "last ones," in a bad way.  They were the last ones but still managed to pull out 70 million which is a "good sign." SO I agree. With some adjustments and lean on to a greener side I say they WILL reach healthy install base. As long as they keep on pumping out 1st party like they did, I can see 2nd place.

* I know others will say Sony will be last but I think they can be 2nd.

*Overall I do say Wii-U wins next gen :X



Jay520 on 22 November 2012
DanneSandin said:

Yes, I agree with that if the 3 consoles are similar in power Wii U will win next gen, simply because they have their 1st party games. But I don't know what else there is to do for Sony. MS could always up the specs, and try to gain market share by being the most powerful console. But what of Sony? What can they do? They can't compete with Nintendo's 1st party, nor can they compete in terms of power with MS, since MS have so much more money and can outspend Sony... No matter how things play out, I'm quite certain PS4 will end up last next gen.

Power shouldn't even be a factor when deciding who will win next generation. This gen has showed a negative correlation with power and sales.



HoloDust on 22 November 2012

My guesstimate is (each > is 50%):

NextBox>PS4>>>WiiU

That's 1.5x and 2.5x, respectively, so that would mean WiiU most likely gets next-gen ports, if its user base is willing to buy them.