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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predicting the Next-Gen: The Future of PS4 and X3ox

 

Am I right in my analysis?

Hellz to the yeah! 39 32.23%
 
Oh, Heeeellz no! 43 35.54%
 
I think you're forgettin... 24 19.83%
 
I'm too stupid to unders... 12 9.92%
 
Total:118
runqvist on 22 November 2012
DanneSandin said:

Yes, I agree with that if the 3 consoles are similar in power Wii U will win next gen, simply because they have their 1st party games.


Like the gamecube and N64 did, right?



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HappySqurriel on 22 November 2012
platformmaster918 said:
DanneSandin said:
HappySqurriel said:
Honestly, while I think it is a bad strategy in general, I think that if either manufacturer produces a (relatively) low performance system it only weakens both Sony and Microsoft; and it strengthens Nintendo.

Because they could release the same game across the PS3, XBox 360 and PC with (relatively) minor changes, third party publishers could ignore the Wii and target the bulk of their big titles to these platforms. If the PS4 and Wii U make a good choice for cross platform development and you need significantly higher budgets to produce a "true" XBox 720 game, the Wii U will get more third party support and the XBox 720 will get mostly enhanced ports ... For Sony, this means that they are in direct competition with a system that has Nintendo's first party developers and many of the same big third party titles as they have (who has a year head start which will likely translate into games selling better on that platform); and Microsoft has many of the same problems with the added issue that their system costs users more and (for the most part) demonstrates little in the way of added value.

I don't see how it is possible, but unless Sony and Microsoft both produce high end systems and can convince third party publishers to "shut-out" Nintendo I would expect their sales to fall.

Yes, I agree with that if the 3 consoles are similar in power Wii U will win next gen, simply because they have their 1st party games. But I don't know what else there is to do for Sony. MS could always up the specs, and try to gain market share by being the most powerful console. But what of Sony? What can they do? They can't compete with Nintendo's 1st party, nor can they compete in terms of power with MS, since MS have so much more money and can outspend Sony... No matter how things play out, I'm quite certain PS4 will end up last next gen.

Sony has the best first party and has a much more diverse lineup than MS.  They have a plethora of genres represented in their first party stable and that's what sold their system this gen.  It's going to put them in second place and at least around 90 million even though they've been the most expensive, a year late, had inferior online at first, had no software until late 07, and had complex architecture.  If they correct those mistakes they can easily sell 100 million.

"Best" in terms of quality is highly subjective and difficult to quantify ... In terms of sales there really isn't any competition, while the lists are not entirely accurate the publisher/platform totals for each of the console manufacturers gives a rough approximation of their sales:

 

Nintendo on the DS: 342 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=DS&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Nintendo on the Wii: 378 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=Wii&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Sony on the PSP: 52 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PSP&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Sony on the PS3: 107 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PS3&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Microsoft on the XBox 360: 136 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=10313&platform=X360&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

 

While it is not entirely accurate, Nintendo is selling (roughly) 2.5 games for every game either Sony or Microsoft sell. If you take away their massive advantage with third party publishers, neither Sony or Microsoft's consoles are really competitive against a Nintendo system; and it could be argued that this is exactly the problem the PS-Vita is currently facing. While the PS-Vita doesn't (necessarily) have bad third party support, the fact that the 3DS has pretty decent third party support makes the platform dramatically more popular than the PS-Vita.



platformmaster918 on 22 November 2012
HappySqurriel said:
platformmaster918 said:
DanneSandin said:
HappySqurriel said:
Honestly, while I think it is a bad strategy in general, I think that if either manufacturer produces a (relatively) low performance system it only weakens both Sony and Microsoft; and it strengthens Nintendo.

Because they could release the same game across the PS3, XBox 360 and PC with (relatively) minor changes, third party publishers could ignore the Wii and target the bulk of their big titles to these platforms. If the PS4 and Wii U make a good choice for cross platform development and you need significantly higher budgets to produce a "true" XBox 720 game, the Wii U will get more third party support and the XBox 720 will get mostly enhanced ports ... For Sony, this means that they are in direct competition with a system that has Nintendo's first party developers and many of the same big third party titles as they have (who has a year head start which will likely translate into games selling better on that platform); and Microsoft has many of the same problems with the added issue that their system costs users more and (for the most part) demonstrates little in the way of added value.

I don't see how it is possible, but unless Sony and Microsoft both produce high end systems and can convince third party publishers to "shut-out" Nintendo I would expect their sales to fall.

Yes, I agree with that if the 3 consoles are similar in power Wii U will win next gen, simply because they have their 1st party games. But I don't know what else there is to do for Sony. MS could always up the specs, and try to gain market share by being the most powerful console. But what of Sony? What can they do? They can't compete with Nintendo's 1st party, nor can they compete in terms of power with MS, since MS have so much more money and can outspend Sony... No matter how things play out, I'm quite certain PS4 will end up last next gen.

Sony has the best first party and has a much more diverse lineup than MS.  They have a plethora of genres represented in their first party stable and that's what sold their system this gen.  It's going to put them in second place and at least around 90 million even though they've been the most expensive, a year late, had inferior online at first, had no software until late 07, and had complex architecture.  If they correct those mistakes they can easily sell 100 million.

"Best" in terms of quality is highly subjective and difficult to quantify ... In terms of sales there really isn't any competition, while the lists are not entirely accurate the publisher/platform totals for each of the console manufacturers gives a rough approximation of their sales:

 

Nintendo on the DS: 342 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=DS&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Nintendo on the Wii: 378 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=Wii&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Sony on the PSP: 52 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PSP&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Sony on the PS3: 107 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PS3&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Microsoft on the XBox 360: 136 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=10313&platform=X360&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

 

While it is not entirely accurate, Nintendo is selling (roughly) 2.5 games for every game either Sony or Microsoft sell. If you take away their massive advantage with third party publishers, neither Sony or Microsoft's consoles are really competitive against a Nintendo system; and it could be argued that this is exactly the problem the PS-Vita is currently facing. While the PS-Vita doesn't (necessarily) have bad third party support, the fact that the 3DS has pretty decent third party support makes the platform dramatically more popular than the PS-Vita.

they've had the smallest install base all generation (for all the reasons I already listed.  Let's take a look at the PS2 list and see how that goes.




Get Your Portable ID!Lord of Ratchet and Clank

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HappySqurriel on 22 November 2012
platformmaster918 said:
HappySqurriel said:
platformmaster918 said:
DanneSandin said:
HappySqurriel said:
Honestly, while I think it is a bad strategy in general, I think that if either manufacturer produces a (relatively) low performance system it only weakens both Sony and Microsoft; and it strengthens Nintendo.

Because they could release the same game across the PS3, XBox 360 and PC with (relatively) minor changes, third party publishers could ignore the Wii and target the bulk of their big titles to these platforms. If the PS4 and Wii U make a good choice for cross platform development and you need significantly higher budgets to produce a "true" XBox 720 game, the Wii U will get more third party support and the XBox 720 will get mostly enhanced ports ... For Sony, this means that they are in direct competition with a system that has Nintendo's first party developers and many of the same big third party titles as they have (who has a year head start which will likely translate into games selling better on that platform); and Microsoft has many of the same problems with the added issue that their system costs users more and (for the most part) demonstrates little in the way of added value.

I don't see how it is possible, but unless Sony and Microsoft both produce high end systems and can convince third party publishers to "shut-out" Nintendo I would expect their sales to fall.

Yes, I agree with that if the 3 consoles are similar in power Wii U will win next gen, simply because they have their 1st party games. But I don't know what else there is to do for Sony. MS could always up the specs, and try to gain market share by being the most powerful console. But what of Sony? What can they do? They can't compete with Nintendo's 1st party, nor can they compete in terms of power with MS, since MS have so much more money and can outspend Sony... No matter how things play out, I'm quite certain PS4 will end up last next gen.

Sony has the best first party and has a much more diverse lineup than MS.  They have a plethora of genres represented in their first party stable and that's what sold their system this gen.  It's going to put them in second place and at least around 90 million even though they've been the most expensive, a year late, had inferior online at first, had no software until late 07, and had complex architecture.  If they correct those mistakes they can easily sell 100 million.

"Best" in terms of quality is highly subjective and difficult to quantify ... In terms of sales there really isn't any competition, while the lists are not entirely accurate the publisher/platform totals for each of the console manufacturers gives a rough approximation of their sales:

 

Nintendo on the DS: 342 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=DS&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Nintendo on the Wii: 378 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=Wii&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Sony on the PSP: 52 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PSP&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Sony on the PS3: 107 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PS3&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Microsoft on the XBox 360: 136 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=10313&platform=X360&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

 

While it is not entirely accurate, Nintendo is selling (roughly) 2.5 games for every game either Sony or Microsoft sell. If you take away their massive advantage with third party publishers, neither Sony or Microsoft's consoles are really competitive against a Nintendo system; and it could be argued that this is exactly the problem the PS-Vita is currently facing. While the PS-Vita doesn't (necessarily) have bad third party support, the fact that the 3DS has pretty decent third party support makes the platform dramatically more popular than the PS-Vita.

they've had the smallest install base all generation (for all the reasons I already listed.  Let's take a look at the PS2 list and see how that goes.

 

In 5 years Nintendo sold 43% as much software on the Gamecube with 16% of the userbase than Sony sold in 10+ years on the PS2 ...

In a large part because of the GBA, at the time both the Gamecube and PS2 was alive Nintendo sold (roughly) as much software as the two or three next largest publishers combined. I don't remember the full list but I believe it was something like Nintendo, EA, Activision, (some company), Sony ...



archbrix on 23 November 2012
platformmaster918 said:
HappySqurriel said:
platformmaster918 said:

Sony has the best first party and has a much more diverse lineup than MS.  They have a plethora of genres represented in their first party stable and that's what sold their system this gen.  It's going to put them in second place and at least around 90 million even though they've been the most expensive, a year late, had inferior online at first, had no software until late 07, and had complex architecture.  If they correct those mistakes they can easily sell 100 million.

"Best" in terms of quality is highly subjective and difficult to quantify ... In terms of sales there really isn't any competition, while the lists are not entirely accurate the publisher/platform totals for each of the console manufacturers gives a rough approximation of their sales:

 

Nintendo on the DS: 342 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=DS&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Nintendo on the Wii: 378 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=Wii&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Sony on the PSP: 52 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PSP&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Sony on the PS3: 107 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PS3&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Microsoft on the XBox 360: 136 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=10313&platform=X360&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

 

While it is not entirely accurate, Nintendo is selling (roughly) 2.5 games for every game either Sony or Microsoft sell. If you take away their massive advantage with third party publishers, neither Sony or Microsoft's consoles are really competitive against a Nintendo system; and it could be argued that this is exactly the problem the PS-Vita is currently facing. While the PS-Vita doesn't (necessarily) have bad third party support, the fact that the 3DS has pretty decent third party support makes the platform dramatically more popular than the PS-Vita.

they've had the smallest install base all generation (for all the reasons I already listed.  Let's take a look at the PS2 list and see how that goes.

Gran Turismo 3 and 4 sold phenomenally well on PS2, but aside from that franchise what 1st party power sellers did Sony have?  You could take all of the rest of Sony's 1st party PS2 games (Jak & Daxter, Ratchet & Clank, etc) and combined they wouldn't come close to NSMB Wii's sales alone... and the PS2 sold 50m more units than the Wii has.  Granted, Mario's sales also include bundles, but when you factor in the selling power of Mario Kart, Smash Bros, (and Pokemon in the handheld market), Sony's 1st party exclusives can't hold a candle to Nintendo's from a sales perspective.

In fact, except for Gran Turismo games, no Sony 1st party exclusive has yet to outsell Super Mario 64 (N64) or Smash Bros Melee (GC); both of which were on consoles with far smaller install bases than any Sony console. 



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JimmyDanger on 23 November 2012
archbrix said:
platformmaster918 said:
HappySqurriel said:
platformmaster918 said:

Sony has the best first party and has a much more diverse lineup than MS.  They have a plethora of genres represented in their first party stable and that's what sold their system this gen.  It's going to put them in second place and at least around 90 million even though they've been the most expensive, a year late, had inferior online at first, had no software until late 07, and had complex architecture.  If they correct those mistakes they can easily sell 100 million.

"Best" in terms of quality is highly subjective and difficult to quantify ... In terms of sales there really isn't any competition, while the lists are not entirely accurate the publisher/platform totals for each of the console manufacturers gives a rough approximation of their sales:

 

Nintendo on the DS: 342 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=DS&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Nintendo on the Wii: 378 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=Wii&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Sony on the PSP: 52 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PSP&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Sony on the PS3: 107 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PS3&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Microsoft on the XBox 360: 136 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=10313&platform=X360&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

 

While it is not entirely accurate, Nintendo is selling (roughly) 2.5 games for every game either Sony or Microsoft sell. If you take away their massive advantage with third party publishers, neither Sony or Microsoft's consoles are really competitive against a Nintendo system; and it could be argued that this is exactly the problem the PS-Vita is currently facing. While the PS-Vita doesn't (necessarily) have bad third party support, the fact that the 3DS has pretty decent third party support makes the platform dramatically more popular than the PS-Vita.

they've had the smallest install base all generation (for all the reasons I already listed.  Let's take a look at the PS2 list and see how that goes.

Gran Turismo 3 and 4 sold phenomenally well on PS2, but aside from that franchise what 1st party power sellers did Sony have?  You could take all of the rest of Sony's 1st party PS2 games (Jak & Daxter, Ratchet & Clank, etc) and combined they wouldn't come close to NSMB Wii's sales alone... and the PS2 sold 50m more units than the Wii has.  Granted, Mario's sales also include bundles, but when you factor in the selling power of Mario Kart, Smash Bros, (and Pokemon in the handheld market), Sony's 1st party exclusives can't hold a candle to Nintendo's from a sales perspective.

In fact, except for Gran Turismo games, no Sony 1st party exclusive has yet to outsell Super Mario 64 (N64) or Smash Bros Melee (GC); both of which were on consoles with far smaller install bases than any Sony console. 


That's crazy talk!

Is that maybe a reason Sony went Pac-Man like munching up smaller studios during the PS2 days? Or was that all for love.

I'm gonna go with love.

Would make a great slogan for the next gen.

Sony = Doing it for the love.



archbrix on 23 November 2012
JimmyDanger said:
archbrix said:

Gran Turismo 3 and 4 sold phenomenally well on PS2, but aside from that franchise what 1st party power sellers did Sony have?  You could take all of the rest of Sony's 1st party PS2 games (Jak & Daxter, Ratchet & Clank, etc) and combined they wouldn't come close to NSMB Wii's sales alone... and the PS2 sold 50m more units than the Wii has.  Granted, Mario's sales also include bundles, but when you factor in the selling power of Mario Kart, Smash Bros, (and Pokemon in the handheld market), Sony's 1st party exclusives can't hold a candle to Nintendo's from a sales perspective.

In fact, except for Gran Turismo games, no Sony 1st party exclusive has yet to outsell Super Mario 64 (N64) or Smash Bros Melee (GC); both of which were on consoles with far smaller install bases than any Sony console. 

That's crazy talk!

Is that maybe a reason Sony went Pac-Man like munching up smaller studios during the PS2 days? Or was that all for love.

I'm gonna go with love.

Would make a great slogan for the next gen.

Sony = Doing it for the love.

Maybe they were just hungry...



Cobretti2 on 23 November 2012
KeptoKnight said:
DanneSandin said:
KeptoKnight said:
DanneSandin said:
JEMC said:

I agree with kain_kusanagi that Msoft will go the extra mile with the nextbox. If only because they have the money for it and because that's what they did with the xbox360 and worked wonders for them. They have gone from selling 22 millions to sell 70, earning a lot of money and being the "hardcore" console of choice in the US. Why do they have to change?

Sony will also try to make a big jump, but in their case they will try to lose as little money as possible. Yes, the currency of the Yen is hurting them, but don't forget that people bought PS3s at $499 and that thought they have always had the most expensive console this gen, they have sold almost as machines as Microsoft. They could launch it at $399 or $449 for a profit or very small loss and still be successful.

That's why we heard rumors of 8-core CPUs for the nextbox with an HD7xxx series GPU for the nextbox while we hear about APUs with an aditional GPU in Xfire.

I also belive MS will go the extra mile; if only because sony WON'T be able to. I'm just not sure that's the right way to proceed. That would mean that Wii U and PS4 would be similar in power and would be able to run the same game with only minor differences in graphics. Now, imagine if the WiiStation install base is 100 million while the x3ox install base is 50 million (we split the market evenly between the consoles). Which install base do you think 3rd party developers will choose to make games for? The similarly Wii U and PS4 with 100 million sold units, or the much more powerful x3ox with 50 million consoles sold? Hint: it's not the x3ox. For games to run properly on WiiStation 3rd parties will not use the raw power of the x3ox, because that would mean risking to NOT sell enough games on Wii U and PS4.

We'll have a reversed Wii situation


That's the most important question of this new generation!

Yes, and how will the install bases look like?!

This -----> WiiStation Vs XboX. I'll put money on it. Power is a thing of the past. =(


The answer is simple. They will develope the games to work on on WiiU and PS4 and jsut port it to the nextbox and whatever hardware boost naturally offers the game will be it. The only games that will look awesome will be nextbox exclusives.



 

 

Cobretti2 on 23 November 2012
007BondAgent said:
PS4>>720=WIIU

if this happens be prepared for the next james bond to be made by disney like the new star wars.



 

 

Cobretti2 on 23 November 2012
HappySqurriel said:
platformmaster918 said:
HappySqurriel said:
platformmaster918 said:
DanneSandin said:
HappySqurriel said:
Honestly, while I think it is a bad strategy in general, I think that if either manufacturer produces a (relatively) low performance system it only weakens both Sony and Microsoft; and it strengthens Nintendo.

Because they could release the same game across the PS3, XBox 360 and PC with (relatively) minor changes, third party publishers could ignore the Wii and target the bulk of their big titles to these platforms. If the PS4 and Wii U make a good choice for cross platform development and you need significantly higher budgets to produce a "true" XBox 720 game, the Wii U will get more third party support and the XBox 720 will get mostly enhanced ports ... For Sony, this means that they are in direct competition with a system that has Nintendo's first party developers and many of the same big third party titles as they have (who has a year head start which will likely translate into games selling better on that platform); and Microsoft has many of the same problems with the added issue that their system costs users more and (for the most part) demonstrates little in the way of added value.

I don't see how it is possible, but unless Sony and Microsoft both produce high end systems and can convince third party publishers to "shut-out" Nintendo I would expect their sales to fall.

Yes, I agree with that if the 3 consoles are similar in power Wii U will win next gen, simply because they have their 1st party games. But I don't know what else there is to do for Sony. MS could always up the specs, and try to gain market share by being the most powerful console. But what of Sony? What can they do? They can't compete with Nintendo's 1st party, nor can they compete in terms of power with MS, since MS have so much more money and can outspend Sony... No matter how things play out, I'm quite certain PS4 will end up last next gen.

Sony has the best first party and has a much more diverse lineup than MS.  They have a plethora of genres represented in their first party stable and that's what sold their system this gen.  It's going to put them in second place and at least around 90 million even though they've been the most expensive, a year late, had inferior online at first, had no software until late 07, and had complex architecture.  If they correct those mistakes they can easily sell 100 million.

"Best" in terms of quality is highly subjective and difficult to quantify ... In terms of sales there really isn't any competition, while the lists are not entirely accurate the publisher/platform totals for each of the console manufacturers gives a rough approximation of their sales:

 

Nintendo on the DS: 342 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=DS&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Nintendo on the Wii: 378 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1167&platform=Wii&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Sony on the PSP: 52 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PSP&genre=&minSales=0&results=200
Sony on the PS3: 107 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=1535&platform=PS3&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Microsoft on the XBox 360: 136 Million http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=10313&platform=X360&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

 

While it is not entirely accurate, Nintendo is selling (roughly) 2.5 games for every game either Sony or Microsoft sell. If you take away their massive advantage with third party publishers, neither Sony or Microsoft's consoles are really competitive against a Nintendo system; and it could be argued that this is exactly the problem the PS-Vita is currently facing. While the PS-Vita doesn't (necessarily) have bad third party support, the fact that the 3DS has pretty decent third party support makes the platform dramatically more popular than the PS-Vita.

they've had the smallest install base all generation (for all the reasons I already listed.  Let's take a look at the PS2 list and see how that goes.

 

In 5 years Nintendo sold 43% as much software on the Gamecube with 16% of the userbase than Sony sold in 10+ years on the PS2 ...

In a large part because of the GBA, at the time both the Gamecube and PS2 was alive Nintendo sold (roughly) as much software as the two or three next largest publishers combined. I don't remember the full list but I believe it was something like Nintendo, EA, Activision, (some company), Sony ...


43%. Now we know why the WiiU ram is 43% slower. NIntendo reminding us all how much software they sold on GCN. Those cryptic bastards.