Predicting the Next-Gen: The Future of PS4 and X3ox

[JEMC]

@DanneSandin: I got what you ment with install base, that's why I mentioned the audiences.

I'll use an example to put it more visually: Call of Duty: Black Ops.

Vgchartz data

Call Of Duty: Black Ops_ Xbox360: 13.66 mil.

Call Of Duty: Black Ops_ PS3 : 11.64 mil.

Call Of Duty: Black Ops_ Wii: 1.22 mil.

Where is the AUDIENCE for that game? On the Xbox360 and PS3.

Don't get me wrong, the number of consoles is also important, but it is not the only factor to consider.

Xbox360: 70mil. Audience = % of owners that bought Black Ops = 19.5 %. If xextbox sells 50mil and have the same audience, something very likely, that's 9.75 mil of CoDs sold. Do you really believe that someone will think "Bah, we just need develop for PS4/WiiU, we don't need the money from those extra 10 mil games"?

Publishers won't stop developing for a console, what they will do is add the other platform (WiiU) to their plans... if they consider that there is an audience for their games.