I know me and my friends just pay for it when we know we will use it.  Halo 4 came out we bought it for a few months for example.

I dunno, there seems to be alot of articles about this topic lately Id say its just websites fishing for hits. I doubt the Ps+ success is having much effect on xbox live users.

I'm not trying to put PS+ down or anything but there is a reason I said PS+ is not effecting XBL.  This is the numbers that sony released.

• 13 million: The number of hours of play-time that games in Plus' Instant Game Collection (the batch of free games offered to Plus subscribers) in the two months after the IGC was launched in early June.
• 12 million: The number of Trophies players unlocked in Instant Game Collection games in those two months.
• 93%: The percentage of players who intend to renew the service, according to a Sony survey (as long you renew Plus, you keep access to the games in the IGC; if you cancel, you lose access).
• 97%: the percentage of Plus users who tell Sony's survey-takers that they're extremely happy with the survey (ticking one of the top two boxes, or options, when answering how happy they are with the service). Sony says this is up 50% over a prior survey, from presumably before the IGC began.
  
  and this is the  1st week numbers of Halo 4
  
  Over 4,000,000 people played Halo on Xbox LIVE.
  13.5 million hours were spent playing Campaign.
  1.9 million hours were spent playing Spartan Ops.
  16 million hours were spent playing War Games.
  31.4 million hours were spent playing Halo 4.
  1,116,882 people completed the Campaign.
  6% of total players completed the Campaign on Legendary.
  43,335,060 achievements were unlocked.
  2,675,140,836 kills were earned in the Campaign.
  505,250,095 kills were earned in Spartan Ops.
  1,410,025,354 kills were earned in War Games.
  4,590,416,285 kills were earned playing Halo 4 on Xbox Live
  
  
  That means Halo 4 had more playtime in one week than PS+ has since it came out.  For the people who are getting PS+ that is great for them but I think PSN, Steam, and now Miiverse are bigger threats than PS+ because they are all free.

Lol thats why I said I doubt its having much effect on xbox live users :P Probably none at all.

Software trends?  The PS3 passed the 360 installed base quite awhile ago and that gap can only have grown with the sales gap the PS3 holds for this year.  I'm not sure what you mean otherwise.  I doubt that anyone would dispute that the 360 is in last place in terms of installed base, though the difference between it in the PS3 probably isn't very much.

As for proving the size of the 360 installed base, you're right, I don't see any current numbers and I didn't realize the previous numbers were that old.  All I can say is that the estimated installed base for the 360 was at 44M at the start of 2011.  I have no idea how to apply failure rates for the 360 since they vary greatly by model and calculating unattached consoles is even further beyond me.  If I had to guess, I'd say the 360 installed base now would probably be around 55-60M.

You're still mixing things up a bit, I think.  I don't mean to press the point, I just like clarity.  It was 25m Live accounts in the middle of 2010, "about half" of which were Gold.  So, you'd think at least 12m at that time, and probably 15m by the end of the year.

I just realized that I haven't addressed the OP yet, so I will.  Xbox Live is hardly dying.  Yes, growth is likely tapering off, but that's to be expected at the end of a hardware generation.  Live has zero chance of dying as long as there are yearly CoD releases and as long as the shooter genre remains strong in the west.  If Microsoft is smart, however, then they might need to increase the value of Gold next gen, which they probably will, though I imagine it will be in increasing access to non-gaming applications and functions more than anything.

You cant prove actual install bases. Software trends are the only way we can tell how many active gamers there are for both consoles. After COD and Halo 4 sales legs kick in, 360 would have sold more software this year then PS3. Sooooo if PS3 has a higher instal base.....weird how they are buying less games then 360 users.

Those websites obviously hate Xbox and won't admit that it's not going anywhere

Online gaming on PSN is the exact same as Live. There's no differace oh... Except people pay £40 a year for LIve and PSN is free. Also Gold 40million... Lol. Links? 

Last I checked PSN had 100 million active accounts and that was at E3 2010.all who can play online for free. 

If the online gaming is identical (and it is) then what else is there? Live doesn't have any more content then PSN and is PSN users want to pay £40 a year they get full retail games for free..

OT: live is not dying. Not at all. However it's relevance may waver next gen. 

Look, honestly, I don't want to get into your "my console is better than your console" grade-school, back-and-forth arguments.  Yes, actual numbers are only estimates that depend on some kind of mathematical model, but simple logic will tell us that there are more working PS3s in the wild than 360s.  I see no reason for you to be offended by that or for you to try to turn that into something else just so you can feel your console of choice is superior.  We already know that the rest of the world buys less games than North Americans.  We already know that the world's best selling franchise, CoD, sells much better on the 360 than the PS3.  We already know that Sony has no franchise released in 2012 that can compete with Halo 4 in terms of units sold.  This is all logic.  I really, honestly don't care if any of that offends you or makes you want to leap for joy.  It is what it is, deal with it either way.