I tend to agree with you a lot but XBOX actually has probably just as many exclusive Console titles with multi million sales.  Halo and gears being the two biggest they have.  There is others like fable, forza, L4D, Crackdown, Alan Wake, Perfect dark, mass effect, Dead or Alive 3, Viva Pinata, etc etc.  The reason people forget a lot of this is because xbox exclusives came out early in the gen where sony's has came out later. 

Sony has a bigger first party but Miscrosoft is more aggressive and buys exclusives wether for a short time or permanate 

I feel like betting that the sequel (GT 6) will sell less than 8.1 million =X

Sorry it didn't post my text...pretty much I said I think Sony needs two things at or near launch.

1. GT6
2. a high profile shooter


Oh, and to the person who said Forza is getting really popular. Not really. The sales of 4 have been well off of what they were at the same time for 3. I'm not confident a Forza game will ever see sales like 3 has again.

But will we see the same strategy next gen?  Because, to be honest, I don't think all the one year exclusives Microsoft bought at the beginning of this gen really ended up in their best interest, as Sony enforced the rule that they would only take a later release if it contained added content and was the definitive version.  I think it ended up being a long-term negative, which is why Microsoft abandoned that strategy and went with negotiating for timed exclusive DLC.  I'm pretty sure they're more pleased with that.

Even in Japan, where Microsoft spent a ton of money on exclusive games, are they likely to continue throwing cash down a well?  It basically did nothing for them there.  Will they give up on the Japanese market entirely?

I'm not so sure that we're going to see as many exclusive titles for the 720 from outside developers as we did for the 360.  I think most developers realize that the money is with going multi-platform.  Microsoft would have to spend a LOT to convince them otherwise and I'm not even sure they have enough money to accomplish that, not with a market that now includes THREE platforms.

Which brings up the question of Epic and Gears of War.  Imagine the size that IP could reach if expanded across the PS4 and Wii U.  Those are some serious dollar signs floating around for them to think about.

Sony has the best frist party games. So killzone will sell out the ps4

A single franchise? No.

They need more than one franchise to sell the PS4, and they have got it. I somehow doubt that they will want to release several great franchises at launch though. People don't want to experience a drought after release. (An issue that Nintendo counters by simply not releasing all finished games at once.)

All in all, I would say the PS4's success is mainly depending on Sony's ability to make new IP's and maintain their third party support. Their current big IP's alone are not sufficient.

It a niche? It sales as well as Halo. it certainly is a halo. Racing is way bigger then you realise, there are million dedicated to sim racing and pay for sites like iracing, and many other titles show this.

Yeah it's weird how people can buy a console just for ONE game... When I went to pick up my Zelda SS I saw dudes buying the Wii and Zelda... Why, why do that? I'm not buying a system until there's a few titles on the console I want.

I think combining all exclusive system sellers (big and small) Sony takes this fight. They got GT, UC, GoW, LBP and more while Microsoft has Halo, GeoW (but that could go multiplat next gen) and... Fable? Going by 1st party games Sony easily wins.