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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why PS4 won't be cutting edge, and neither will Xbox3 - or Why Nintendo might win next gen

 

Is my reasoning sound?

Hellz yeah! Spot on 265 33.42%
 
I never thought of it like that.... 69 8.70%
 
So it's the mental institution next for you? 101 12.74%
 
So very, very wrong 266 33.54%
 
I'm a pussy with no opinion 88 11.10%
 
Total:789
DanneSandin on 21 September 2012
Yridian said:
I'd like to think neither Sony nor MS would dump the amount of power (And money) into their system they did this gen, especially Sony which isn't exactly healthy across its entire portfolio of products. I'd also like to think 3rd party support will be strong for WiiU, especially after the other systems launch. Yes, I'd to think all that ... but history. It has a tendency to repeat itself.

What tricks do MS and Sony have? Raw power. Sony can't get away with launching a new system second or third in line and have it be seen as weak. Look at PSP, and its sales. Did Sony learn its lesson with Vita? Nope, they produced an expensive item with top of the line graphical ability. They will do the same with PS4 I'm afraid. Nintendo may be the only company who can get away with a weaker system. Microsoft did learn some lessons from XBox to 360, cutting some corners, cutting costs. They also have a hit on their hands, with their own motion sensor which will no doubt be bundled in every new system. So maybe they can do it again, and we may see a console not very much stronger than the Wii?

As for Nintendo, Iwata thinks the gap between Nintendo's console and the other two will be less than it was with the Wii and the current consoles. I think he's right, but a gap there will still be. And if it's significant enough to make it impossible to port games down to WiiU, we will see yet another 3rd party drought on a Nintendo system. WiiU's saving grace, would be the controller. Which is rather 'standard' in terms of dual analog and traditional buttons. Companies won't have to fight a two front war like they did with the Wii, being graphically weaker and having a very different controller.

The whole OP tries to explain why the bolded part won't happen. Sony can't make THAT jump next gen. It's partially due to the company's whole financially situation, and partially due to the exhange rate. I don't think any console will launch above $399 next gen, and if PS4 costs 40k yen that'll be roughly $460 - and no one's gonna buy that. Therefore, PS4 will cost $399 and Sony will take a $60 hit on every console. I don't belive they CAN take $100 hit on every sold console. And that's why it won't be a jump above WiiU like PS3 was over GC/Xbox.

And regarding your comment about Vita; they didn't learn shit - as you say. And the system isn't selling, at-all. THAT should teach them that graphics isn't the end all be all.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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Cthulhu on 21 September 2012
Wh1pL4shL1ve_007 said:
Cthulhu said:
There is no need for Sony to release a new console if ps3 can compete with a "next" gen console

I never expected that when I paid 650euro for a 2007 60gb ps3


Honestly... if it cant run skyrim properly, then you know you have an aging console. No trolling just my oppinion. 

So if PS3 was a little more powerfull it wouldnt be an aging console by now?

 

btw: it runs skyrim properly



DanneSandin on 21 September 2012
RenderMonk said:
The graphics of the PS4 and XboxNext won't be wildly better than the wiiU. What we will see is, higher frame rates, better anti-aliasing, smoother edges, less distortion on texture maps, less screen tearing, and better quality lighting and shadows. But to the average gamer, that is not going to translate to "Wow, that's WAY BETTER than anything I've seen before."

But if you think for a second, that Sony and Microsoft are going to come out for another generation of consoles, and not throw everything they have at it...you'd be sadly mistaken. Both have seen what Nintendo was able to accomplish with non-traditional controls. The tested the water with the Kinect, and the Move. Whatever they have up their sleeve, will be better versions of what they've tried already.

You are right about one thing though. Now that Nintendo has 3rd party support, all platforms will have all games on them, EXCEPT for 1st party titles. While it is true that this is where Nintendo shines, Sony has done an excellent job of creating a stellar 1st party lineup of their own. I'd say it's right up there with Nintendo now. Seeing as Nintendo isn't creating very many new IP, they are just re imagining the existing IP they have had for decades. While Sony on the other hand, are still bringing out new IP such as Beyond and Last of Us, to name two of the most recent.

I do think Sony will throw everything they've got at PS4 - but that's not a lot they've got to throw with. They got more debts than money in the bank. Not good. No one's gonna launch a new system for $499 next year. No one would buy that. And Sony won't be taking a $100 on every sold system next gen - 'cause they can't afford it.

If something taught us this gen, is that core gamers don't like motion control, and therefore Kinect 2.0 won't get that much support outside of MS itself. It's not gonna get 3rd party AAA games. It's gonna get the same treatment as Wii got; lots of half assed 3rd party shovelware.

But I think you're absolutely spot on regarding Sony's 1st party games. They've done much to expand the library of 1st party IP's which surely will serve them good in the long run. They're not selling as much as Nintendo's IP's, but in this case Sony really is an example for Nintendo to follow!!



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 21 September 2012
arminuk said:
Nintendo fans listen and take wii u wii u wii u wii u = sucks take it stop saying Nintendo wii u is the best f******** next generation console please stop making me laughing none stop

Why even reply if you're not contributing to the discussion?! I didn't say WiiU will be the bezt console everrr, I laid out facts as to why I think the PS4 won't be MUCH more powerful than WiiU. Read the OP before replying.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 21 September 2012
Rafux said:
Hahahaha funniest thread in a long time. Please OP change your name to Nostradamus.

Not quite sure how to respond to this? Ó_õ



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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DanneSandin on 21 September 2012
RedInker said:
The nextbox will be a powerful system no doubt. I agree that the PS4 wont be a significant leap. I think Microsoft might win the next gen. They have got the money that Sony can only dream of at the moment.

I agree; MS has the chance to take it all. Don't think it'll be a "PS2 win", so it's just a matter of who's gonna make a profit for Nintendo and Sony. But if MS is too focused on Kinect 2.0 it's either Sony or Nintendo for the nr1 spot.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 21 September 2012
rogermoore said:
People, I´ve just read some pages and I´m getting the conclusion that many people here are not considering a key fact on next gen consoles success: consumer economy.
Taking the example of the Vita, and past examples like Dreamcast and 3DO, it´s clear that it´s not just power that matters. Vita may be a powerhouse but it still doesn´t have what it takes to convince new consumers to spent heavy on it. Everyone is talking about power matters, power matters, graphics, graphics, graphics and to tell you the truth, it´s kind of boring talking about the same thing over and over again.
If Sony and Microsoft can´t sustain a new high-tech-high-performance-high-price console, we won´t see it soon and they will have to come with something not so powerful but instead with something that´s acessible and with an affordable price for consumers. Or they will have to take the most advantage possible from their actual consoles in therms of consumer approaching before taking a step on new grounds that are not acessible to customers today.
How risk would be for them to come with a $ 600 console right now? Would people buy it or only their fans? How long would Sony sustain another product with a loss, like they´re sustaing Vita today? Are consoles sales continue to fall in 2013, 2014 ? Nintendo´s bet is, at least, a cheap one, one that is acessible to people and at the same time has some innovations, it may be a hit or not, but it seems like a safe bet for the next three or four years, as much as PS3 and Xbox still have good sales potential worldwide.
Those are not easy questions to answer, but after the case of Vita, production costs and consumer costs will be very, very important not for Sony and MS but for the future of the console market itself.

This is a very good post! So good I have to reply so that people will have to read it twice, or read this reply in case they missed it the first time around.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

askel50 on 21 September 2012

People keep missing the main point.

PS3, WiiU and XBOX 360 have almost the same power. There are some differences, the Wii may be slightly better (it has more RAM) but nothing that a normal consumer would notice or that good software can't overcome. If you don't see this then you are blind.

So where is the purpose (for sony and ms) in releasing a new console if the one you have now on the market CAN COMPETE and has:

- A better game library
- Lower production cost (recurrent costs)
- Zero development cost (one time costs, very high)

You make a restyle, cut the price, do a smartglass-like thing with comparative advertising and blow nitendo out of the market.

But this won't work because the industry need a progress. Developers demand it, chip makers demand it and gamers demand it. And you know? It won't even cost that much. Like someone pointed out, wasn't the gpu that dragged up the PS3 price.



HappySqurriel on 21 September 2012
logic56 said:
HappySqurriel said:
brendude13 said:

The Vita does not have top of the line hardware. I would say SONY did learn their lesson, before the 3DS dropped its price the $249 price point of the Vita was praised.


The PS-Vita's price was praised by the same people who thought $600 was reasonable for a PS3 and $250 was too much for a Wii ...

Essentially, people who look at these in terms of value as hardware rather than value as a system.

so you have no idea what your talking about, right, now that we got that out the way....

the 250 price was praised becasue before that was announced, given the hardware it was assumed the Vita was going to be at minim 350-400 dollars for the  non 3G model 400 to 500 for the 3G model

it wasn't just the most power handheld gaming console out it was the most powerful handheld out period, beating cell phones and tables alike, so when Sony announced it was only going to be 250 and seeing the 3ds also at 250 people were overly estatic NO ONE thought the 600 dollar price was reasonable, they brought it anyway becasue the ps3 was a new console.


Bold: Isn't that exactly what I was saying?

As for "nobody" thought the $600 price tag was reasonable, enough people were defending it that Penny-Arcade was making fun of them:

 

I remember reading countless posts of PS3 fans defending the price, and I even remember watching the e3 wrap up videos and saw many of the "journalists" claim that $250 was too much to pay for outdated hardware (Wii) when they could buy bleeding edge hardware and a blu-ray player for $500/$600.



Degausser on 21 September 2012
askel50 said:

People keep missing the main point.

PS3, WiiU and XBOX 360 have almost the same power. There are some differences, the Wii may be slightly better (it has more RAM) but nothing that a normal consumer would notice or that good software can't overcome. If you don't see this then you are blind.

So where is the purpose (for sony and ms) in releasing a new console if the one you have now on the market CAN COMPETE and has:

- A better game library
- Lower production cost (recurrent costs)
- Zero development cost (one time costs, very high)

You make a restyle, cut the price, do a smartglass-like thing with comparative advertising and blow nitendo out of the market.

But this won't work because the industry need a progress. Developers demand it, chip makers demand it and gamers demand it. And you know? It won't even cost that much. Like someone pointed out, wasn't the gpu that dragged up the PS3 price.


 Indeed, having looked at a few articles speculating and interviewing developers I don't think people quite realise the gap that will once again open up between Nintendo's console and Sony / Microsoft powerwise. Unreal Engine 4 won't run on the Wii U but will most likely be the mainstay for third party PS4 / Xbox 3 games. Nintendo have made a console that will effectively play like a ps3 / 360 in the graphics department, while Sony and Microsoft will be taking things to the next level (Direct X 11, Unreal 4 etc). It's the nature of the video game industry since it existed, new consoles bring more power in big jumps. Unfortunately I think we'll have to wait for their announcement before some people see that 

 ALso, I don't think even after PS4 / 720 launches that Wii U will dry up on third party support for the short term. While I'm sure the big publishers (Acti, EA, Ubi) will all have some big, powerhouse exclusive on the PS4 / 720 pushing whatever hardware they have to the new limit, most companies can't afford to do that and stuff like COD and Assassins Creed are just too big not to make on the current tech (WiiU, PS3 and 360) and simply release 'upscaled' type versions on the PS4 and 720. 

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-08-30-how-powerful-is-the-wii-u-really thats worth a read imo, it basically says what we've been saying albeit no ones still totally sure how powerful the Wii U is and how much horsepower Sony / Microsoft have planned.