CrazzyMan I can not thank you enough for creating this thread, and actually sticking to it. I have casualy browsed this thread every week, but tonight I took a deeper look at it, and anyone that thinks the PS3 will sell less this year than the PS2 did in 2001 is blind. There is way to many massive events happening for the PS3 this year to even consider it falling short of the PS2's 01 performance.

April-May-June

In this time period Sony is going to Kill the sales of PS2 during 01. They will start off selling like crazy in Others due to the release of GT5P bundle, and the US should already start seeing a small pick up for the people getting on board for GT5P, and GTA4. Half way through April GT5P is going to release along sid the DualShock3 in the US, which will put the GT medium core crowed into a buying frinzy. Also at that point there will be a PSN update, rumor has it it will launch on the 15th and include at least a Video Download service.

note: Many have shown disgust at my belief that the PSN getting a Video store will help the PS3 a lot since it has done little for the 360. However, if you ask people even in the semi hardcore community about Video Market Place they have no clue what you are talking about. I think that Sony will not let this happen with the PSN video service. Sony will push it hard and make sure the consumer is well aware that PS3 gives them the option to take in Blu-ray, while having the flexability to download HD content if you so desire.

Now after all of that we will only be 2 weeks away from GTA4, which will deffinatly continue the momentum in the US and EU. Going into May they have a title that many believe has fallin off the table in the form of Haze. Now that could very well be the case, but with very little esle to offer in May I would not be suprised to see a decnet push behind the title and some acceptable sales. On the hardcore side they have Gamers day which will be going on around this time. In Japan they will have Golden week at the beging of May, which although yes the PS2 benefited from it, I see much bigger gains for the PS3 during this time. Roilling into June Sony has what could be the biggest game of the year on the platform. I think it can not be taken lightly the effect a worldwide launch of MGS4 will have. It would not be beyond belief to see 150k japan, 200k US, and 250k Others the launch week, and I think that game is going to have very nice legs.

So over the next 4 months I think PS3 will easly sell 1.5 times what PS2 did in the same stretch in 01. There are still a lot of factors that could see an even greater performance. If they cut the price before GTA4 the I could see them selling 2 times what PS2 did in 01. There is also Blu-ray 2.0 which will being pushed hard buy all of the retailers, movie studios, and electronic giants. If you don't think people will be informed about PS3's ability to do this plus PSN you are kidding yourself. Many don't want to believe it, but If you take a real look at the martket, Sony is in the drivers seat right now. They have the power to make things happen, with them having the ability to pull in profits at the moment from PS2 and PSP sales, they can drop the Price of the PS3 whenever they feel like it. A 299 PS3 at this point in the game could completly change the landscape of this generation. We all know that profits come from games and it is ok to loose on consoles, so with GT5P, GTA4, and MGS4 all coming out in the first Quater they should still be able to pull a profit even after a PS3 price cut of 100 dollars;

ps3 is not selling 16 million this year...not even most sony fanboys will predict that much

also, u are the one who is blind (biased?) saying wii will only hit 32mil by 12/31...what sort of math/assumptions did u use to get to that conclusion?

 I understand the point of this thread.  I was just commenting on what you said about PS3's first year totals being inflated compared to PS2's first year.

 If you're going to count YEARLY sales, you probably shouldn't lump 2006 into 2007 sales.  If you're doing that you might as well lump 2000 sales into 2001 on the basis that Japan was supply contrained the whole year and America and Others were only available for afew weeks.

The delayed launch really doesn't change much for TOTAL sales.  By that I mean the amount sold in the 8 months after the Europe launch is quite close to the amount that would've been sold had it been available all 12 months.  This is why it's okay to compare X360(first year)/Wii sales with PS3 sales.  It wouldn't be fair to compare TOTAL X360 sales with TOTAL PS3 sales though because the X360 has an extra year.

My point is you're skewing numbers in favor of the PS3.  But the thread is still interesting, as long as the facts aren't misrepresented.

But we're not talking about 100 million yet. We're talking about 6-9 million, so it is a big deal.

The BIG problem is your MAIN YEAR of FIRST year life of PS2 is nowhere near the size of the MAIN YEAR of FIRST year life of PS3.

2001 vs 2008 is interesting, but it's in no way a valid comparison of second years. Unfortunately due to the staggered launches it's impossible to fairly use calendar years.

We are talking about TOTAL sales and about YEARLY sales. NOT sales per region.
GOT IT?

I understand you want to compare total sales, but you can't just ignore the staggered launch.

10 months in one region plus 1 month in two regions is VASTLY different from 13 months in two regions plus 9 months in one region. There's just no way you can ignore that. I'm not saying you should use 1 month in two regions as PS3s first year either btw.

Let me make it clear. The only valid way to compare the two consoles is by region. 2001 vs 2008 is an interesting comparison, that I like to see being made, BUT it is NOT a comparison of the second year for each console since it isn't really the second year for either console. Calendar years simply don't work out.

Well, i also CAN`T just ignore 599$ PRICE of PS3, Coming after 1 year, when main competitor was available, Launchs at different time, Having supply problems till february.
IN FACT we cant compare NOTHING, because ALWAYS there will be different situation, different market.
For FAIR comparison, you have launch 2 systems at SAME day in all regions and then compare.
What was your POINT, again?

I think 16m is a "little" high - I figure closer to 12m-13m. You can't just disregard all the competition these days - the PS2 had Xmas '01 all to itself, and this is where the sales really skyrocketed.

In the 2 months over Nov/Dec '01, the PS2 went from an install base of 15.2m ---> 22.2.

7m units sold in around 8 weeks. 

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=37199&end=37262&weekly=1 

The PS3 this year will do closer to 3.5-4.5m in the same time period - leaving it around 3-4m short of the PS2 sales from '01, and calender year sales of around 12m-13m. 

...

Considering they did almost 9-10m last calender year (including a Europe launch), sales of 12-13m in year 2 are pretty good.

lol sega lost every single time..   nes out sold sms

snes out sold genesis/cd/32x

n64 also out sold saturn and belive it or not it even out sold dreamcast lol ,   thats as bad as anything sold in a while

gc ended up 3rd thank you sega!     oh and nintendo cant lose,,  they won already gb /ds keeps em alive,, and they make profit now off every wii sold and if thats not enough they are holding a big lead

also look at ps1 and ps2s launch games

ps1 had a very good launch line up

crash 1 spyro 1  i dont even know ps1s launch so but the time i got it it had games like nfs 3 hot puruit nfs 2 the original nfs crash 1-3   spyro this is a list of good aaas ps1 had driver 1 and 2gta

ps2 had

timesplitters-i only knew about the first because i played number 2 so i got the first and it was awsome it was to me last gens goldeneye sequals,

gta 3

new madden game

its launch was a killer just put it that way as was soon after this may also be because gamecube and xbox were a yr late to the party

but any how

gamecube had 12 games at launch and i think only 2 were worth a buy both nintendos,  luigis mansion and wave race blue storm

and as far as price ranges  gamecube killed em all

and xbox was the worst of the 3 launches with no good games you can argue with me about halo all you want,, timesplitters is far more supierer  than halo ,  as far as im concerned it had a map maker 50 characters 18 maps in multi plays 13 single player levels ,   interisting game modes, etc

i wont include dreamcast in this comparision as it wasnt even ready it was a rushed project sega knew it ,,  

gamecube would have had last gen won if nintendo were to go through with the online portion ,, its worked wonders for wii ,  also  the 3rd party could have helped , but any how

ps2 won last gen and ps1 won the gen before with 64 being the 2nd place good ending to an actually good system with almost half of its library aaas ,,  

nintendo deserved where its at now, they tried 2 times to finally 2 hard working times to finally regain the supremacy,

and the looks of it has paid off in the end

even if not,  i say they brought more to the table every system put out

so if they win this gen good if not still good effort, 

and as far as microsoft is concerned they better fix this rrod problem because right now i t looks as though ms has slowed down ,, 

i think this is how it will go wii will remain top ps3 2nd, 360 third if somthing spactacular doesnt happen this year for 360