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I think 16m is a "little" high - I figure closer to 12m-13m. You can't just disregard all the competition these days - the PS2 had Xmas '01 all to itself, and this is where the sales really skyrocketed.

In the 2 months over Nov/Dec '01, the PS2 went from an install base of 15.2m ---> 22.2.

7m units sold in around 8 weeks. 

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=37199&end=37262&weekly=1 

The PS3 this year will do closer to 3.5-4.5m in the same time period - leaving it around 3-4m short of the PS2 sales from '01, and calender year sales of around 12m-13m. 

...

Considering they did almost 9-10m last calender year (including a Europe launch), sales of 12-13m in year 2 are pretty good.



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