CrazzyMan said: @crumas2, 1) PS3 launched at 600$(less then 10% had 500$ price), while PS2 had 300$ price. BUT, PS2 had a PRICECUT to 199$ in May 2002, or only 3rd year since launch. WHOLE 2001 PS2 had price 300$. NOW, i really BELIEVE, PS3 will get 300$ price this year. So, on 2nd year, PS3 will have 300$ price(or half of launch price) = just like 150$ would be a price of PS2 in 2001, BUT ps2 had 300$. THIS a BIG advantage for PS3. 2) Bullshit. Loss few, gaining MANY. 3) 120Gb still will be having BC, not to mention, There will be software BC in 40GB model by the end 2008 or 2009. 4) which have WEAK line compared to PS3 in 2008. PS3 outselling x360 WW, which has 2 games pack-in and cost 50$ less. EXPLAIN. @Oyvoyvoyv, I know it has good 3rd party, but the others have similary good games. WRONG, PS3 has BEST 3rd party exclusive games in 2008. http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=PS3&reg3=All&weeks=156 HERE are numbers form 1st year of each system LIFE. System LIFE begins since system is availble FIRST time on the market, not since release in other regions. It`s system problem, if it didn`t have simultaneous launches. You can compare PS3 sales to x360 and wii, but PS3 had 4 month later launch in Europe. Then how market share is divided by TOTAL numbers on FRONT PAGE, when ps3 has 4 month disadvantage in Europe?

 

1. I think you may have something regarding Sony dropping the price so rapidly if they can stop removing features such as BC, etc., on the low end.  The biggest problem for Sony is the fact that they've lost part of their momentum by their initial price being so high.  I have to discount your $300 price argument because it hasn't happened yet.  If it does happen, then I will agree that Sony will have to a large degree overcome issue # 1.

2. I haven't seen a reverse in the multi-platform trend for the 360 and PS3.  Many studios have complained that both platforms cost 5-10 times as much to produce a AAA title for, compared to the PS2 and Xbox.  Studios really need to get some of that money back, so I'm fairly certain that the trend to spread the cost across both (or all three) platforms will continue.  You can argue with the Studios all you want, but I think at some point in the future all we'll see on 360 and PS3 that will be exclusive will be first-party titles.

3. It's good that Sony seems to be retaining BC on the high-end, but it's still a liability on the low-end.  And as in item #1, I can't give you credit for the software BC until it becomes a reality (which I do believe may come to pass) and we see how good it is.  When the PS3 first came out, I actually sold two of the guys at work on it because I could prove that it had hardware BC, i.e. - a majority of the games would play.  Having software BC is a lot less compelling, particularly considering that usually only a small percentage of games will play, there will be some # of glitches in some of those games, and the really heavy-duty games (such as Shadow of the Colossus) which programmed straight to the hardware won't be supported.

4. Again, you can't claim that the PS3 will have a stronger lineup in 2008 until we know which titles are actually released on the 360 and Wii.  MS is keeping its cards close to its chest at this point in time, so it's really difficult to know exactly what the 2008 360 lineup will look like.  You also can't say that a system with a relatively small software library will have an *overall* stronger lineup than a competitor that already has a strong library.  Many people who purchase 360s and Wiis in 2008 will do so because they will finally find one (in the Wiis case), the price will drop (which the 360 and Wii are overdue for), or they finally have the money (tax return in the US, saved enough over time, etc.).   You just can't assume that most of the 360/PS3/Wii purchases in 2008 will be for new games that come out in 2008.  I believe the PS3 will see a bit of a hardware-sales spike from FF and possibly GT5, but DMC4 is now multi-platform, so any "exclusivity" advantage is lost.  And saying that the PS3 is "beating" the 360 in sales WW is a little bit of a stretch when you're talking about the difference in sales last week being < 10%.

 

I do give Sony credit in 3 areas:

1. They are actually getting the cost down.

2. They've built a really reliable console. 

3. The console has sold really well last year despite being expensive. 

 

The cost cutting has definitely cost them billions of dollars, but hats off to them for realizing it was needed.  Unfortunately, I don't think they will be able to continue slashing the prices that aggressively unless they intend to wipe out all the profits they made in their game division over the past 12 years (they've already lost about half of it).

As far as selling pretty much on par with the 360 WW at this time, that's a good thing.  But the 360 has been out for longer, so it's expected that its sales will eventually lower, particularly in a field with three competitors.  If MS drops the price of the 360 significantly (and they can probably afford to do it considering how cash rich they are), then we may see a swing back for the 360.  It's difficult to say, considering none of us can see the future.

 

CrazzyMan said: @crumas2, 1) PS3 launched at 600$(less then 10% had 500$ price), while PS2 had 300$ price. BUT, PS2 had a PRICECUT to 199$ in May 2002, or only 3rd year since launch. WHOLE 2001 PS2 had price 300$. NOW, i really BELIEVE, PS3 will get 300$ price this year. So, on 2nd year, PS3 will have 300$ price(or half of launch price) = just like 150$ would be a price of PS2 in 2001, BUT ps2 had 300$. THIS a BIG advantage for PS3. @Oyvoyvoyv, I know it has good 3rd party, but the others have similary good games. WRONG, PS3 has BEST 3rd party exclusive games in 2008.

Just because $300 is half of $600, doesn't mean it's like $150 to $300. Yes, both are half of the original price, but $150 is WAY more consumer friendly than $300. PS3 still has to get to that point. And I have a feeling that Sony may not drop the price for at least 6 months still, because if they keep dropping the price every 3 or 4 months, people will just wait until the "next" pricecut or the next "upgraded" SKU to come out before getting the system.

The part in bold is opinion.

Also, the GameCube had a better start to the 2003 year compared to 2002 in Japan, yet ultimately sold less than the first year. Links are below.

Jan Weekly Sales of GC in Japan 2002
Jan Weekly Sales of GC in Japan 2003

Total Sales of GC in Japan 2002
Total Sales of GC in Japan 2003

It just shows that a good start does not ultimately mean a good finish.

Oyvoyvoyv, you make very good points. In my analysis I'm attempting to eliminate any bias and unfair comparisons, by comparing each console three different ways:

1. By aligning launches in each region and considering one "year" to be the total sales of each region after 52 weeks,
2. By using calendar years, such that the "first" year for the PS2 would be 2000, and
3. By using one full year after a consoles earliest launch in any region, such that the "first" year for the PS2 would be from March 4, 2000 (launch in Japan) to March 4, 2001.

Then by comparing and contrasting each positive and negative feature for each, I should be able to come up with some pretty interesting stuff. The one I think is the most fair is the first one, many due to it eliminates differences in launches, and since 52 weeks is always going to include one Christmas season, each console in each region will get a holiday boost, thus taking the differences in Christmas times relative to launches out of the equation. If you download my comparison Excel file, and select the "6th Generation Yearly Sales" sheet at the bottom, you can see the market percetage of each consoles sales during a given year. Do note that this way uses the aligning from launch method, but I'm working on an update that would use the other methods to make sort of an "average." None-the-less, I still think it's a good way to look at market changes and the like.

Also, yes, I don't get a lot of posts from this, and since I have a lot to say, I could probably get more, but oh well. I just want to get up to 1 post per day average, and since I'm closing in on 1 year as a member, I just need about 200 more in the next month. 

@brute,

Well, it`s the way how systems were launched. this time Sony decided not leave USA market(where x360 good strong support) and launched PS3 also in USA, though it could easy launch PS3 in USA by march 2007. Just like they did with PS2.

@Oyvoyvoyv, here is the point:
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=Japan&cons3=PS3&reg3=Japan&weeks=400
ps2 did 22 mln. in Japan.
psOne did 18.5 mln. in Japan.
I believe PS3 will ALSO do close to 20 mln. in Japan.
As for now, there is NOTHING against that graphic, which we have now in Japan. Only after more sales data we will see, how close/far ps3 will be.

@CrashMan, so what games will be ported from x360 to ps3 in 2008? Yeah, it`s an opinion. You will be able to deny it only in 2009, so sit now and relax. =)))

@crumas2,
1) ok, it`s only a January has ended.

2) burnout 5, but it`s only a January. PS3 still have 3rd party exclusives, i don`t even know, is there anyt 3rd party exclusive on x360. Wii has some, but most 3rd party Wii games don`t sell.

3) time will show, not it`s too early to say how thing will go on.

4) ps3 will have MOST mln. sellers BRAND games in 2008.

Howerver, x360 for NOW still have BIGGER game library. BUT not for LONG.
PS2 sales were only increasing on it`s 2nd-3rd year.

@Stever89,
IF 250$ was friendly enough to sell 20 mln. Wii, why just 50$ more wont be friendly for a mediacenter? =)) I corrected myself. =]Playstation BRAND for last 10 years is STRONGER then n64, GC, Wii(every time new console name).

Crazy, "zoom" in on the graph. http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=Japan&cons3=PS3&reg3=Japan&weeks=60

It is tracking under the Ps1. Remember, the Ps1 had a bad start, because everyone though Nintendo were going to create the best console. Therefore, it had fairly week sales in the beginning.

Oyvoyvoyv said: Does this remind anyone else of Narnia? The boy's uncle didn't want to hear the Lion speak, so there was nothing the Lion could do. If Crazzy is the uncle, I'm very glad I'm not the boy ::):):)

Off topic:

 

There's a new Narnia movie coming out this may, I saw the trailor for it on the playstation network.

@Oyvoyvoyv,
PS3 is tracking under the Ps1. Remember, the Ps3 had a bad start, because everyone though Nintendo created the best inovative and cheap console.
PS3 had BIGGEST price on the launch.
Media was against PS3 for almost 1 year.
M$ bought many games as timed(and not) exclusives for x360.

You DON`T expect PS3 to go psone/ps2 steps in Japan after pricecuts this year, after BIG games releases? WHY? =)

^well for it to follow like ps1/2 in japan it needs dragon quest

CrazzyMan said: @Stever89, IF 250$ was friendly enough to sell 20 mln. Wii, why just 50$ more wont be friendly for a mediacenter? =)) The part in bold is opinion. I corrected myself. =] Also, the GameCube had a better start to the 2003 year compared to 2002 in Japan, yet ultimately sold less than the first year. Links are below. Playstation BRAND for last 10 years is STRONGER then n64, GC, Wii(every time new console name).

Nowhere did I say that $250 is or is not more friendly than $300, though it slightly is, obviously, since $50 is the price of a game. I was merely pointing out that half of $600 is definitely not as consumer friendly as half of $300 is.

And as Oyvoyvoyv said, the PS1 didn't do as well at the beginning because everyone thought that Nintendo would do better. In other words, BRANDNAME was STRONGER at that time. Yes the PLAYSTATION brand has a strong brandname now, but back then Nintendo had a strong brandname and that didn't seem to do much for them. They did sell 30 million N64s, so I guess you can be assured that the PS3 will sell similar to that, since they're situations are comparable.

I have not seen the trailor for the Narnia movie, but since I enjoyed the first one I'll have to look that up.

@Stever89, Sony sold over 26 mln. PS2 at 300$. 26 mln. is a good number, so it`s enough friendly for consumer.

PS3 is still having STRONG 3rd party support + Many BIG games to come. =)
MGS4, FFXIII, RE5, GT5 -> these are games like MGS, FFVII, RE, GT which N64 didn`t have. While PS3, like psOne has. =)
THAT`s WHY PS3 has a good chances to reach 20 mln. in Japan. =)

There are ONE console with inovative controls and ONE console with HD visuals. Both can coexist in Japan. Both have chances to reach 20 mln.

CrazzyMan said: @Stever89, Sony sold over 26 mln. PS2 at 300$. 26 mln. is a good number, so it`s enough friendly for consumer. PS3 is still having STRONG 3rd party support + Many BIG games to come. =) MGS4, FFXIII, RE5, GT5 -> these are games like MGS, FFVII, RE, GT which N64 didn`t have. While PS3, like psOne has. =) THAT`s WHY PS3 has a good chances to reach 20 mln. in Japan. =) There are ONE console with inovative controls and ONE console with HD visuals. Both can coexist in Japan. Both have chances to reach 20 mln.

Again, I never said that $300 wasn't consumer friendly. Obviously $250 is slightly more consumer friendly, but not a lot.

Also that last sentence is a bit of a stretch. The Japanese market has been shrinking, especially in the console market, so having it practically double in one generation would be quite amazing. Also, the 360 is a HD console. And, of the "HD visual" consoles in Japan, the 360 makes up about 23% of that market in Japan. For those not wishing to do the math,

• 360 in Japan: 0.57 million
• PS3 in Japan: 1.86 million
• Total: 2.43 million
• 360 Total / Total = .57 / 2.43 = .23 * 100 = 23%

That's pretty strong compitition for a console that is normally describe as "dead" in Japan. Once you include the Wii though, that's when the percentage of the 360 in Japan drops hard. But since there's room for a console with innovative controls and one with HD visuals, I didn't include the Wii in the percentage. Unfortunately, for the PS3, it has to compete with another console for it's half of the market, whereas the Wii does not.