This one should be interesting on the Republican side. Current polling shows it as a tie between McCain and Huckabee. It is nearly impossible to predict because it all depends on turnout. Each of the three groups that make up the Republican party (social conservatives, fiscal conservatives and national security hawks) seem to have a candidate they prefer... The majority of South Carolina voters in the GOP primary would likely fall into all three, but I would give a slight edge to Huckabee here. Fundamentalists are not fickle voters, and he certainly seems to speak to them. McCain is a recent religious convert and Romney is a Mormon, which some fundamentalists find heretical. This is going to be a close race, but Huckabee if Huckabee wins here.. he will likely win in Florida and b3yond.

The Republican primary is tomorrow 01/19. 

At the end of the day, there are only minute differences in the platforms of the three main Democratic candidates. Obama will win in a rout here because of his charisma and his appeal to Black voters. This is not stereotyping.. it is easy to see why African Americans would be excited, especially in a state with such a racist history as SC, by the first (half)Black person to have a real chance at becoming president. John Edwards won SC in 2004 but he won't get it this time.. I expect Hillary Clinton to be third.

The Democratic primary is 01/26.

My monwy ia on the Huckster.

Mostly because i believe the country doesn't want me to have nice things.

I disagree that if Huckabee wins here he will win Florida and beyond however.

It's possible, but not a given as Romney has support in other states and is leading in electoral votes. You can tell by the mailers directed against him despite not being a likely winner. (which are probably from Huckabee's camp since Mccain is facing his own dirty campaign attacks)

@PDF

I agree, except about Giuliani. Everyone (in both races) should have won a primary by now in order to be competive. Huckabee, Romney and McCain have gotten all the press while Giuliani has been ignored and placed extremely poorly in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan (under 5% in all) Some might say to wait until Florida and Feb 5th, but I think Giuliani has already blown it.

Edwards is in the same position.. 

I could've sworn this was going to be about Miss South Carolina...

 LOL Thanks for remind me about that.. I'm going to watch the video again now.

Fairly significant snowstorm in South Carolina tommorow.  Don't expect huge turn out, at least some southerners can't drive in the snow.  One thing I've noticed about religious people is they don't take risks very often - so I'm expecting fairly low evangelical turnout - making it a dog fight for the top three positions.  Paul's supporters are passionate, and snow be damned, they'll lead him to beat Guiliani again.  Thompson will be between Paul, and the top three.  

For those of you who have been to the interior west, their are some very educated folks out there with a strong libertarian streak and I wouldn't be surprised if Paul does better in Nevada than South Carolina, especially in college towns and rural areas.  Mormons are understood much better in the regions near Utah as well, and that bodes well for Romney in Northern and Eastern Nevada.  McCain is in for a rough day overall, in my opinion, and I actually think Guiliani will do well in suburban Vegas, but he'll suck everywhere else in Nevada.  For Nevada I'd go Obama-Clinton-Edwards (40-38-22), and Romney -Mcain-Guilliani-Paul-Huckabee-Thompson (27-23-20-12-10-8).    

I'm gonna say for SC...

Dems:

White vote is split three ways between Edwards, Clinton, and Obama.  Black Vote is 65-25-10 for Obama, Clinton, Edwards.  If we assume Blacks and Whites show up equally for the Dem primary, I'd go with (.65)(.5) + (.3)(.5) for Obama ~ 47% of the vote, Clinton with (.25)(.5) + (.5)(.4) ~ 37.5% of the vote.  Edwards will take the remaining 18% or so.

Republicans:

Prediction - Huckabee (25%), Mccain (22%), Romney (21%), Thompson (15%), Paul (9%), Guiliani (5%), Other (3%)

 Amazing analysis. Apparently the source knows a lot more than just vidoe game statistics.

I personally live in South Carolina, and if I COULD vote, I'd vote for Ron Paul. Maybe in 3 years. 

@pdf

I don't really see any way Giuliani could pull ahead. He hasn't really been campaigning in the early primary states but surely he would have done better in them than he did? He got 4% of the vote in Iowa, 9% in in New Hampshire and 3% in Michigan. That's pretty terrible for someone who was the front-runner as recently as December. His campaign is also nearly broke.

There don't seem to be many likely voters in the Republican primary who agree with him on social issues and his "hero" image has been greatly superceded by McCain's. 

I would expect him to drop out of the primary, citing "health problems" soon after losing Florida.

 I don't think it was a strategy, so much as a reality.  He was screwed.

Honestly the more i look at it.  The more we should have rotating primaries or something with more super primaries.

Start with the states with the least amount of delegates and  do them like... 5 at a time.  From diverse positions.

Or just group the states in 10 groups of 5, (or 5 of 10) for the demographic differences and then have the order chosen randomly for said super primaries.  It sucks that some states don't really get a say in the primary process and as such there positions don't get adequetly discussed. 

What happened to Michigan on the democrats side this year sucks.

How accurate are entrance polls?  I just saw one for the Nevada Caucus where Ron Paul had 22% of the vote of those polled.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NVREP

I don't expect it to hold up, but he is at 11% in the early results.  Its going to be interesting.