Fairly significant snowstorm in South Carolina tommorow. Don't expect huge turn out, at least some southerners can't drive in the snow. One thing I've noticed about religious people is they don't take risks very often - so I'm expecting fairly low evangelical turnout - making it a dog fight for the top three positions. Paul's supporters are passionate, and snow be damned, they'll lead him to beat Guiliani again. Thompson will be between Paul, and the top three.
For those of you who have been to the interior west, their are some very educated folks out there with a strong libertarian streak and I wouldn't be surprised if Paul does better in Nevada than South Carolina, especially in college towns and rural areas. Mormons are understood much better in the regions near Utah as well, and that bodes well for Romney in Northern and Eastern Nevada. McCain is in for a rough day overall, in my opinion, and I actually think Guiliani will do well in suburban Vegas, but he'll suck everywhere else in Nevada. For Nevada I'd go Obama-Clinton-Edwards (40-38-22), and Romney -Mcain-Guilliani-Paul-Huckabee-Thompson (27-23-20-12-10-8).
I'm gonna say for SC...
Dems:
White vote is split three ways between Edwards, Clinton, and Obama. Black Vote is 65-25-10 for Obama, Clinton, Edwards. If we assume Blacks and Whites show up equally for the Dem primary, I'd go with (.65)(.5) + (.3)(.5) for Obama ~ 47% of the vote, Clinton with (.25)(.5) + (.5)(.4) ~ 37.5% of the vote. Edwards will take the remaining 18% or so.
Republicans:
Prediction - Huckabee (25%), Mccain (22%), Romney (21%), Thompson (15%), Paul (9%), Guiliani (5%), Other (3%)
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
