This one should be interesting on the Republican side. Current polling shows it as a tie between McCain and Huckabee. It is nearly impossible to predict because it all depends on turnout. Each of the three groups that make up the Republican party (social conservatives, fiscal conservatives and national security hawks) seem to have a candidate they prefer... The majority of South Carolina voters in the GOP primary would likely fall into all three, but I would give a slight edge to Huckabee here. Fundamentalists are not fickle voters, and he certainly seems to speak to them. McCain is a recent religious convert and Romney is a Mormon, which some fundamentalists find heretical. This is going to be a close race, but Huckabee if Huckabee wins here.. he will likely win in Florida and b3yond.
The Republican primary is tomorrow 01/19.
At the end of the day, there are only minute differences in the platforms of the three main Democratic candidates. Obama will win in a rout here because of his charisma and his appeal to Black voters. This is not stereotyping.. it is easy to see why African Americans would be excited, especially in a state with such a racist history as SC, by the first (half)Black person to have a real chance at becoming president. John Edwards won SC in 2004 but he won't get it this time.. I expect Hillary Clinton to be third.
The Democratic primary is 01/26.
