you are making a very bold assumption that not only will wii U not just not follow a "normal" console curve but also outperform a phenomenon by 33%.  given a november launch (thus launching at the ~same time as the wii), if wii U's 2012 sales even out performs wii's 2006 sales i'll be impressed.

@bold. You know me :) But I wouldn't call it an assumption as much as I would call it a bold prediction like you said. :3

Yeah, like I said to mikeintellivision I'd consider the WiiU a failure if it sold below 2M.

Too bad none of those games are for 3DS.

They need to make a Mainline Pokemon so Pokemon Fans are forced to buy the 3DS like they were with Pokemon Pearl and Diamond.

Spurge, here take this:

I don't agree with his predictions in that thread, but you're missing the fact that the ~5M sales of 3DS are one region only, while he is predicting 5M in about two months globally. Globally, the 3DS has sold over 18 million consoles in its first 16 months.

He mentioned the eShop apps, which ARE for 3DS, and B2/W2 have extra 3DS-exclusive functions, including StreetPass support. The week of B2/W2's release in Japan, 3DS received an 18% hardware boost, despite the fact that it was the week the XL was announced (weekly 3DS HW sales have dropped every week since B2/W2's launch, despite big openings for games such as Culdcept and Etrian Odyssey IV, most likely due to this announcement).

With the XL already out and the Holiday season approaching at the time of B2/W2's western release, I expect the games will give 3DS hardware a significant regional boost of at least 20%, provided there isn't a major release the week before.

Nicer, and can easily be used to graph it, like this ;)

An App won't have as much of an affect as an actual game for the 3DS.

I think that the difining moment where it can be seen if 3DS will equal or surpass DS, will be when 3DS reaches the month of DS Lite and NSMB.

There were, in my opinion, five things that made DS a hit: DS Lite, NSMB, Nintendogs, Brain Training and Mario Kart.
So far `we have Mario Kart 7 and Nintendogs (which has pretty much failed to be effective).
3DS XL is a redesign but i don`t think that it will be, in long run, equal to the DS Lite redesign. Probably because the consoles still resembles too much DS.
NSMB2 will be hit for sure. Just waiting to see how far it can drive 3DS' sales in the long run.
Brain Training... can it still be effective after all those clones? I honestly see this one doing better in Japan than in the rest of the world (at least, in tie ratio).

Pokemon might just be a bigger hit due mainly to Streetpass. I don`t if it`s possible, but imagine that you could choose a Pokemon or two (don`t know how the game works! :D ) for automatic fights through Streetpass? You could increase/level up your Pokemon/characters easily and would allow for more people to really embrace Pokemon and take it to another level!

For this segment of your post, here are the sales of the brain training games.

And the hardware figures by region:

Tie Ratio:

Well I'm still skeptical since the 3DS already has sequels to the games that made the DS a massive success.  And as I said earlier, the DS sold abnormally well outside of the holidays, which the 3DS has yet to do.  Last thing to add, it's still early, but I feel if New Super Mario Bros. 2 doesn't make the 3DS sell 200k plus a week outside of holidays, then I don't think the 3DS will outsell the DS (Will still sell a butt load).