I think that the difining moment where it can be seen if 3DS will equal or surpass DS, will be when 3DS reaches the month of DS Lite and NSMB.
There were, in my opinion, five things that made DS a hit: DS Lite, NSMB, Nintendogs, Brain Training and Mario Kart.
So far `we have Mario Kart 7 and Nintendogs (which has pretty much failed to be effective).
3DS XL is a redesign but i don`t think that it will be, in long run, equal to the DS Lite redesign. Probably because the consoles still resembles too much DS.
NSMB2 will be hit for sure. Just waiting to see how far it can drive 3DS' sales in the long run.
Brain Training... can it still be effective after all those clones? I honestly see this one doing better in Japan than in the rest of the world (at least, in tie ratio).
Pokemon might just be a bigger hit due mainly to Streetpass. I don`t if it`s possible, but imagine that you could choose a Pokemon or two (don`t know how the game works! :D ) for automatic fights through Streetpass? You could increase/level up your Pokemon/characters easily and would allow for more people to really embrace Pokemon and take it to another level!
