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Forums - Politics Discussion - Predicting where the Bain capital charges against Romney will lead...

richardhutnik said:
gergroy said:
richardhutnik said:
Train wreck said:
It'll just continue the narrative that this administration is anti business and in the end that will hurt him.

If people want to spin a narrative that way.  So the opposite is being pro-business?  So the campaign is going to come down to whether you are pro-worker, and want the playing field more level, or you are pro-business and want to give the wealthy even more breaks?

The focus on Mitt and Bain capital is that Mitt got rich while his company oversaw the dismantling of businesses, saddling them with debt, and ended up costing workers jobs.  Part of the narrative, if you want to say "pro business" is that one view is that, if you cut breaks for business, they will suddenly do what is right, hire people and so on.  Economic laws mandate that, so long as people do what they can to line their own pockets, everyone else will benefit.  Well, everyone who is merits it of course.  Those who fall behind, OBVIOUSLY fall behind because they are parasite losers who only want a free handout anyhow.



The problem with the whole bain narrative is that democrats are trying to cherry pick what is actually a really good record on job creation. This is the big problem with politics, nobody looks like at the big picture. Personally, the bain attacks fall flat for me. I just wish people werent dumb enough to listen to these cherry picked attacks. Unfortunately, people will listen, especially people that are already biased against either side.

The Bain narrative, because Bain is going to be used by Romney as justification for him being able to do job creation, is to look at exactly what the job creation was, and if such happened on purpose or was just an accidental byproduct.  When you try to look at Romney and job creation at Bain, you find it hard to nail anything down: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303292204577519293959381060.html

The different methods of counting underscore what many experts say is the futility of trying to pin a number on something that is essentially unquantifiable. Creating jobs also wasn't the aim of Bain or other private-equity firms, which measure success by returns produced for investors.

Reason why?  Bain capital has NO thought to job creation.  It was trying to maximize return on investment.  Bain didn't track jobs created or lost.  Job creation was a byproduct of some things that went right.  But, it wasn't the byproduct.  So, how exactly then can Romney use what Bain did as evidence of him knowing how to create jobs, when his company didn't set out to do this at all?  

And this is the deeper narrative.  The line of attack here has the goal of making Bain irrelevant to Romney discussing his qualifications to be able to create jobs.  He can't bring it up without it being seen as a negative.  With that off the table, then you have Romney as governor of Mass. and that wasn't good either for Romney.  Attacks on Obama regarding job creation get thrown into Boston harbor, along with attacks of Reagan on environmental issues.


So, because bain wasnt trying to create jobs it doesnt matter?  Bains primary purpose was to make money, just like every business.  However, what bain did was they invested in companies and attempted to grow them so they could sell off their investment at a profit.  Now, most of the time that involved expanding the business, which almost always meant expanding the workforce (ie creating jobs). There were also times that romney was unsuccessful and ended up tearing the companies apart, but i think both experiences give romney a very good insight as to how businesses create and lose jobs.  More so than any kind of government position could.  

Like i said the bain attacks fall flat for me.  I would love if the candidates would actually debate the merits and failures of their policy positions, but i dont think either candidate really wants that.  I mean, lets be honest, neither one of the candidates have Been very forthcoming on what they actual plan to do, this election is why the other candidate sucks.  As an independent, im wishing i had another option.



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gergroy said:

Like i said the bain attacks fall flat for me.  I would love if the candidates would actually debate the merits and failures of their policy positions, but i dont think either candidate really wants that.  I mean, lets be honest, neither one of the candidates have Been very forthcoming on what they actual plan to do, this election is why the other candidate sucks.  As an independent, im wishing i had another option.

Reality is that I am not sure anyone knows what to do.  You do have the more government spending on projects on the Democratic side.  The GOP is rolling out the same old "need more tax cuts and cut regulations".  It is the same tune, but able to have them speak differently?  Well, they just don't know.  I understand that the federal department in charge of trying to increase employment is reorganizing itself into a think tank to figure out what to do.

In my case, I am hoping I get a contract assignment coming through to do IT support from home.  I am looking at even lower rates than I did in 2004-2005 for this.  But, it is what it is.  So, it isn't just jobs, it is maintaining the standard of living.

The focus on the attacks and the issue is the role of government and total faith in markets.  For those who believe that letting business do its own thing means more for everyone, it is a non-issue.  But, for others, it is the issue of the role of government here.  Can government do anything or is markets alone sufficient?  The GOP solution is nothing by government, the Democrats is programs.  And neither seems to be the answer actually.



The attacks aren't going to to a bit of damage in the end. A company got in business to make money? OMG, what a shock.

Let's look at facts. Private equity firms, like Bain, buy companies that are already in financial turmoil, like Staples and CST were, and try to restructure them to start making a profit. Sometimes it works (see Staples) and sometimes it doesn't (GST Steel). To actually suggest these companies just want to buy companies to sell off their assets for a quick profit is just ridiculous and a flat out lie. One only has to look at the fact that Bain kept GST Steel alive for around 8 years or so after it acquired it, 8 years longer those people kept their jobs if Bain didn't acquire them. If Bain just wanted to sell the assets, they would have done it 7-8 years prior.

It's already obvious this attack didn't work, since now they are switching to the "outsourcing attack." Which is going to do nothing, as well, since Obama had no problem with his job Czar moving factories overseas, is cool with using a travel agency that is located in India and China to book trips, and gave plenty of tax money to foreign companies.



Kasz216 said:

I'd say nowhere.

I don't get why Obama is pushing it so hard... it doesn't seem to be pushing the numbers at all, and if anything is hurting his campaign.


False.  Look at the trend lines in the battleground states since the Bain ads starting running.  

here's Ohio, for example, which has been getting heavy play of Bain-related material.  See also Florida and Virginia.

 

It's getting play because it touches on all the chords of discontent in the heartland of the country, and it plays well across all demographics outside of Romney's peers.  When you isolate the Bain attacks outside of the presidential race, it plays even better  - - people's perceptions of the president overcome their distaste for Romney in some cases.  But to say this line of reasoning isn't working is just patently false according to all data available.  Bain and tax returns are going to haunt Romney through November.  If the economic numbers don't collapse, Romney has little chance of prevailing.  



Can't we all just get along and play our games in peace?

fastyxx said:
Kasz216 said:

I'd say nowhere.

I don't get why Obama is pushing it so hard... it doesn't seem to be pushing the numbers at all, and if anything is hurting his campaign.


False.  Look at the trend lines in the battleground states since the Bain ads starting running.  

here's Ohio, for example, which has been getting heavy play of Bain-related material.  See also Florida and Virginia.

 

It's getting play because it touches on all the chords of discontent in the heartland of the country, and it plays well across all demographics outside of Romney's peers.  When you isolate the Bain attacks outside of the presidential race, it plays even better  - - people's perceptions of the president overcome their distaste for Romney in some cases.  But to say this line of reasoning isn't working is just patently false according to all data available.  Bain and tax returns are going to haunt Romney through November.  If the economic numbers don't collapse, Romney has little chance of prevailing.  

Unless Romney gets control of the Bain narrative, and makes it positive, he definitely is going to lose ground.  That is the part that is going on here, following up from the initial charges.  This happened to John Kerry in 2004.  He lost control of the Vietnam war area, and his swift boat experience got turned into a negative.  This could of been a strength going up against GW Bush who didn't go over to Vietnam, but it turned inti a weakness.  When I said the Rove playbook, I was referring to what someone I know said of Rove.  The idea is to take a candidates strength and turn it against him.  Making the campaign focus on Bain, and companies like Bain, is not a strength for Romney.  Romney needs to be on Obama, and discontent with current events.  Failure to do so doesn't help Romney.   And it ends up, on health care, Romney does end up with a position similar to John Kerry with GW Bush regarding Iraq.  

I would like to see the Florida polling.



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Theese two aren't zoomed in, but you can see the last month clearly.

Florida

 

Virginia 

 

Note how the lines are the averages, but it shows outliers.  Generally for all 3 polls, ROmney's outliers are low, and Obama's are high (with a couple noticeable exceptions.)  

Remember that margins are thin and the number of persuadable voters is relatively small.  A percent or two is a huge movement in a state like Florida.  

Bain + the Supreme Court ruling on ACA equaled a distinct separation between the two over the last month in these key states.  Quite obviously if Obama takes Ohio and Florida, the electoral rout is on.  



Can't we all just get along and play our games in peace?

fastyxx said:
Kasz216 said:

I'd say nowhere.

I don't get why Obama is pushing it so hard... it doesn't seem to be pushing the numbers at all, and if anything is hurting his campaign.


False.  Look at the trend lines in the battleground states since the Bain ads starting running.  

here's Ohio, for example, which has been getting heavy play of Bain-related material.  See also Florida and Virginia.

 

It's getting play because it touches on all the chords of discontent in the heartland of the country, and it plays well across all demographics outside of Romney's peers.  When you isolate the Bain attacks outside of the presidential race, it plays even better  - - people's perceptions of the president overcome their distaste for Romney in some cases.  But to say this line of reasoning isn't working is just patently false according to all data available.  Bain and tax returns are going to haunt Romney through November.  If the economic numbers don't collapse, Romney has little chance of prevailing.  

Those polls will change.  Romney has yet to name a VP candidate, which if he chooses wisely, will give him a boost.  Romney is also playing it smart.  Obama is burning through his money pretty much as soon as he gets it, putting out ads way too early.  Ones that the Reps. can easily counter by illustrating Obama's hypocrisy and then redirecting the focus on the economy.  Romney, on the other hand, has not only been outraising Obama of late, but he is also holding on to most of it.  So while Obama will be racking up debt late in the campaign, trying to put out ads to attack Romney, Romney will be unleashing all that money into an ad onslaught focused mainly on the bad economy.  Obama probably won't even see it coming.



I don't think the Obama camp's aim is to actually use those Bain Capital charges to harm Romney. I think they're actually being used defensively - sort of a "now you can't claim that the improvement in the economy/killing of Bin Laden/etc was thanks to Bush" and "now you can't use business experience as a way to claim superiority".

Many of the right wing's attacks on Obama are based on the idea that all of the good that Obama has achieved has been thanks to Bush's policies, and this serves to emphasise that, if you accept that, then you also have to accept that Romney is at fault for what Bain Capital did in the years following his departure but while he was still officially CEO and sole owner.

Kasz216 - even if they were still negotiating his buyout, he was still the sole owner, and thus was entirely able to give instructions that they had to follow, because he was still the owner.



thismeintiel said:

  Ones that the Reps. can easily counter by illustrating Obama's hypocrisy and then redirecting the focus on the economy.  

 


People that would buy that line of attack are already firmly in Romney's camp.  That's not a new line of approach, but rather one that's been coming for Rush and O'Reilly and Hannity since 2009.  It won't help him.

Do you really think that if people haven't bought into the Socialist liar apologizer Arab Kenyan non-citizen "gonna take all your guns" propaganda after three years of constant recitation, it ain't happening now.

THe reason the Bain atacks hurt Romeny is that it's the foundation of his entire campaign and it undermines his credibility and establishment of character as an alternative.  People know where they stand on Obama.  The masses who don't watch political TV in non-election years don't really know Romney beyond face value, and this is a poor introduction to a national race.  Remember, if you follow politics, you've seen ROmeny forever, but the vast masses don't pay but passing attention to primaries.  



Can't we all just get along and play our games in peace?

Aielyn said:
I don't think the Obama camp's aim is to actually use those Bain Capital charges to harm Romney. I think they're actually being used defensively - sort of a "now you can't claim that the improvement in the economy/killing of Bin Laden/etc was thanks to Bush" and "now you can't use business experience as a way to claim superiority".

Many of the right wing's attacks on Obama are based on the idea that all of the good that Obama has achieved has been thanks to Bush's policies, and this serves to emphasise that, if you accept that, then you also have to accept that Romney is at fault for what Bain Capital did in the years following his departure but while he was still officially CEO and sole owner.

Kasz216 - even if they were still negotiating his buyout, he was still the sole owner, and thus was entirely able to give instructions that they had to follow, because he was still the owner.

Pretty much by undermining what would be Romney's strongest argument, in an area that is a big weakness for Obama, that is jobs, the argument gets muted, so Romney has problems bringing up his private sector experience.  Idea is to kill the strongest position of Romney, by turning it into a minus.