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Forums - Nintendo - Lets predict the future of 3DS! (sales included!)

S.Peelman on 02 July 2012
davidd_err18 said:
S.Peelman said:

(..)


This has been my favorite analysis by far :D! You really know your stuff! And I agree with pretty much everything you said, except:

- I actually think that Nintendo will release Donkey Kong Country Returns 2 for the WiiU, it was one of the biggest sellers of the Wii with almost 10 million LTS. The WiiU needs those type of sales for Hardcore console games.

- Heroes of Ruin sent even sale 200,000 units

- Of course we will get an original Zelda AND a remake for the system! Nintendo has already said that they aré planing on releasing a remake of one of the following: The Legend of Zelda a Link to the Past or Majoras Mask. It will probably be developed by Grezzo, AND it will be released at least one year after the new one. 


Thanks for the praise! :)

I agree some of my predictions are pretty much taken out of thin air, like when I said Donkey Kong Country Returns 2 will be on 3DS. I also think it'll have a bigger chance to come to WiiU, but somehow I have a hunch it'll come to 3DS. I don't know why :P. Also, I was thinking Heroes of Ruin will have some good legs for the remainder of the system's life, when word of mouth continues to spread. A lot of people seem to like it, though my thinking really had no basis in actual facts.

I also read/heard of the Zelda rumours. I know mister Miyamoto was thinking of A Link to the Past in 3D (would then probably be a '3D Classic' I guess) and remaking Majora's Mask if there were enough people asking for it. Only an original game is really 'confirmed' though, not that we've seen anything but we know they're working on it and a WiiU game. Personally I don't think, because I'm not convinced, Majora's Mask will ever be released on 3DS, but I hope I get proven wrong. Believe you me, both games and the new original of course, would be intant-buy!

Anyway, 3DS is really shaping up to be the best (my favourite at least) handheld ever released. For me, it already surpassed GBA (the weakest, most games I have for it are remakes and ports) and DS. Only GameBoy (which includes GBC) is still ahead of it in terms of awesomeness if you asked me! :D Maybe that's why I'm so interested.



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DieAppleDie on 02 July 2012

Yeah Luigis Mansion has a lot of preorders on th US but i think the Mario name sells a lot more in the EU, it will be a close fight between the bros.:)



sperrico87 on 03 July 2012
NintendoPie said:
ROFLMAO said:

I think that New Super Mario Bros. 2 will be massive. People at my work were talking about video games the other day, and four or five of the seven that were there (not including me), all massive "HARDKOR 4EVERZ" type gamers are buying 3DS' with NSMB2, they said that it looked innovative and appealed to their competitive natures, if Nintendo can pull in that crowd, as well as bringing back the casuals, it could be as big or bigger than the original. Whilst I'm here, I may as well make a few lifetime sales predictions :P

NSMB2- 28,500,000

SM3DL- 16,250,000

MK7- 22,750,000

KI:U- 4,500,000

Inevitable Pokemon Game- 24,570,000

MH3G- 6,500,000

MH4- 10,000,000

Pokemon Rumble Blast- 3,000,000

Paper Mario: Sticker Star- 5,750,000

Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon- 5,100,000

I'll predict the 3DS' lifetime sales as being around 135 million, based on Mario+Pokemon+3rd Parties. It will be huge, no doubt, but I don't think it will be as big as DS is/was.

Some of your predictions seem a little high. (The 3DS Sales and Pokemon one come to mind.) Why do you think Pokemon on 3DS could sell that much? Has any Pokemon (after Sapphire and Ruby) gotten that high?


Paper Mario, based on first three entires in the series, and the fact that handheld games historically do not sell in as large of quantities as home console games, will not sell more than 3 million lifetime.  Same with Luigi's Mansion. 

I think you're absolutely right that NSMB2, MK7, and 3DLand are bound to sell over 15 million lifetime, but I would say it's unlikely, given 3DS's performace outside the Japanese market, that any of those three titles match or exceed 20 million.  It just seems very unlikely to me.

Kid Icarus is unlikely to even exceed 2 million at this point.  It fell to the #100 in the US last week, and it's only three months old.

I'm surprised you made no mention of Animal Crossing: Jump Out in your predictions.  Animal Crossing has historically been a huge long-tail seller for both DS, GameCube, and Wii.  I would think that game will exceed at least 10 million in sales during 3DS's lifecycle, and mabye even hit 15 million depending on market conditions two or three years down the line, when 3DS sales will have eclipsed and began receding.

It is reasonable to assume at least one or two Kirby games will be produced for 3DS, and those will sell 1-2 million each, possibly more. 

The big wild card of course is Smash Bros, since this will be the first time Nintendo has released one for a handheld to complement the home console version.  Whether it ends up being bundled with the Wii U disc, or it is a seperate retail product for 3DS, it is bound to exceed 5 to 6 million.



 

NintendoPie on 03 July 2012
sperrico87 said:
NintendoPie said:

Some of your predictions seem a little high. (The 3DS Sales and Pokemon one come to mind.) Why do you think Pokemon on 3DS could sell that much? Has any Pokemon (after Sapphire and Ruby) gotten that high?


Paper Mario, based on first three entires in the series, and the fact that handheld games historically do not sell in as large of quantities as home console games, will not sell more than 3 million lifetime.  Same with Luigi's Mansion. 

I think you're absolutely right that NSMB2, MK7, and 3DLand are bound to sell over 15 million lifetime, but I would say it's unlikely, given 3DS's performace outside the Japanese market, that any of those three titles match or exceed 20 million.  It just seems very unlikely to me.

Kid Icarus is unlikely to even exceed 2 million at this point.  It fell to the #100 in the US last week, and it's only three months old.

I'm surprised you made no mention of Animal Crossing: Jump Out in your predictions.  Animal Crossing has historically been a huge long-tail seller for both DS, GameCube, and Wii.  I would think that game will exceed at least 10 million in sales during 3DS's lifecycle, and mabye even hit 15 million depending on market conditions two or three years down the line, when 3DS sales will have eclipsed and began receding.

It is reasonable to assume at least one or two Kirby games will be produced for 3DS, and those will sell 1-2 million each, possibly more. 

The big wild card of course is Smash Bros, since this will be the first time Nintendo has released one for a handheld to complement the home console version.  Whether it ends up being bundled with the Wii U disc, or it is a seperate retail product for 3DS, it is bound to exceed 5 to 6 million.

Are you supposed to be quoting me or the guy who I quoted?



S.Peelman on 03 July 2012
sperrico87 said:

(..)

It is reasonable to assume at least one or two Kirby games will be produced for 3DS, and those will sell 1-2 million each, possibly more. 

The big wild card of course is Smash Bros, (..) , it is bound to exceed 5 to 6 million.


Ah yes, ofcourse! I forgot about Kirby and Super Smash Bros. in my analysis. Should've mentioned those. I think you could be quite right about those sales.