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sperrico87 on 03 July 2012
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NintendoPie said:
ROFLMAO said:

I think that New Super Mario Bros. 2 will be massive. People at my work were talking about video games the other day, and four or five of the seven that were there (not including me), all massive "HARDKOR 4EVERZ" type gamers are buying 3DS' with NSMB2, they said that it looked innovative and appealed to their competitive natures, if Nintendo can pull in that crowd, as well as bringing back the casuals, it could be as big or bigger than the original. Whilst I'm here, I may as well make a few lifetime sales predictions :P

NSMB2- 28,500,000

SM3DL- 16,250,000

MK7- 22,750,000

KI:U- 4,500,000

Inevitable Pokemon Game- 24,570,000

MH3G- 6,500,000

MH4- 10,000,000

Pokemon Rumble Blast- 3,000,000

Paper Mario: Sticker Star- 5,750,000

Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon- 5,100,000

I'll predict the 3DS' lifetime sales as being around 135 million, based on Mario+Pokemon+3rd Parties. It will be huge, no doubt, but I don't think it will be as big as DS is/was.

Some of your predictions seem a little high. (The 3DS Sales and Pokemon one come to mind.) Why do you think Pokemon on 3DS could sell that much? Has any Pokemon (after Sapphire and Ruby) gotten that high?


Paper Mario, based on first three entires in the series, and the fact that handheld games historically do not sell in as large of quantities as home console games, will not sell more than 3 million lifetime.  Same with Luigi's Mansion. 

I think you're absolutely right that NSMB2, MK7, and 3DLand are bound to sell over 15 million lifetime, but I would say it's unlikely, given 3DS's performace outside the Japanese market, that any of those three titles match or exceed 20 million.  It just seems very unlikely to me.

Kid Icarus is unlikely to even exceed 2 million at this point.  It fell to the #100 in the US last week, and it's only three months old.

I'm surprised you made no mention of Animal Crossing: Jump Out in your predictions.  Animal Crossing has historically been a huge long-tail seller for both DS, GameCube, and Wii.  I would think that game will exceed at least 10 million in sales during 3DS's lifecycle, and mabye even hit 15 million depending on market conditions two or three years down the line, when 3DS sales will have eclipsed and began receding.

It is reasonable to assume at least one or two Kirby games will be produced for 3DS, and those will sell 1-2 million each, possibly more. 

The big wild card of course is Smash Bros, since this will be the first time Nintendo has released one for a handheld to complement the home console version.  Whether it ends up being bundled with the Wii U disc, or it is a seperate retail product for 3DS, it is bound to exceed 5 to 6 million.