Guess I'll actually contribute this time.

I think there is "some" (how much I don't know nor will I bother trying to guess) waned interest in the GTA series.

Avinash was kind enough to post the sales data for the PSP titles and their PS2 ports.

It’s worth mentioning a glitch with Liberty City Stories allowed users to more easily downgrade their PSP’s firmware, making it easier to mod. Which might account for it’s higher sales than it’s sequel.

Also the Vice city port is missing others data, but it’s American launch comparisons are less than half of what the Liberty City Port was, so it’s safe to assume it probably sold considerably less there as well. Both ports were released at budget prices as well, $20 in the US.

Also Naz, the PSP games weren’t remakes like Resident Evil 4. They had their own missions, story, and characters and allegedly tied loose ends together, or something, I didn’t actually play them. But it wasn’t literally GTA III and GTA Vice Cities ported onto the PSP, then back to the PS2.

Rehashes would probably be accurate and it sounded like neither really didn’t do a whole lot new, and both reuses locations from the previous games, so it’s still expected to sell less. But they were new GTA titles, and I believe at least the PSP versions were fairly well promoted and well received. (I still remember the slick commercials)

My point, if I have one, is I do think the GTA series peaked (sales wise) at San Andreas. It was the extremely highly awaited sequel released later in the 6th Generation when the PS2’s already large install based was even larger then when the last two titles came out. I really don’t think IV’s sales on both the PS3 and 360 can quite top that between there smaller combined install base and was I perceive is somewhat faded interest.

GTA III was really genre defining when it was released and it’s sequels improved on III’s foundation and rode the wave. But it’s not really a genre by itself anymore. There’s been numerous “clones” of it some of which are trying different tweaks and gimmicks to different themselves and Grand Theft Auto isn’t your only choice for mindless sandbox violence anymore, and as some people already mentioned, nor is it everyone’s preference.

I guess a lot of this will depend on how things pan out in the actual game. I’ve been turned off by previews claming it’ll be a more gritty realistic GTA, when the main draw for the GTA games for me was how horridly detached from reality it was, but that’s just me. 

@ BrainBox, great analysis, I personally think that there will be another GTA this gen, which will outsell SA. However, I do too worry about it being more gritty which could be a turn off for some consumers, although there will still be millions who buy it cause its a GTA game

I really believe that GTA4 will really mark the shift of gaming into the HD era for PS3 and 360. Of course, the PS3 will get the bigger boost since there are many GTA fans who have a PS2, and only know of playing GTA on the PS2 and will move naturally to the PS3. Even with the extra content, it doesn't sway me into purchasing it for the 360 over the PS3 and I will buy it for the PS3. The GTA series has always been a huge game with tons of content, and I really don't see a need to add more content to a already huge open game like that.

So, look at GTA4 to boost sales for both consoles, moreso on the PS3 as they have been outselling the 360 in recent weeks with a arguably weaker game library then the 360. The recent Live issues as well as the RRoD will sway more buyers of the systems then extra content. I'd expect that combined, GTA4 will sell 12+ million games within a years time.

GTA4 will help the PS3 more than the 360. You're going to get a lot of PS2 players who haven't upgraded yet because of price. If Sony drops the PS3 price with the GTA4 release then except the PS3 to be sold out. It won't however stop the Wii from selling.

What if MS drops the price of the 360 to $199/279/349 price points? What if MS gets their tagline at the end of GTA IV commercials? What if MS advertises the crap out of the upcoming DLC?

There are too many questions to blindly state that GTA IV is going to help one console substantially over the other. A lot can happen and if MS feels they are in the position to really deal Sony a blow before MGS/GT/FF hit shelves, there's a good chance they pull the trigger on it.

They're definitely in the financial position to do so while the same cannot be said for Sony. 

 The attach rates are merely to show that people who think that GTA will cause the Wii to stop selling are living in a fantasy world

Ah, okay.

In that case, I agree. The Wii is not going to stop selling until Nintendo discontinues it. I don't understand why people can't accept that we have the next PS2 on our hands, though since the demographics are so split in this generation, it probably won't completely overwhelm the second and third place consoles like the PS2 did. 

GTA is praticaly synonymous with the Sony brand . I'm expecting it to give the PS3 a signficant boost in sales. I think A PS3+GTA bundle with a price cut would send the PS3 to 10.5-11 Million Consoles by it's release.

To the folks that think the PS3 will get a significant boost in sales:

Can you give the class a few reasons why you believe this will happen?

If I were on the fence, I would think about this quote and run to the 360.

"They're identical games. We're not hardware makers, and we're not like a pawn between these companies, we try not to be as much as we can. We make great games for people to enjoy on whichever system they want. But I guess if you want the complete experience with the episodes, then yeah, you should buy the 360, I suppose."

With a lower price point, no real differences, you really, REALLY expect brand to win? What about software totals? What about Assassin's Creed, which was a PS3 exclusive? The 360 sold 2.5m - the PS3 sold 1.6M.

If you think that MS won't tout the devil out of that quote above, think again. MS isn't about to lose or come up short with GTA. They lost it once - they aren't gonna let that happen again.

Lastly, and this is just a thought, what if MS decides to give away the first episode? The extra content is really, really gonna have folks wondering if there's no difference between the versions, why should I spend $399 if all I want to do is play the game?