Sales don't just triple for sustained periods, no matter how good the game is. If Vita is to recover it will be a slow, momentum driven process where each new game bumps it up a few thousand.

It's just not a single game, it's a bunch of games spread out over the month in addition to a new color.

Like outlaw said, that month has a few things in the Vita's favor: I just highlighted this one because I'd forgotten all about it. Between the two games and the new color, I can see weekly sales spiking, to different degrees, enough to average out to 15k a week for the month.

Persona could do upwards off 200k first week. And Gundam/MGS/new color should help as well. June should see much higher weekly vita numbers than may.

200K first week seems absurdly optimistic to me, unless the Vita userbase has already largely absorbed fans of the new Persona games. On the flipside, I know there's some kind of anime tie-in.

I would think so. The Pre-Order Charts for Japan have it quite high on points.

11		School life of hope and betrayal - Lok flowers 2 to Pachipuro Fuun story Pachipara 3D ocean	Irem Software Engineering	12/05/17	6,144 6,144

ooh, my favorite!

For sure less than XI but I'm guessing at least 500'000. (Or near it.)

Preorders look excellent with retailers saying that they are double that of Persona 4 on ps2 (which debuted at 200k). So I don't see a 200k being absurdley optimistic. Optimistic yes, but reasonably so. And I obviously expect it to move a lot of hardware. 

Hmm, wasn't aware of that. In that case, I can see it being plausible. Although that would mean that roughly a third of the system's userbase is going to purchase the same title. That's pretty odd to me, considering it's been out for over a year.