kn,

I agree they should have be more agreessive to counter Sony NOW.
Basically this end of year figure are not great for MS.
If MS would have made a 100$ price cut , they would :

- have sold more console
- have heavly countered the PS3 price drop that would have put the PS3 in an even BIGGER shit that it was.

stof,

I also see the GTA4 release has a potential turning point. If GTA4 doesnt bomb, if the GTA4 Xbox360 version is better, if the dl content is worth the value, if MS make a price drop, all these type of things, it could be very VERY good for the Xbox360's sales.

I think the problem is the statement 'trouble'.

I never expected 360 to do fantastic in 'Others' from the start. It did not have the right brand image and presence (particularly outside UK). This has proved true and q cuik comparison and the percentage split of PS3 and Wii vs 360 (or DS and PSP)across US, Others and Japan shows this starkly.

Really, this isn't something that has developed but was there from the start. MS is seen as too hardcore, too like a PC, yada yada... all the reasons have been well discussed on other threads.

So, nothing new has happened recently really from 360 point of view - they've simply failed to do enough with marketing and games library to be able to improve in 'Others'.

The only change is PS3 is now starting to sell better in 'Others' - but again it always should have so this is not a surprise either.

The real surprise for me is that compared to Wii and PS2 the PS3 does not have great library for 'Others' yet (i.e. not enough casual / family games). However, particularly if LBP launches right this should change during 2008 - so I expect to see PS3 sales grow in 2008 due to:

a) better library for 'Others' combined with better price points (particularly if BR wins format wars)

b) gaming market is growing in 'Others' as well - so I expect in not too distant future we could see combined 'Others' starting to rival US for total sales HW and SW.

There is no reason 360 couln't improve in 'Others' - but it won't without action from MS as right now it does not have what it would take to do so (IMO). The only place the 360 is really in trouble is Japan - but that's not a surprise and strictly speaking its probably improved MS presence a little (I just think MS need to realise that at current rates of improvement they won't have a chance in that market until 2050 or something like that!)

Oh, and while GTA games sell well in 'Others' the main market is US - so I doubt GTA4 is going to be a game that would change 360 position in 'Others' - if anything it just confirms it as a hardcore console rather than family friendly.

 

"I don't really think the 360 is in trouble in Others. They have had a small price cut - if they got a price cut at all. The PS3 is very close in price, and even with the reliability issues, it's still close in terms of sales."

==> how to turn the things on ur side :

PS3 : 400euros
Xbox360 premium + 2 games (including FORZA) : 350euros

I dont even mention the Xbox360 has the best 07 line-up and possess some very low price model (who said "Arcade" ?)

yeah, PS3 is very close in price ...

So lets say that the PS3 does end up taking second place this generation...think about the irony surrounding Microsoft. Most people thought that MS had no chance of competing with Sony or Nintendo last gen, yet the Xbox managed second place and left Nintendo in third. Now we could be witnessing Microsoft finishing where they were originally expected to when they entered the console market.

I can't imagine how Microsoft would react to going BACKWARDS from last gen in terms of market share when it was supposed to be a steady ten or fifteen year climb to market leadership.

Neglecting price changes for all three platforms, IMO the 360 is in serious problems.

The biggest worry may be that the XBox 360 userbase hasn't expanded much from mainly upgrading XBox fans (a platform lacking software support for years). So this additional positive effect will see its end soon enough (probably for 2009 this will be almost neglectable), I think this year will be the 360's last OK year, but the best years are already in the past.

The PS3 will see an enormous boost in Japan with the high profile exclusives and also the anticipated multiplatform games will boost PS3 sales much more than for the 360.

In Europe I think the 360 will be driven into the background, the PS3 will overtake the total 360 install base there, despite a 1 year and 5 months headstart for the 360.

The only places I see the 360 perform well enough this year is the US, Australia and the UK, but the PS3 blockbusters will probably see the PS3 outselling the 360 there this year as well. Blu-Ray movie compatibility may also play a more profound role to the advantage of the PS3 this year, improving multiplatform games and Home will kill much of the 360 fan bragging rights.

Yea, I think it'll end in third. Sony have done one thing right this generation, and that is treating Europe as an important marked. Neither MS or Nintendo does that, and it's allowing Sony to get a foothold in Europe. Stupid....just stupid.

To be honest I think the 360 and PS3 are on even money atm; either one could still pull away from here.

With regards to MS dropping the price on the 360 I feel that microsoft has done a good Job.  You can see the sale volume world wide for the 360 was very reasonable from the 5th August 2007 until the 30th December 2007

•     PS3               4,486,047
•     XBOX360      5,829,221

During this period the Xbox360 outsold the PS3 by more than 20%. Sure if MS had dropped the price before christmas the sales now would have been higher, however, the price cut will prove to be a good tool in driving momentum throughout 2008 and their was no real need to reduce their profit over the holiday season.

Secondly MS had to consider the reliability of their product before another price reduction. Engineers have been focused on making the Xbox 360 more reliable. Also they have a more cost effective revision due out shorty.

Thirdly MS had alot of factory refurbished machines which they need to move before introducing the new pricing.

Taking all these points into account, MS will reduce the price within the first 1/2 of 2008, but it would be likely timed to either build momentum when needed, or when there is a shortage of new hit software.

 

 

 

ando88 said: So lets say that the PS3 does end up taking second place this generation...think about the irony surrounding Microsoft. Most people thought that MS had no chance of competing with Sony or Nintendo last gen, yet the Xbox managed second place and left Nintendo in third. Now we could be witnessing Microsoft finishing where they were originally expected to when they entered the console market. I can't imagine how Microsoft would react to going BACKWARDS from last gen in terms of market share when it was supposed to be a steady ten or fifteen year climb to market leadership.

 I think that third would be a welcomed position for MS IF

• Sony achieved 30-35% market share
• They sell 45-60 million units
• They force far less exclusives on the PS3 

MikeB said: Neglecting price changes for all three platforms, IMO the 360 is in serious problems. The biggest worry may be that the XBox 360 userbase hasn't expanded much from mainly upgrading XBox fans (a platform lacking software support for years). So this additional positive effect will see its end soon enough (probably for 2009 this will be almost neglectable), I think this year will be the 360's last OK year, but the best years are already in the past. The PS3 will see an enormous boost in Japan with the high profile exclusives and also the anticipated multiplatform games will boost PS3 sales much more than for the 360. In Europe I think the 360 will be driven into the background, the PS3 will overtake the total 360 install base there, despite a 1 year and 5 months headstart for the 360. The only places I see the 360 perform well enough this year is the US, Australia and the UK, but the PS3 blockbusters will probably see the PS3 outselling the 360 there this year as well. Blu-Ray movie compatibility may also play a more profound role to the advantage of the PS3 this year, improving multiplatform games and Home will kill much of the 360 fan bragging rights.

I think that no one is factoring in Microsofts total plan, which does make a huge difference to their position now and over the next 3-4 years.

Firstly MS has never been interested in hardware, they are a software company and some people think that they have become very good at that (Somepeople). MS knows that the best way to drive a platform is through competition and they have stated recently that they are going to license the platform to a number of OEMs and Brand name customers. There are a number of ways that they are going about this and some of them are as follows

• Work with IPTV providers to provide a set top box to provide their IPTV.
• licence the platform to set top box manufactures
• licence the platform for use in PVR etc
• licence the platform to toshiba who were going to lauch an xbox360/HDDVD combo with DVR.
• licence the platform to other PC manufactures to be used as Media extenders.

This is a interesting plan as we would see many variants of the same platform available through many sales channels and competition would grow and in some case reduce pricing.

With this plan MS falls back into the same roll the company has taken for many years, and that is of producing software, but driving each successive generation of the xbox internally.

Secondly MS never put a harddrive into the XBox360 for a good reason "MEDIA CENTER" as the prices of the xbox reduces over the years, the base Xbox will become sub $100USD. This then becomes practical to have these throughout the home (kids bedroom, living room, main bedroom etc). With the use of Media center or a windows pc MS has now taken over the digital entertainment for the living room. Licensing the platform will obviously bring competition and help MS to achieve their goal.

Sure the software is still in it infancy, but ultimately when the price becomes sub $100USD, the software will be ready and able to preform all these tasks simply and easily. As the software evolves more and more people will become aware of the connectivity and be drawn to MS. The Xbox does not just represent a battle between MS and Sony, it goes alot further and represents a battle against its major rivals

• Google
• Apple
• and Sony

Microsoft is positioning it pieces and shortly they will be put into action, if you thought the war is already been waged, then think again, gaming is just a small piece of the xbox plan for your living room.

Another major point to MS success was not to put alot of emphasis onto HD-DVD vs BR, as their future lies in digital distribution (and again the Media centre approach). Doing this was only prolonging the uptake of HD-DVD or BR content and positioning MS in a position where before HD-DVD or BR became mainstream they were already offering the same content streamed to media center or the Xbox.

Back to my point

Ultimately, if the plan is well laid out and converged properly, then adoptance in Japan and Europe is just a matter of time as multiple systems will be levered off one another, when you buy an xbox you are buying more than just a gaming machine, you are buying a machine that will do alot more:

• Search
• Gaming
• Media distrubition (shoping, renting, iptv)
• Music
• Video
• home automation.
• Video calling etc.

 Overall MS is waging the war for the living room, not just gaming, and ultimatly I think they will/ need to succeed.