Is the 360 in trouble?

[MikeB]

Neglecting price changes for all three platforms, IMO the 360 is in serious problems.

The biggest worry may be that the XBox 360 userbase hasn't expanded much from mainly upgrading XBox fans (a platform lacking software support for years). So this additional positive effect will see its end soon enough (probably for 2009 this will be almost neglectable), I think this year will be the 360's last OK year, but the best years are already in the past.

The PS3 will see an enormous boost in Japan with the high profile exclusives and also the anticipated multiplatform games will boost PS3 sales much more than for the 360.

In Europe I think the 360 will be driven into the background, the PS3 will overtake the total 360 install base there, despite a 1 year and 5 months headstart for the 360.

The only places I see the 360 perform well enough this year is the US, Australia and the UK, but the PS3 blockbusters will probably see the PS3 outselling the 360 there this year as well. Blu-Ray movie compatibility may also play a more profound role to the advantage of the PS3 this year, improving multiplatform games and Home will kill much of the 360 fan bragging rights.