I really think people are coming to conclusions too quickly. 360 is at a huge disadvantage the last couple weeks because the sales in NA drop to post christmas levels faster than others, and Japan numbers are actually increasing rather than decreasing. The holidays in Spain this last week further skew the results.

The only thing that we can really say with any certainty is that PS3 seems to have gained more momentum in others, but as far as NA and Japan goes i'm not sure anything has really improved.

Well you have to realize even if the ps3 did like 200k more a month worldwide then 360, it would take a LONG time for them to even catch up.

If ps3 were to pass 360, at the rate its going it would probably be late 2009 or earliy 2010. However, the 360 will likely receive a price drop or 2 this year and that could help it a lot.

I don't really think the 360 is in trouble in Others. They have had a small price cut - if they got a price cut at all. The PS3 is very close in price, and even with the reliability issues, it's still close in terms of sales.

As everyone has stated, I think we should wait and see how sales are looking by mid-February. When MS rolls out a price cut, I can definitely see 360 sales taking off again.

The thing you need to realize is, IMHO, Sony has the brand going for it. Folks there will buy a PS3 because of the PS in front of it. They are like 'Hay, it won last time, it will win this time.' They aren't worried about the games - they see the PS as a BR player and will have tons of games eventually. I, however, see potential in the PS3, but will refrain from buying one until I see more games that I like and full BC, not software emulation.

Sony will have to outsell MS by 147,000 units per week for the next year to catch MS lead by the end of 2008, which means that if MS continues the same sales numbers during 08 as 07 they would have to be selling as much as the Wii.

 What i find hard to believe is many people on this site are claiming Sony has had a huge boost in sales, which is true, however this was done on the back of a great plan from sony, instead of dropping the price on it lucrative bravio LCD screens, it is giving away PS3's, which have been counted in the sales numbers.
 Moreso, this has had some effect on the momentum of Sony's PS3, however these promotions can only be short lived, until other manufacturer counter sonys plan with price reductions on their LCD screens. Launching their giveaway only 2 months from christmas allowed them to win the Christmas battle in the LCD area, while helping to promote the PS3.

 If you evaluate the sales volume over the period (NOV/DEC 07) MS clearly sold more units than Sony. Interesting enough i visited a number of retailers in Australia, and found that they were completely sold out of both Wiis and 360's. They did have a sign on the wii stand saying " sorry sold of off Wiis, but plenty of PS3s so thumbs up". talking to some salespeople, they said that they had sold out od 360s before christmas and couldn't get any until the suppliers reopened after new year.

Im not saying that the PS3 wont outsell the 360, but if it did, i would expect it will take another 2 years of astonishing numbers, and by then the war is lost. If MS ends the generation with +/- 20% market share compared to Sony, then that is a great victory for MS.

 Also anyone saying that MS blew any profit they were going to make last year with their $50 price drop is dreaming. The $50 price reduction was factored in to their plan. Also the $1 billion cost for the RROD was written off Mid last year.

 I think MS will counter strongly this year, with a large competitive game lineup, and a more competitive price. My predictions is that we will be able to see the winners and losers from this generation by the end of 2008. My forecast is as follows

 

•  Nintendo Biggest winner, with the largest amount of profit, and largest install base ( as long as they innovate over 2008)

• MS will turn constant profits in the gaming division from Mid 2008 onwards due to their install base. They will finish the generation with a market share 10-15% lower than  Sony.

• Sony will sell more units than MS by the end of the generation, however would have conceded the most amount of market share to both MS and Nintendo. They will report a small net profit from the PS3 business, but will need to change their plans for the PS4. 

 

Nidan said: Sony will have to outsell MS by 147,000 units per week for the next year to catch MS lead by the end of 2008, which means that if MS continues the same sales numbers during 08 as 07 they would have to be selling as much as the Wii. What i find hard to believe is many people on this site are claiming Sony has had a huge boost in sales, which is true, however this was done on the back of a great plan from sony, instead of dropping the price on it lucrative bravio LCD screens, it is giving away PS3's, which have been counted in the sales numbers. Moreso, this has had some effect on the momentum of Sony's PS3, however these promotions can only be short lived, until other manufacturer counter sonys plan with price reductions on their LCD screens. Launching their giveaway only 2 months from christmas allowed them to win the Christmas battle in the LCD area, while helping to promote the PS3. If you evaluate the sales volume over the period (NOV/DEC 07) MS clearly sold more units than Sony. Interesting enough i visited a number of retailers in Australia, and found that they were completely sold out of both Wiis and 360's. They did have a sign on the wii stand saying " sorry sold of off Wiis, but plenty of PS3s so thumbs up". talking to some salespeople, they said that they had sold out od 360s before christmas and couldn't get any until the suppliers reopened after new year. Im not saying that the PS3 wont outsell the 360, but if it did, i would expect it will take another 2 years of astonishing numbers, and by then the war is lost. If MS ends the generation with +/- 20% market share compared to Sony, then that is a great victory for MS. Also anyone saying that MS blew any profit they were going to make last year with their $50 price drop is dreaming. The $50 price reduction was factored in to their plan. Also the $1 billion cost for the RROD was written off Mid last year. I think MS will counter strongly this year, with a large competitive game lineup, and a more competitive price. My predictions is that we will be able to see the winners and losers from this generation by the end of 2008. My forecast is as follows   Nintendo Biggest winner, with the largest amount of profit, and largest install base ( as long as they innovate over 2008) MS will turn constant profits in the gaming division from Mid 2008 onwards due to their install base. They will finish the generation with a market share 10-15% lower than Sony. Sony will sell more units than MS by the end of the generation, however would have conceded the most amount of market share to both MS and Nintendo. They will report a small net profit from the PS3 business, but will need to change their plans for the PS4.

 I was with you the whole way until i read this.  This shouldn't even be up for debate, this utterly impossible and will not happen.  Even if the PS3 started profiting like the ps2 for its last 4 years (almost 0
% chance) it would still come short by well over a billion dollars.  

All of these numbers don't even take into account the fact that PS2 and PSP are offsetting losses from the PS3 this whole time. 

madskillz said: I, however, see potential in the PS3, but will refrain from buying one until I see more games that I like and full BC, not software emulation.

They will never not use software emulation going forward.  Just out of curiosity, why is it so important for you? It's much better BC then the 360 and you bought that console. Plus, you own a PS2.

i think it's in HUGE trouble......sales are decreasing and no new ideas.....it will be defeated by ps3 in 2008..... (my opinion)

johnsobas said: Nidan said: Sony will have to outsell MS by 147,000 units per week for the next year to catch MS lead by the end of 2008, which means that if MS continues the same sales numbers during 08 as 07 they would have to be selling as much as the Wii. What i find hard to believe is many people on this site are claiming Sony has had a huge boost in sales, which is true, however this was done on the back of a great plan from sony, instead of dropping the price on it lucrative bravio LCD screens, it is giving away PS3's, which have been counted in the sales numbers. Moreso, this has had some effect on the momentum of Sony's PS3, however these promotions can only be short lived, until other manufacturer counter sonys plan with price reductions on their LCD screens. Launching their giveaway only 2 months from christmas allowed them to win the Christmas battle in the LCD area, while helping to promote the PS3. If you evaluate the sales volume over the period (NOV/DEC 07) MS clearly sold more units than Sony. Interesting enough i visited a number of retailers in Australia, and found that they were completely sold out of both Wiis and 360's. They did have a sign on the wii stand saying " sorry sold of off Wiis, but plenty of PS3s so thumbs up". talking to some salespeople, they said that they had sold out od 360s before christmas and couldn't get any until the suppliers reopened after new year. Im not saying that the PS3 wont outsell the 360, but if it did, i would expect it will take another 2 years of astonishing numbers, and by then the war is lost. If MS ends the generation with +/- 20% market share compared to Sony, then that is a great victory for MS. Also anyone saying that MS blew any profit they were going to make last year with their $50 price drop is dreaming. The $50 price reduction was factored in to their plan. Also the $1 billion cost for the RROD was written off Mid last year. I think MS will counter strongly this year, with a large competitive game lineup, and a more competitive price. My predictions is that we will be able to see the winners and losers from this generation by the end of 2008. My forecast is as follows   Nintendo Biggest winner, with the largest amount of profit, and largest install base ( as long as they innovate over 2008) MS will turn constant profits in the gaming division from Mid 2008 onwards due to their install base. They will finish the generation with a market share 10-15% lower than Sony. Sony will sell more units than MS by the end of the generation, however would have conceded the most amount of market share to both MS and Nintendo. They will report a small net profit from the PS3 business, but will need to change their plans for the PS4.   I was with you the whole way until i read this. This shouldn't even be up for debate, this utterly impossible and will not happen. Even if the PS3 started profiting like the ps2 for its last 4 years (almost 0 % chance) it would still come short by well over a billion dollars. All of these numbers don't even take into account the fact that PS2 and PSP are offsetting losses from the PS3 this whole time.

I agree, that there is a slim to no chance that the PS3 could make a profit this generation. However my conclusion that the ps3 will return a small profit come from the following points

•     The PS3 will gain extra sales in the area of a BR player, and if in 2-3 years if BR is selling at more than 20% of DVD, then they will see a higher return in investment.

•     The PS3, like the PS2 will have a long production life.

•     They will reach a market size capable of producing adequate royalties to counter some of the previous losses

I would expect some inter-departmental accounting going on, for example, they could be offsetting some of the PS3 losses against the BR department promotional budget, and they would be able to share some of the marketing costs ( everytime they promote BR, the PS3 would get a boost)

Leni said: i think it's in HUGE trouble......sales are decreasing and no new ideas.....it will be defeated by ps3 in 2008..... (my opinion)

Huge trouble would mean that they lose market share from the last generation, which I think could not happen.

For Sony going from 70% market share to around 30-40% (conceded to the wii and 360) would be very bad. Can you clarify what you mean by defeated by the ps3 in 2008 actually means

    * More sales over 08?
    * Larger install base (total sales)?
    * Larger and better software selection?
    * More AAA games?
    * More profit?
    * Better online experience?
    * Better developer relations?

 

it might be in trouble if Microsoft wants it to be but they have the games and the price (compared to the PS3) so i can only see Microsoft hurting themselves now because all they have to do is drop the price by 100$ in the coming months and then just coast till the release their next system but no i dont see it in any major trouble this year