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Forums - Politics Discussion - If I Wanted America to Fail....

richardhutnik said:
Kasz216 said:
richardhutnik said:
killerzX said:
richardhutnik said:
killerzX said:
fordy said:
killerzX said:

 



I believe Paul Krugman, who has a Nobel Prize in economics, 

i stopped reading after that. if you want your arguments to be taken seriously, you cant use an example of someone who nobody takes seriously

As wrong as Krugman is on a number of things, particularly him being Keynsian economically, the fact is that he won a Nobel Prize in economics and knows more about economics than people who post on forums like this.  The reason I brought up Krugman is because someone goes off and speaks how economics has nothing to do with liberalism.  The reality is that someone can be well versed in economics and argue for liberal views politically, as Krugman does.  

How about, if people want their arguments to be taken seriously, they drop this partisan bull on how Liberalism is totally divorced from economics.

Well to be fair.  Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize.  How well did that work out? 

The problem with Krugman is that when argueing for Liberal ideals he seems to forget eveyrthing he talks about economically.

There are a LOT of great arguements for liberalism, the problem lies in people trying to make economic arguements for it... which are pretty awful.

It's very much like the conversation with Prof.  I could come up with a number of good reasons for why you'd fund green jobs and GOOD ways to do it.

However it'd still more likely then not economically be a sink.

 

Obama won the prize for not being Bush.   Unlike the Peace Prize, other disciplines have something behind them.  It is still political, but people get it for usually more sound reasons.  Hayek won it also, so I wouldn't go and discount the prize for economics.

The thing about economics is that it ends up more times than not, justifying one's biases.  One can lie with statistics also, and makie it say a lot of things.  One can argue for the Laffer curve, as a reason to cut taxes, and then forget that it could also be used to justify raising taxes.  Of course, this is presuming one can figure out what the heck the optimal tax rate is.  No one knows at all.

On the "it is good for jobs" front, I find this is a whole pile of B.S at this point.  It seems any politician wanting their pork will argue about job creation.  Industries also argue this, as now, non-renewable resource production needs to be pushed through for jobs.  Yes, you see the coal industry arguing it would create jobs.  Al Gore argues that green creates jobs.  What the heck does any of this really have to do with jobs?  Well, nothing, but it is nice to argue it to get your agenda through.

And then, when you end up running everything through the filter of economics, you end you not figuring out how to deal with externalities.  Economic models only work when you get rid of externalities.  Economics also doesn't inform regarding the end a society would want to have, or the direction it heads.  And then, on a predictive side, look how abysmal things get when they end up either doing centralized planning with interest rates, or Wall Street goes off and develops formulas for quantitivate analysis and ends up leveraging like mad with it.

Then you have economists who can't even agree on base premises on things, and starting points either.  To worship economics like it is some sort of holy device that can inform properly on political ideology is folly.

You missed my point... which was essentially the Hitler "Time man of the Year" arguement.

I'd also argue that economics isn't really about confirming ones biases.  Well no more then any other sceince.  They all CAN be used that way with numbers....

but there are accurate ways to use the numbers and to actually see what has happened everytime you've done something.

 

I will agree though that the main problem with economics is people trying to find a general unifying theory behind it.  Largely because people are the basis of the economy and different peoples and times have different cultures.

Have identical problems in different parts of the world, and try and fix them with the same solution and your results will likely change DRASTICALLY based on the culture of the people.

Some people may react to government spending as a good sign.  Others may take it as a sign of how bad the economy is and wait for things to improve etc.



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I got bored and I couldn't finish it.



Kasz216 said:
richardhutnik said:

Obama won the prize for not being Bush.   Unlike the Peace Prize, other disciplines have something behind them.  It is still political, but people get it for usually more sound reasons.  Hayek won it also, so I wouldn't go and discount the prize for economics.

The thing about economics is that it ends up more times than not, justifying one's biases.  One can lie with statistics also, and makie it say a lot of things.  One can argue for the Laffer curve, as a reason to cut taxes, and then forget that it could also be used to justify raising taxes.  Of course, this is presuming one can figure out what the heck the optimal tax rate is.  No one knows at all.

On the "it is good for jobs" front, I find this is a whole pile of B.S at this point.  It seems any politician wanting their pork will argue about job creation.  Industries also argue this, as now, non-renewable resource production needs to be pushed through for jobs.  Yes, you see the coal industry arguing it would create jobs.  Al Gore argues that green creates jobs.  What the heck does any of this really have to do with jobs?  Well, nothing, but it is nice to argue it to get your agenda through.

And then, when you end up running everything through the filter of economics, you end you not figuring out how to deal with externalities.  Economic models only work when you get rid of externalities.  Economics also doesn't inform regarding the end a society would want to have, or the direction it heads.  And then, on a predictive side, look how abysmal things get when they end up either doing centralized planning with interest rates, or Wall Street goes off and develops formulas for quantitivate analysis and ends up leveraging like mad with it.

Then you have economists who can't even agree on base premises on things, and starting points either.  To worship economics like it is some sort of holy device that can inform properly on political ideology is folly.

You missed my point... which was essentially the Hitler "Time man of the Year" arguement.

I'd also argue that economics isn't really about confirming ones biases.  Well no more then any other sceince.  They all CAN be used that way with numbers....

but there are accurate ways to use the numbers and to actually see what has happened everytime you've done something.

I will agree though that the main problem with economics is people trying to find a general unifying theory behind it.  Largely because people are the basis of the economy and different peoples and times have different cultures.

Have identical problems in different parts of the world, and try and fix them with the same solution and your results will likely change DRASTICALLY based on the culture of the people.

Some people may react to government spending as a good sign.  Others may take it as a sign of how bad the economy is and wait for things to improve etc.

TIme's Man of the Year isn't even in the same category as winning a Nobel Prize, unless you count significant enough impacting events good or bad is the same as being competent in a given area.

Thing about science is you can replicate it via experimentation normally.  You really can't do that with economics.  I would even be hard pressed to call economics a science.  There are claims of laws, which are kinda laws, but not in the same way physics has laws.  And I am not even bringing up wha the Austrian school of economics has to say about economics either.



richardhutnik said:
Kasz216 said:
richardhutnik said:

Obama won the prize for not being Bush.   Unlike the Peace Prize, other disciplines have something behind them.  It is still political, but people get it for usually more sound reasons.  Hayek won it also, so I wouldn't go and discount the prize for economics.

The thing about economics is that it ends up more times than not, justifying one's biases.  One can lie with statistics also, and makie it say a lot of things.  One can argue for the Laffer curve, as a reason to cut taxes, and then forget that it could also be used to justify raising taxes.  Of course, this is presuming one can figure out what the heck the optimal tax rate is.  No one knows at all.

On the "it is good for jobs" front, I find this is a whole pile of B.S at this point.  It seems any politician wanting their pork will argue about job creation.  Industries also argue this, as now, non-renewable resource production needs to be pushed through for jobs.  Yes, you see the coal industry arguing it would create jobs.  Al Gore argues that green creates jobs.  What the heck does any of this really have to do with jobs?  Well, nothing, but it is nice to argue it to get your agenda through.

And then, when you end up running everything through the filter of economics, you end you not figuring out how to deal with externalities.  Economic models only work when you get rid of externalities.  Economics also doesn't inform regarding the end a society would want to have, or the direction it heads.  And then, on a predictive side, look how abysmal things get when they end up either doing centralized planning with interest rates, or Wall Street goes off and develops formulas for quantitivate analysis and ends up leveraging like mad with it.

Then you have economists who can't even agree on base premises on things, and starting points either.  To worship economics like it is some sort of holy device that can inform properly on political ideology is folly.

You missed my point... which was essentially the Hitler "Time man of the Year" arguement.

I'd also argue that economics isn't really about confirming ones biases.  Well no more then any other sceince.  They all CAN be used that way with numbers....

but there are accurate ways to use the numbers and to actually see what has happened everytime you've done something.

I will agree though that the main problem with economics is people trying to find a general unifying theory behind it.  Largely because people are the basis of the economy and different peoples and times have different cultures.

Have identical problems in different parts of the world, and try and fix them with the same solution and your results will likely change DRASTICALLY based on the culture of the people.

Some people may react to government spending as a good sign.  Others may take it as a sign of how bad the economy is and wait for things to improve etc.

TIme's Man of the Year isn't even in the same category as winning a Nobel Prize, unless you count significant enough impacting events good or bad is the same as being competent in a given area.

Thing about science is you can replicate it via experimentation normally.  You really can't do that with economics.  I would even be hard pressed to call economics a science.  There are claims of laws, which are kinda laws, but not in the same way physics has laws.  And I am not even bringing up wha the Austrian school of economics has to say about economics either.

Again, the point is.  You can win an award for being great at something, and then generally embarress yourself.  Like Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize and argueably being even worse then Bush in that regard later on.

As for science, you can replicate it via experimantition sure, there still is the same kind of arguements and complaints though because regular sceince itself has far to many externalities.

Economics is a science.  It's just a social science.  Like Psychology and Sociology.  One that is based on human behavior which is almost impossible to record via numerical data... and as such huge effort is needed in qualitative fields to grant understanding, and to note that in fact not all areas are constant.

The equilvenet would be if physics weren't constant throughout the universe, and on mars the laws of physics were different then they are on earth.

 

For example my Consumer Psychology teacher was fond of this example...

The first McDonalds that opened in russia had HORRIBLE sales.  Nobody could figure out why, they created a huge store with 7 register lanes, and all indications were the russian people really wanted to try McDondalds food.

Sales were awful, they had to let go a ton of people, they were down to one or two... cashiers, then a weird thing happened.  Busisness started BOOMING, it picked up like crazy for no reason.

Research later showed, that buisness picked up, because when they removed the cashiers, those who went to McDonalds regularly had to stand in line longer.

In the USSR the story goes, often times the lines for stuff would be so long you wouldn''t actually know what was being given out at the front.... and likely didn't have time to stand in more then 1 line so what you did was stand in the longest line possible, because that line must have something good in it, which you could then trade for whatever you wanted even if you didn't need it. 

Lines became a sign of quality, where in the US, lines were a sign of shoddy store management and a bad thing.

 

It's INSANE to think that with how different consumer culture is, you could have anymore then a VERY broad view of how the economy works globally.

Instead, economic theory should really be done specifically by region.



Kasz216 said:
richardhutnik said:
Kasz216 said:

Well to be fair.  Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize.  How well did that work out? 

The problem with Krugman is that when argueing for Liberal ideals he seems to forget eveyrthing he talks about economically.

There are a LOT of great arguements for liberalism, the problem lies in people trying to make economic arguements for it... which are pretty awful.

It's very much like the conversation with Prof.  I could come up with a number of good reasons for why you'd fund green jobs and GOOD ways to do it.

However it'd still more likely then not economically be a sink.

 

Obama won the prize for not being Bush.   Unlike the Peace Prize, other disciplines have something behind them.  It is still political, but people get it for usually more sound reasons.  Hayek won it also, so I wouldn't go and discount the prize for economics.

The thing about economics is that it ends up more times than not, justifying one's biases.  One can lie with statistics also, and makie it say a lot of things.  One can argue for the Laffer curve, as a reason to cut taxes, and then forget that it could also be used to justify raising taxes.  Of course, this is presuming one can figure out what the heck the optimal tax rate is.  No one knows at all.

On the "it is good for jobs" front, I find this is a whole pile of B.S at this point.  It seems any politician wanting their pork will argue about job creation.  Industries also argue this, as now, non-renewable resource production needs to be pushed through for jobs.  Yes, you see the coal industry arguing it would create jobs.  Al Gore argues that green creates jobs.  What the heck does any of this really have to do with jobs?  Well, nothing, but it is nice to argue it to get your agenda through.

And then, when you end up running everything through the filter of economics, you end you not figuring out how to deal with externalities.  Economic models only work when you get rid of externalities.  Economics also doesn't inform regarding the end a society would want to have, or the direction it heads.  And then, on a predictive side, look how abysmal things get when they end up either doing centralized planning with interest rates, or Wall Street goes off and develops formulas for quantitivate analysis and ends up leveraging like mad with it.

Then you have economists who can't even agree on base premises on things, and starting points either.  To worship economics like it is some sort of holy device that can inform properly on political ideology is folly.

You missed my point... which was essentially the Hitler "Time man of the Year" arguement.

I'd also argue that economics isn't really about confirming ones biases.  Well no more then any other sceince.  They all CAN be used that way with numbers....

but there are accurate ways to use the numbers and to actually see what has happened everytime you've done something.

 

I will agree though that the main problem with economics is people trying to find a general unifying theory behind it.  Largely because people are the basis of the economy and different peoples and times have different cultures.

Have identical problems in different parts of the world, and try and fix them with the same solution and your results will likely change DRASTICALLY based on the culture of the people.

Some people may react to government spending as a good sign.  Others may take it as a sign of how bad the economy is and wait for things to improve etc.

You may be surprised at how often numerical theories show up where you wouldn't think they do. Research of mine recently has shown that at somewhere above $6000 real GDP per capita, countries become almost compelled to democratize.

The point being that there are often hard numerical sets in there in places you may not expect.



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Mr Khan said:
Kasz216 said:
richardhutnik said:
Kasz216 said:
 

Well to be fair.  Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize.  How well did that work out? 

The problem with Krugman is that when argueing for Liberal ideals he seems to forget eveyrthing he talks about economically.

There are a LOT of great arguements for liberalism, the problem lies in people trying to make economic arguements for it... which are pretty awful.

It's very much like the conversation with Prof.  I could come up with a number of good reasons for why you'd fund green jobs and GOOD ways to do it.

However it'd still more likely then not economically be a sink.

 

Obama won the prize for not being Bush.   Unlike the Peace Prize, other disciplines have something behind them.  It is still political, but people get it for usually more sound reasons.  Hayek won it also, so I wouldn't go and discount the prize for economics.

The thing about economics is that it ends up more times than not, justifying one's biases.  One can lie with statistics also, and makie it say a lot of things.  One can argue for the Laffer curve, as a reason to cut taxes, and then forget that it could also be used to justify raising taxes.  Of course, this is presuming one can figure out what the heck the optimal tax rate is.  No one knows at all.

On the "it is good for jobs" front, I find this is a whole pile of B.S at this point.  It seems any politician wanting their pork will argue about job creation.  Industries also argue this, as now, non-renewable resource production needs to be pushed through for jobs.  Yes, you see the coal industry arguing it would create jobs.  Al Gore argues that green creates jobs.  What the heck does any of this really have to do with jobs?  Well, nothing, but it is nice to argue it to get your agenda through.

And then, when you end up running everything through the filter of economics, you end you not figuring out how to deal with externalities.  Economic models only work when you get rid of externalities.  Economics also doesn't inform regarding the end a society would want to have, or the direction it heads.  And then, on a predictive side, look how abysmal things get when they end up either doing centralized planning with interest rates, or Wall Street goes off and develops formulas for quantitivate analysis and ends up leveraging like mad with it.

Then you have economists who can't even agree on base premises on things, and starting points either.  To worship economics like it is some sort of holy device that can inform properly on political ideology is folly.

You missed my point... which was essentially the Hitler "Time man of the Year" arguement.

I'd also argue that economics isn't really about confirming ones biases.  Well no more then any other sceince.  They all CAN be used that way with numbers....

but there are accurate ways to use the numbers and to actually see what has happened everytime you've done something.

 

I will agree though that the main problem with economics is people trying to find a general unifying theory behind it.  Largely because people are the basis of the economy and different peoples and times have different cultures.

Have identical problems in different parts of the world, and try and fix them with the same solution and your results will likely change DRASTICALLY based on the culture of the people.

Some people may react to government spending as a good sign.  Others may take it as a sign of how bad the economy is and wait for things to improve etc.

You may be surprised at how often numerical theories show up where you wouldn't think they do. Research of mine recently has shown that at somewhere above $6000 real GDP per capita, countries become almost compelled to democratize.

The point being that there are often hard numerical sets in there in places you may not expect.

It doesn't surprise me.  I have a degree in psychology, almost ones in sociology and economics, and a minor in Buisness.

I've generally found that pretty much EVERY social science tends to focus more on math because a lot of social sceinces get looked down opon by the hard sciences like physicists when it comes to research and a alot of researchers feel inferior because of it.



Kasz216 said:

It's INSANE to think that with how different consumer culture is, you could have anymore then a VERY broad view of how the economy works globally.

Instead, economic theory should really be done specifically by region.

Application is critical by region, which would work against global multinationals trying to do business.  The theory part ends up working against it as a theory.  When you go economics as a discipline, what is said is supposed to work everywhere, irregardless of culture or anything else.  The fact that there is cultural impacts playing part does undermine a mathematically focused economics, rather than one based on experimentation and real life practices.  The laws of supply and demand are supposed to work everywhere, and macro and micro should also.  Such should be able to produce highly predictable outcome in results.  Well, the way economics works now, this presumptive folly has a lot of money riding on it, and end result is that you get bad consequences that aren't forecast, due to the hubris of thinking they got it.  Hubris is what caused the mess we have with the financial crisis.



Kasz216 said:

It doesn't surprise me.  I have a degree in psychology, almost ones in sociology and economics, and a minor in Buisness.

I've generally found that pretty much EVERY social science tends to focus more on math because a lot of social sceinces get looked down opon by the hard sciences like physicists when it comes to research and a alot of researchers feel inferior because of it.

The social sciences (for the most part) don't use statistics, they abuse it. Which is quite remarkable because statistics is an unfortunately necessary abomination of mathematics. When using statistics correctly you're always very open about the uncertainty of what you're saying because you can not prove anything is true with statistics; you can only demonstrate that they're likely to be true.

The vast majority of papers published in the social sciences would never be published in a reputable scientific journal because they lack statistical rigour; and in many (probably most) cases this is on purpose because they would never be able to make the claims they're making if they had to approach the problem in a scientific way.



HappySqurriel said:
Kasz216 said:

It doesn't surprise me.  I have a degree in psychology, almost ones in sociology and economics, and a minor in Buisness.

I've generally found that pretty much EVERY social science tends to focus more on math because a lot of social sceinces get looked down opon by the hard sciences like physicists when it comes to research and a alot of researchers feel inferior because of it.

The social sciences (for the most part) don't use statistics, they abuse it. Which is quite remarkable because statistics is an unfortunately necessary abomination of mathematics. When using statistics correctly you're always very open about the uncertainty of what you're saying because you can not prove anything is true with statistics; you can only demonstrate that they're likely to be true.

The vast majority of papers published in the social sciences would never be published in a reputable scientific journal because they lack statistical rigour; and in many (probably most) cases this is on purpose because they would never be able to make the claims they're making if they had to approach the problem in a scientific way.

I wouldn't go so far as to say most.

Though most of the ones that make headlines work that way.



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