By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - Vita 2012 Predicted Sales Chartz 4.08 mil

the_dengle said:
Mmmfishtacos said:
The notion that a console has to be a break out sucesss is a fallacy. It's a slow burner but over the years it will pick up and become a successful product for sony much like the ps3 and the psp before it.

Well, it depends on the state of the company. For Nintendo it was important for the 3DS to be successful immediately to offset the development costs of Wii U. It did okay initially -- better than the Vita has done -- but it wasn't as successful relative to the needs of the company. So for Nintendo, the 3DS's slow start was not an acceptable level of sales, while for Sony, the Vita's even slower start is acceptable.

Sorry, but that makes no sense.

3DS was a failure innitially because it didn't matched its forecasts (they had to be cut).

Vita is a failure because it won't match it's forecasts. 3 times, probably.

There's nothing acceptable in this. It's very simple. There's no personal theories here.



Around the Network

I have a feeling that the way you set up your poll was too optimistic :P



Ongoing bet with think-man: He wins if MH4 releases in any shape or form on PSV in 2013, I win if it doesn't.

the_dengle said:

The more I think about it, the more I think Sony honestly doesn't care how the Vita sells this year. That when they say its sales are "acceptable," they mean it. The Vita is a long-term investment for them. How it sells right out the gate isn't important in the long run. What matters is that the console is on shelves, slowly but steadily building an install base. As production and development costs slowly drop and software sales slowly increase, the Vita will eventually become a steady stream of income for Sony -- probably not this year, maybe not even next year, but soon, and for the rest of its life.

Basically the same strategy they employed with the PS3. It started slow, but it's doing just fine now. Sony isn't looking to dominate the dedicated handheld market; they really aren't competing with Nintendo... at least not yet. They just aim to make a product that will be profitable for them, especially in the PS4's early years when it will likely be a money sink. They want the Vita to counter-balance those losses. Hopefully Vita sales start to pick up next year and this strategy pays off for them.

Think of it like a sports team that isn't even in the running for the playoffs this year giving a huge multi-year contract to a superstar, hoping he/she will help them be contenders next year. They don't care how the player does this year, only in the following years when it counts.

I kinda get that sense too, that they rushed the Vita out a little bit early in order to get it on store shelves at a small profit and to have time to reduce costs as production continues.

The cost on the CPU and GPU are also being helped by the fact that many new mobile devices are using almost the same chip.

Once they get cost down enough, they will drop price (but still sell at a profit) and start marketing heavier as it will be more effective when there is a lower entry price with a first year library on shelves already.

It seems to make sense long term.

Only shame this time around, is that Sony couldn't employ their age old razor model (due to their current liquidity situation): take the hit and sell at a loss to boost that install base quicker, then make it back with software licenses.

All of that said, I personally just want games. Shuhei Yoshida, get more third parties on board!!! (even if it means forking over some cash, or dev kits, or lending talent, or publishing, etc. whatever, just make it happen!).



Chandler said:
I have a feeling that the way you set up your poll was too optimistic :P


In hindsight it does seem so, but remember my projections are based on percentage increases applied to current sales levels. It is less likely that Vita's holiday sales willl only rise by the average percentage, even a small boost holds a really high percentage change. 200K for black friday and 250k before christmas is most likely too low for the Vita.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

But thats still ways off of 5 million units sold^^

 

Also, the vita might get some big names in the next 2 months but its at the same time all the other consoles get their guns out, too. Other games are going out of the way of Halo and CoD and the Vita wants to go head to head with them? Good luck with that.

 

You mean 200k and 250k ww in weeks 50 and 54? I don't think vita can reach those numbers. There might be a significant boost in the US but right now in the EU  the vita gets discounted into oblivion and still can't break the top 100 on amazon. It's cheaper than the 3DS XL for gods sake. Also, the bundles do nothing. LBP bundle sits at place 3.199 on amazon.de games charts. You can get a Vita + retail LBP + 16gb memory card for the same price. Bar some truly earthshattering megaton game like GTA 5 PSV exclusive, I feel like the european market has made it's decision.



Ongoing bet with think-man: He wins if MH4 releases in any shape or form on PSV in 2013, I win if it doesn't.

Around the Network

Updated to October 13th


 4,312,241 Vitas sold by end of 2012!


Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

 

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

LT 2012 2012 LT FY 2012 FY 2012
4,312,241 3,830,668 4,831,427 3,159,335


Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Sorry for the delay, I was away last week and have been rather busy.

Nothing spectacular on the Vita front. Slight declines. Theoretically next week will see a small boost of 9% with the remaining weeks of the year being the big selling times averaging 24% increases leading up to Christmas. From now to 2013 the Vita should sell 1.28 million at this rate. An average of 116k a week.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Updated to October 20th


 4,202,655 Vitas sold by end of 2012!


Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

 

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

LT 2012 2012 LT FY 2012 FY 2012
4,202,655 3,721,082 4,677,330 3,005,238


Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Bam! Insta-update.

Week 45 since launch. Stagnate numbers this week, did not meet the 9% predicted increase. Next week is expected 24% increase. We will see.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

the_dengle said:

The more I think about it, the more I think Sony honestly doesn't care how the Vita sells this year. That when they say its sales are "acceptable," they mean it. The Vita is a long-term investment for them. How it sells right out the gate isn't important in the long run. What matters is that the console is on shelves, slowly but steadily building an install base. As production and development costs slowly drop and software sales slowly increase, the Vita will eventually become a steady stream of income for Sony -- probably not this year, maybe not even next year, but soon, and for the rest of its life.

Basically the same strategy they employed with the PS3. It started slow, but it's doing just fine now. Sony isn't looking to dominate the dedicated handheld market; they really aren't competing with Nintendo... at least not yet. They just aim to make a product that will be profitable for them, especially in the PS4's early years when it will likely be a money sink. They want the Vita to counter-balance those losses. Hopefully Vita sales start to pick up next year and this strategy pays off for them.

Think of it like a sports team that isn't even in the running for the playoffs this year giving a huge multi-year contract to a superstar, hoping he/she will help them be contenders next year. They don't care how the player does this year, only in the following years when it counts.

Whether Sony likes it or not, they are directly competing.

Walk into Gamestop, Ebgames, Best Buy, etc......see the handheld games section. Youll see Vita on display next to 3DS. Nintendi/Sony doesnt choose who they are in competition with, the sellers do. They are both dedicated game handhelds, regardless of their approaches.Kids and parents and adults will look at that shelf, see Vita and 3DS side by side, and they will make a choice.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles.