You usually see two distinct sales curves for consoles, depending on their popularity at large. The first you see is a curve that starts large, gets larger, and then tapers off eventually (close to a classic bell curve, when viewed on a sales-per-week/month/year scale). The second type starts large and tapers off rapidly (like an upside-down checkmark, again on a sales-per-week/month/year scale).

Historically, it's very rare for two consoles to maintain the first type of curve. You usually see happen what happened last generation: one console gets a bell curve of sales, while its competition gets the inverse checkmark. The degree to which this happens can vary (the N64 and PS1 both got bell curves, but the N64's was much smaller; the Genesis started bell curve and went towards a flatline a year or two after the SNES showed up on scene).

In the cases where more than one console got the bell curve chart of sales for a generation, one always dominated considerably over the other. As well, the future of the curves usually isn't apparent until about two years in; before that, the numbers are too close to each other to say for sure. Then too, there's an important matter to consider: Nintendo's breaking out of the old sales model and seeking consumers who don't traditionally buy consoles. That can and likely will skew things considerably.

While I do see where TheSource is coming from with his predictions, I also think that it's a bit too early to be making such predictions with much hope of accuracy. Past trends are indicative, but not always perfect at telling us what's going to happen. This is especially true when a new marketing tactic comes into play; you can be sure the idea of the PS1 selling over 100 million units would've sounded absurd just a console generation prior when the top-selling system managed just under 50 million units sold worldwide.

I think your figures for Wii are way too low Source, since we never saw true Wii demand in 2007, even though certain regions had lulls in demand, like Japans yearly October/november lull, it was never a WW thing, Who knows how much an amply supplied Wii could have sold last year

I mean at 19.72 million in 13.5 months Wii was still banging up against supply constraints in NA and Others

Who knows how much Wii fit could have powered Wii sales to in japan if there had been ample supply? 

I mean with ample Supply we could have been looking at much larger figures last year

You know, sometimes after people put a lot of work into putting this stuff together it would seem like people would understand how coming into a thread and saying "You're wrong, k thx bye~" is extremely rude.

You don't have to agree but FFS at least back up your opinions a bit people. These two line responces to all the effort that went this is disturbing.

To those of you who only have enough time to state that someone is wrong and completely fail to back up your claims let me just leave this:

Well put, Sqrl. If you've nothing to contribute, best not to post in a thread such as this.

@___O_o______

It's pretty easy to argue that all video game consoles are fads. If they were not, then there would not have been any need to go beyond upgrading existing hardware for a given generation the way we do with computers. But that is not what happens. The fact that new hardware comes out every 3 to 8 years to replace existing hardware (and not just new hardware components to replace older ones in existing hardware) is indicative that all consoles in fact fall into the "fad" category. Perhaps longer fads than the likes of Tickle-Me-Elmo, and ones that have longevity in the form of a constant chain of successors, but fads just the same.

 I think Wii might be the first console to buck the normal console cycle changes because of its demographic, unless some company can come in and disrupt the Wii market there is no reason for Nintendo to move forward with a new system in 5-6 years

@sky render

good point.

@Avinash_Tyagi

It's entirely possible that the Wii will maintain and indeed gain momentum. The introduction of a successful new marketing strategy always throws things into the realm of unpredictability (see my comment on the PS1 vs SNES sales). But as I also noted, the first year or two can't really be seen as indicative of the future; the largest sales peaks of almost every single console have occurred in their first two years of their lifespan. The exceptions (PS1, PS2, DS) have all broken free of this paradigm by using a new sales model. But then, a new sales model doesn't always work (as seen with the ill-fated DreamCast, which tried desperately to capture the burgeoning online gaming community and establish itself as an online gaming stronghold).

2007 was unpredictable, and 2008 will likely be too. How much things change will depend on a great many factors, most important for Nintendo being if their "Blue Ocean" strategy really can apply to a home console as well as it did to the handheld market. The evidence suggests it can, but just the same, don't go betting too much on the future; the best-laid plans can fail, even when they've got everything going for them. I'm not saying it's likely, but I'm also not saying it's impossible.

Adenum:  Another messy part of the market is when somebody does go and produce something that directly competes with your new strategy by replicating it and one-upping your effort in the process.  Nintendo actually did that, in a sense, to Sega when the Genesis was biting into its share with the promise of 16-bit graphics over the NES' 8-bit visuals.  And the PS2 most certainly did that to the DreamCast, literally eroding its support base away from it with ultimately false promises of a system that offered everything DC did and then some.  About the only thing keeping MS and Sony from doing that at this point is a mixture of pride and the realization that they could go the way of Atari and Sega that way for releasing too much hardware in too short a time (as happened with the Genesis and its 32x and CD add-ons to be more competitive with the SNES and PS1, respectively).  We shall see what happens...

 See the difference with the Wii is we never saw the peak of year one, I think all we are doing is transferring the peaks into the future due to pent up unfulfilled demand, heck the Wii hasn't even hit a mass market price range of $100-200 where the majority of sales occur and it has yet to launch in all of the territories that its competitors have launched, what we have seen this year is merely a tip of the iceberg

I don't doubt that the Wii has enormous untapped potential, because it does; the insane unmet demand for it has been evidence enough of this. The fact that it's in such high demand at above the standard "bargain" price of $200 is also solid evidence of its power. But (as my adenum to my previous post mentions) this could all get shot to heck if somebody releases a system for a comparative price that has the same control setup and better capabilities, and draws all the attention away from Nintendo ("Why wait for the Wii to be in stock when you can get this new system for just a bit more and get the same features?"). Sony and MS might not, but they're just the known quantities...

Hrmm, my 2008 predictions are pretty close to yours.

I'm about the same on the Wii, PS3, 360, and PS2. The DS I think you overestimated the drop some, and the PSP I think you underestimated the drop some.

Reasoning:

The chances of the DS not blowing away its 2007 Japan sales in 2008 are very low. You are grossly underestimating the effect Dragon Quest IX will have on the sales of the system in that country. By at least 1 million units in 2008 I believe. Other than that, I would say it will fall some in NA and Others, but it will also have a price drop, which should keep it at almost it's 2007 levels.

The PSP sales drop should be much larger than you are predicting. Every major PSP game that would affect the Japanese market is out. The biggest hope for a turn around was Crisis Core. The new Slim has been released, the price has been reduced, and Sony has played their hand out in that country. I would expect Japanese PSP sales in 2008 to be about 500K below your prediction.

Other than those points, in general I agree with your predictions for next year. Good analysis Source. I appreciate all the work you put into it.