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Forums - Nintendo - Anyone else feel that Nintendo has next gen locked up?

 

Who do you predict will win next gen?

Nintendo 276 50.00%
 
Sony 130 23.55%
 
Microsoft 86 15.58%
 
Apple 23 4.17%
 
Sega 36 6.52%
 
Total:551
maverick40 said:
DanneSandin said:
maverick40 said:

What are you basing that off?

I'm basing that on that next gen will sell a total of around 300 million consoles (give or take 30m units ^^), and with that numbers Nintendo CAN'T sell anything less than 40m, since that would be about 10% of the market (13.3% to be more precise I think - I've never been good with math) - and they haven't seen that bad numbers since the GC days... I think N64 had around 20% market share??

The speculation of 300 million consoles sold is based on the fact that since the SNES days (or the 4th console generation) and additional 50 m consoles has been sold for each generation:

4th: ~100m consoles sold

5th:~150m

6th: ~200m

7th: are heading towards ~250m consoles sold.

Therefore I assume the next gen will sell about 300m, and Nintendo should at the very least get 10% of the market share.

EDIT: That's of course if nothing drastic change, like iPads getting used like console, rendering them obsolite...

A solid basing, I must admit!

It is, isn't it?! I'm kinda proud of myself for coming up with that all by myself :D



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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I'm not sure if Nintendo will take the next generation. If they are able to make their tablet controller something beyond the system and have games and features that rival Apple's iPad, then they may be able to take it. I'm not planning on buying the Wii U until Zelda, Smash Bros. and Mario games are out. I was like that with the Wii, except I camped out for mine at launch and had to wait long for those games to play.



kopstudent89 said:
sethnintendo said:


I wasn't even that pumped for the Wii (I waited till Smash was almost about to release before I even got one).   I see a lot more potential in the Wii U than the Wii ever showed/did.  I suppose you weren't impressed by any of the demos during last E3 that showed all the various things you could do with the new controller.  I was never that impressed with the Wiimote besides it having an infrared.

Hey hey, motion control had a much bigger WOW factor. It shows from people's reactions back then compared to how they view the Wii U. I'm not saying I won't buy a Wii U, I'm just saying that it won't have the mass appeal the Wii had in its first 2-3 years. Wii U demos were ok, but this time hardware is really important since the Wii does have a damaged reputation especially during the last couple of years. 

There's a couple of things Nintendo has to do to appeal to the consumer. First, this E3 is major. They have to be able to tell the consmer, Hey you need this. Up to now it isn't the case imo, and that's due to a lot of vagueness about the Wii U (How are the graphics? Can we use two tablets? How can the tablet be a fun and innovative function? ). Second they need to have sustainable sales unlike the Wii. That has to be correleated to 1. How lasting the hardware can be meaning graphics, AI, etc... The Wii failed miserably there and 2. Continuous software releases. Pro 2008 Wii had a weak and very Holiday oriented software lineup. That needs to be solved and it's mainly through 3rd party software, and even Nintendo management. 

Well said... I suppose I should have cited that while infrared impressed me the most (playing FPS with wiimote/nunchuck) there will always be a fun factor associated to the Wiimote (motion controls).  I had a ton of a fun playing Wii Sports with friends, family, and my current girlfriend.  Wii Sports (bowling) helped me get laid.  Nothing like bringing a girl over to your place so she can play with your Wii.  Anyways, all joking aside...  I believe the potential is there to wow the consumer into possibly buying frenzy that the Wii had.  The high demand was crazy during Wii's first few years.   You even had people considering Nintendo was creating the demand by not producing enough consoles.

I was going to go into about how they can't rely on third party game companies, etc.. but it is pretty obvious they need better support than what the Wii had.  One thing I am psyched about... Only having to enter a FC in once...  I like how the word FC still scares most HD console owners.  Some of them still don't realize that the FC system changed to pretty much exactly what Microsoft and Sony offer.



sethnintendo said:
kopstudent89 said:
sethnintendo said:


I wasn't even that pumped for the Wii (I waited till Smash was almost about to release before I even got one).   I see a lot more potential in the Wii U than the Wii ever showed/did.  I suppose you weren't impressed by any of the demos during last E3 that showed all the various things you could do with the new controller.  I was never that impressed with the Wiimote besides it having an infrared.

Hey hey, motion control had a much bigger WOW factor. It shows from people's reactions back then compared to how they view the Wii U. I'm not saying I won't buy a Wii U, I'm just saying that it won't have the mass appeal the Wii had in its first 2-3 years. Wii U demos were ok, but this time hardware is really important since the Wii does have a damaged reputation especially during the last couple of years. 

There's a couple of things Nintendo has to do to appeal to the consumer. First, this E3 is major. They have to be able to tell the consmer, Hey you need this. Up to now it isn't the case imo, and that's due to a lot of vagueness about the Wii U (How are the graphics? Can we use two tablets? How can the tablet be a fun and innovative function? ). Second they need to have sustainable sales unlike the Wii. That has to be correleated to 1. How lasting the hardware can be meaning graphics, AI, etc... The Wii failed miserably there and 2. Continuous software releases. Pro 2008 Wii had a weak and very Holiday oriented software lineup. That needs to be solved and it's mainly through 3rd party software, and even Nintendo management. 

Well said... I suppose I should have cited that while infrared impressed me the most (playing FPS with wiimote/nunchuck) there will always be a fun factor associated to the Wiimote (motion controls).  I had a ton of a fun playing Wii Sports with friends, family, and my current girlfriend.  Wii Sports (bowling) helped me get laid.  Nothing like bringing a girl over to your place so she can play with your Wii.  Anyways, all joking aside...  I believe the potential is there to wow the consumer into possibly buying frenzy that the Wii had.  The high demand was crazy during Wii's first few years.   You even had people considering Nintendo was creating the demand by not producing enough consoles.

I was going to go into about how they can't rely on third party game companies, etc.. but it is pretty obvious they need better support than what the Wii had.  One thing I am psyched about... Only having to enter a FC in once...  I like how the word FC still scares most HD console owners.  Some of them still don't realize that the FC system changed to pretty much exactly what Microsoft and Sony offer.

It does have the potential I agree. What I don't agree is just claiming that the potential has been fulfilled. Still a lot of work needed from Nintendo, and I think the tough 3DS launch will help the Wii U as I think Nintendo won't slack off this time. 

Personally I liked the concept of the tablet, and was impressed with the few games. That said, Nintendo need to clear up what the Hardware capability and software direction will be essential to show the public what it has to offer. E3 will be big!



The best E3 showing of all-time imo is Nintendo's 2006 conference. Nothing from Nintendo themselves, Sony or Microsoft has come anywhere near to being as good. Due to Nintendo's bizarrely effective news blackout we're going to have a ridiculously huge U info explosion from both Nintendo and third parties.



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ryuzaki57 said:
WiseOwl said:
ryuzaki57 said:
WiseOwl said:
ryuzaki57 said:
WiseOwl said:
The damage Sony is doing now to it's image is unprecedented (1). Only time will tell if the PS Vita will ever take off. Sony is still losing money to date. I think that is most serious than most people realize. Only fanboys talk of PS4, while Sony talk 10 year lifespan. Second is not so bad, but first to last place again is unprecedented (2). Xbox360 is lead platform from almost all third party titles and games look almost always better (3). It still have a controller from two decades ago . I can go on and on rumblin but I am going to stop. I should never talk about Sony that way, but when you have fanboys that like to talk careless in front of the world I feel I can do it too. 


A shout out to Ryuzaki57

1. I didn't say Sony wasn't doing mistakes. Nintendo's were just bigger, but they're improving.

2. Surely you are aware that the gap is very different from the precedent gen : PS3 is less than 3 millions behind 360 and sells more, not to mention that PS3 and 360 are closing the gap with Wii fast. The HD twins outsell Wii, whereas Xbox and GameCube put together were still light years away from PS2. I'd also point out that PS3 currently sells more software than Wii, which makes the first/last problem less obvious.

3. You failed to mention that PS3 has more exclusives.


1. I disagree, what you're talking about with 3rd party,  it's nothing new to true Nintendo fanboys that have had a 64 and Gamecube.  But to Sony's fanboys having copied the Wii remote, and being last place is a damage image.  In the beginning using the sixaxis as motion controls, and the trouble Sony is in losing money for years makes it worst.

2. I disagree, the PS3 is not selling enough to close the gap on Nintendo's 30+ million lead fast.  This has nothing to do with the Xbox 360.  PS3 selling more software than the Wii is a lie.

3. That is disputable.

1. True Ninteno fanboys don't make a sustainable audience, we're talking of the average folk here. Besides, Sony communicates little on Move and still places core gaming first. NIntendo did exactly the contrary, but as I said, I have to give them credit for their efforts (Xenoblade, Fire Emblem Awakening). Also, I don't think people remember the Sixaxis or care about the company losing money as long as they're getting the best games. On the contrary, a manufacturer accumulating money while doing nothing to address gamers is bound to rouse anger : that's what Nintendo did. I'm sure true Nintendo fans don't mind, but all the others do.

2. "PS3 selling more software than the Wii is a lie" > Global weekly http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/40986/Global/ and yearly http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2012/Global/ (PS3 currently sells 50% more software than Wii in 2012)


1.  I am what's called the average, and own a Wii360.  That said, if you said that in the Gamecube days I will have to agree.  I also take that as you mean consoles and not Nintendo as a company.  But I going to give it to you as it is.  Nintendo has sold 95+ million Wii's and 150+ million DS worldwide.  I have seen a article that the Wii rules the living room and X360 the beedroom.  The casual gamer is the sustainable audience is why no PS3 1st party game will ever reach sales of Wii-Fit.  Did you look at VGChartz Database,  Wii sports is bananas.  Nintendo rules fourteen of the best selling game ever.  GTA: San Andreas for the PS2 at fifteen, then Nintendo rules the next six to twentyone followed by GTA: Vice City.  So if your talking games, there you have it.  The casual  is the sustainable audience and not the so called hardcore. Try telling them if they not your average folk.  Even Just Dance game selling crazy.

2.  That wasn't always so, and the Wii U is around the corner.

1. I see your point, but you're saying as if casual gamers were all Nintendo fans, which is not true. The problem for Nintendo is indeed to have those people buy WiiU to replace their Wiis. To people for which Wii is their first ever system and who consider gaming as a secondary leisure, what could be the reason to upgrade? Furthermore, the enormous sales of Wii sports and the like also mean Wii players hadn't much else to play on their system. The PS360 library is far richer and more varied. If you check the game DB, you'll see that Wii has le lowest number of million sellers and 500K sellers. Those huge sales actually are a liability for Nintendo as it asphyxiates and eventually deters third party support. By the way, I own a WiiPS3, that doesn't make me love Nintendo or want WiiU.

2. Yes, tables have turned largely in favor of Sony/Microsoft, that's why I reckon WiiU can't win : it has (so far) no assets to compete with PS360. We are speculating on WiiU's chances, that was the point of this discussion...


1. Ninteno & Apple are the casual gamers.  X360 & PS3 are not the casual, and most have no problem stressing that on forums.  That's why Nintendo has been copied off.

2. No, tables have turned slowly in favor of Sony/Microsoft and only selling around 100,000 (at most) a week.  That's why Wii U can't win is your opinion.  You have the right to that so there is nothing to say there.  Nothing for Wii means Wii U  can't win: I am not going to ask how you came of with that.



sethnintendo said:
kopstudent89 said:

Hey hey, motion control had a much bigger WOW factor. It shows from people's reactions back then compared to how they view the Wii U. I'm not saying I won't buy a Wii U, I'm just saying that it won't have the mass appeal the Wii had in its first 2-3 years. Wii U demos were ok, but this time hardware is really important since the Wii does have a damaged reputation especially during the last couple of years. 

There's a couple of things Nintendo has to do to appeal to the consumer. First, this E3 is major. They have to be able to tell the consmer, Hey you need this. Up to now it isn't the case imo, and that's due to a lot of vagueness about the Wii U (How are the graphics? Can we use two tablets? How can the tablet be a fun and innovative function? ). Second they need to have sustainable sales unlike the Wii. That has to be correleated to 1. How lasting the hardware can be meaning graphics, AI, etc... The Wii failed miserably there and 2. Continuous software releases. Pro 2008 Wii had a weak and very Holiday oriented software lineup. That needs to be solved and it's mainly through 3rd party software, and even Nintendo management. 

Well said... I suppose I should have cited that while infrared impressed me the most (playing FPS with wiimote/nunchuck) there will always be a fun factor associated to the Wiimote (motion controls).  I had a ton of a fun playing Wii Sports with friends, family, and my current girlfriend.  Wii Sports (bowling) helped me get laid.  Nothing like bringing a girl over to your place so she can play with your Wii.  Anyways, all joking aside...  I believe the potential is there to wow the consumer into possibly buying frenzy that the Wii had.  The high demand was crazy during Wii's first few years.   You even had people considering Nintendo was creating the demand by not producing enough consoles.

I was going to go into about how they can't rely on third party game companies, etc.. but it is pretty obvious they need better support than what the Wii had.  One thing I am psyched about... Only having to enter a FC in once...  I like how the word FC still scares most HD console owners.  Some of them still don't realize that the FC system changed to pretty much exactly what Microsoft and Sony offer.

I agree almost 100% with both of you guys here. 

It almost doesn't matter what the competition does as far as WiiU doing incredibly well; that's all up to Nintendo and Nintendo alone, IMO.  The potential for WiiU to achieve near PS2 level sales (even with the competition selling good as well) is there.  Their lead year performance, agressive pricing, and most importantly, delivering the right 1st party games in addition to aquiring the vast majority of 3rd party offerings (and sustaining them every year) is what will determine whether or not they capitalize on this potential.

The good news is that Nintendo obviously knows all of this too.  The 3DS launch/pricing debacle, as bad as it was, could indeed be the eye-opener they needed to do WiiU right in all of the key areas.



ryuzaki57 said:
WiseOwl said:


1.  I am what's called the average, and own a Wii360.  That said, if you said that in the Gamecube days I will have to agree.  I also take that as you mean consoles and not Nintendo as a company.  But I going to give it to you as it is.  Nintendo has sold 95+ million Wii's and 150+ million DS worldwide.  I have seen a article that the Wii rules the living room and X360 the beedroom.  The casual gamer is the sustainable audience is why no PS3 1st party game will ever reach sales of Wii-Fit.  Did you look at VGChartz Database,  Wii sports is bananas.  Nintendo rules fourteen of the best selling game ever.  GTA: San Andreas for the PS2 at fifteen, then Nintendo rules the next six to twentyone followed by GTA: Vice City.  So if your talking games, there you have it.  The casual  is the sustainable audience and not the so called hardcore. Try telling them if they not your average folk.  Even Just Dance game selling crazy.

2.  That wasn't always so, and the Wii U is around the corner.

1. I see your point, but you're saying as if casual gamers were all Nintendo fans, which is not true. The problem for Nintendo is indeed to have those people buy WiiU to replace their Wiis. To people for which Wii is their first ever system and who consider gaming as a secondary leisure, what could be the reason to upgrade? Furthermore, the enormous sales of Wii sports and the like also mean Wii players hadn't much else to play on their system. The PS360 library is far richer and more varied. If you check the game DB, you'll see that Wii has le lowest number of million sellers and 500K sellers. Those huge sales actually are a liability for Nintendo as it asphyxiates and eventually deters third party support. By the way, I own a WiiPS3, that doesn't make me love Nintendo or want WiiU.

2. Yes, tables have turned largely in favor of Sony/Microsoft, that's why I reckon WiiU can't win : it has (so far) no assets to compete with PS360. We are speculating on WiiU's chances, that was the point of this discussion...

Any answer other than "third parties brought it upon themselves" is patently false.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

archbrix said:
sethnintendo said:
kopstudent89 said:

Hey hey, motion control had a much bigger WOW factor. It shows from people's reactions back then compared to how they view the Wii U. I'm not saying I won't buy a Wii U, I'm just saying that it won't have the mass appeal the Wii had in its first 2-3 years. Wii U demos were ok, but this time hardware is really important since the Wii does have a damaged reputation especially during the last couple of years. 

There's a couple of things Nintendo has to do to appeal to the consumer. First, this E3 is major. They have to be able to tell the consmer, Hey you need this. Up to now it isn't the case imo, and that's due to a lot of vagueness about the Wii U (How are the graphics? Can we use two tablets? How can the tablet be a fun and innovative function? ). Second they need to have sustainable sales unlike the Wii. That has to be correleated to 1. How lasting the hardware can be meaning graphics, AI, etc... The Wii failed miserably there and 2. Continuous software releases. Pro 2008 Wii had a weak and very Holiday oriented software lineup. That needs to be solved and it's mainly through 3rd party software, and even Nintendo management. 

Well said... I suppose I should have cited that while infrared impressed me the most (playing FPS with wiimote/nunchuck) there will always be a fun factor associated to the Wiimote (motion controls).  I had a ton of a fun playing Wii Sports with friends, family, and my current girlfriend.  Wii Sports (bowling) helped me get laid.  Nothing like bringing a girl over to your place so she can play with your Wii.  Anyways, all joking aside...  I believe the potential is there to wow the consumer into possibly buying frenzy that the Wii had.  The high demand was crazy during Wii's first few years.   You even had people considering Nintendo was creating the demand by not producing enough consoles.

I was going to go into about how they can't rely on third party game companies, etc.. but it is pretty obvious they need better support than what the Wii had.  One thing I am psyched about... Only having to enter a FC in once...  I like how the word FC still scares most HD console owners.  Some of them still don't realize that the FC system changed to pretty much exactly what Microsoft and Sony offer.

I agree almost 100% with both of you guys here. 

It almost doesn't matter what the competition does as far as WiiU doing incredibly well; that's all up to Nintendo and Nintendo alone, IMO.  The potential for WiiU to achieve near PS2 level sales (even with the competition selling good as well) is there.  Their lead year performance, agressive pricing, and most importantly, delivering the right 1st party games in addition to aquiring the vast majority of 3rd party offerings (and sustaining them every year) is what will determine whether or not they capitalize on this potential.

The good news is that Nintendo obviously knows all of this too.  The 3DS launch/pricing debacle, as bad as it was, could indeed be the eye-opener they needed to do WiiU right in all of the key areas.

and...

snowdog 2 days ago

Now that they've finally ditched the TEV Unit from the Gamecube and Wii the U is going to see ports from the PS3 and 360 for the remainder of this gen and supply ports to the PS4 and 720 next gen. The confirmed third party support so far is unbelievable, probably the best selection of launch/launch window titles I've ever seen for a console:

Lego City Stories
Ninja Gaiden 3
Killer Freaks From Outer Space
Assassin's Creed 3
An untitled Battlefield
Batman Arkham City
An untitled Tekken
Dragon Quest X
Dirt
Project C.A.R.S.
Darksiders 2
Aliens Colonial Marines
Metro Last Light
An untitled Rabbids game

I'm also expecting announcements of a Monster Hunter title, Resident Evil 6, Call of Duty, Tiger Woods, FIFA and GTA V at this years E3.

And that's just third party titles (although I think Nintendo are publishing Lego City Stories which would make that second party). You can add to that list Pikmin 3, a 2D Mario title of some description, a 3D Mario title of some description, Wii U Sports, Retro's secret title, Monolith's secret title, Super Smash Bros., Mario Kart, Zelda...the list goes on and on.

 

In terms of software it definitely looks promising, while their competitors are busy keeping the entertainment center locked up in terms of dvd, HBO go, blue ray, Dvr, media player, used games restrictions (rumor), Kinect, Netflix, and the weather forecast.



KeptoKnight said:
archbrix said:
sethnintendo said:
kopstudent89 said:

Hey hey, motion control had a much bigger WOW factor. It shows from people's reactions back then compared to how they view the Wii U. I'm not saying I won't buy a Wii U, I'm just saying that it won't have the mass appeal the Wii had in its first 2-3 years. Wii U demos were ok, but this time hardware is really important since the Wii does have a damaged reputation especially during the last couple of years. 

There's a couple of things Nintendo has to do to appeal to the consumer. First, this E3 is major. They have to be able to tell the consmer, Hey you need this. Up to now it isn't the case imo, and that's due to a lot of vagueness about the Wii U (How are the graphics? Can we use two tablets? How can the tablet be a fun and innovative function? ). Second they need to have sustainable sales unlike the Wii. That has to be correleated to 1. How lasting the hardware can be meaning graphics, AI, etc... The Wii failed miserably there and 2. Continuous software releases. Pro 2008 Wii had a weak and very Holiday oriented software lineup. That needs to be solved and it's mainly through 3rd party software, and even Nintendo management. 

Well said... I suppose I should have cited that while infrared impressed me the most (playing FPS with wiimote/nunchuck) there will always be a fun factor associated to the Wiimote (motion controls).  I had a ton of a fun playing Wii Sports with friends, family, and my current girlfriend.  Wii Sports (bowling) helped me get laid.  Nothing like bringing a girl over to your place so she can play with your Wii.  Anyways, all joking aside...  I believe the potential is there to wow the consumer into possibly buying frenzy that the Wii had.  The high demand was crazy during Wii's first few years.   You even had people considering Nintendo was creating the demand by not producing enough consoles.

I was going to go into about how they can't rely on third party game companies, etc.. but it is pretty obvious they need better support than what the Wii had.  One thing I am psyched about... Only having to enter a FC in once...  I like how the word FC still scares most HD console owners.  Some of them still don't realize that the FC system changed to pretty much exactly what Microsoft and Sony offer.

I agree almost 100% with both of you guys here. 

It almost doesn't matter what the competition does as far as WiiU doing incredibly well; that's all up to Nintendo and Nintendo alone, IMO.  The potential for WiiU to achieve near PS2 level sales (even with the competition selling good as well) is there.  Their lead year performance, agressive pricing, and most importantly, delivering the right 1st party games in addition to aquiring the vast majority of 3rd party offerings (and sustaining them every year) is what will determine whether or not they capitalize on this potential.

The good news is that Nintendo obviously knows all of this too.  The 3DS launch/pricing debacle, as bad as it was, could indeed be the eye-opener they needed to do WiiU right in all of the key areas.

and...

snowdog 2 days ago

Now that they've finally ditched the TEV Unit from the Gamecube and Wii the U is going to see ports from the PS3 and 360 for the remainder of this gen and supply ports to the PS4 and 720 next gen. The confirmed third party support so far is unbelievable, probably the best selection of launch/launch window titles I've ever seen for a console:

Lego City Stories
Ninja Gaiden 3
Killer Freaks From Outer Space
Assassin's Creed 3
An untitled Battlefield
Batman Arkham City
An untitled Tekken
Dragon Quest X
Dirt
Project C.A.R.S.
Darksiders 2
Aliens Colonial Marines
Metro Last Light
An untitled Rabbids game

I'm also expecting announcements of a Monster Hunter title, Resident Evil 6, Call of Duty, Tiger Woods, FIFA and GTA V at this years E3.

And that's just third party titles (although I think Nintendo are publishing Lego City Stories which would make that second party). You can add to that list Pikmin 3, a 2D Mario title of some description, a 3D Mario title of some description, Wii U Sports, Retro's secret title, Monolith's secret title, Super Smash Bros., Mario Kart, Zelda...the list goes on and on.

 

In terms of software it definitely looks promising, while their competitors are busy keeping the entertainment center locked up in terms of dvd, HBO go, blue ray, Dvr, media player, used games restrictions (rumor), Kinect, Netflix, and the weather forecast.

" while their competitors are busy keeping the entertainment center locked up in terms of dvd, HBO go, blue ray, Dvr, media player, used games restrictions (rumor), Kinect, Netflix, and the weather forecast."

yeah... pretty much...

the 360 and ps3 aren't getting most of those games in addition to many other games not announced for wii u... some even months prior... and they certainly aren't getting exclusives or xbl or psn games...

nope the wii u is the only console getting games...