The Vita is about 15 weeks ahead of the DC, so it would need to have an atrocious year all around to cross the line of Sega's last home console.

The PS3 has a notable bump in a few weeks, that was because of a Gundam game. We'll see if the Vita's Ciel no Surge or whatever it is called can keep up with that. I think it was a mighty 45k week for the PS3 back then.

Time for the DOOM chart

Vita officially is selling less then PS3, despite the fact its launch numbers were more than double! It crossed streams with the gamecube too, but it was expected, as the Cube had a fantastic holiday season. Next objective, dreamcast...  sigh, and no games to change this route.

What does the (Fam) and (MC) stand for?

Famistu and Media Create. Two different sales trackers in japan.

There's also the price drop that will happen this year, so the PSV won't cross the DC line anyway. Plus, it should bring the PSV above the PS3 line again.

And yes, I still think that MH won't be announced for the PSV next month. Nintendo can't be dumb enough to have left a loophole in their moneyhatting contract. Nintendo's mission was to push Sony out of the handheld market and Monster Hunter is basically the key to it.

The PS3 didn't sell well in its initial year, many times 10k or less per week. If the Vita averages 10k units per week, it will fall barely behind in the next few months and a price cut to 20,000 yen would bring it into the acceptable range for a handheld. Without games it wouldn't do much, but it also doesn't take much to beat the PS3.

people are buying a last gen psp instead of the 3ds which is next gen and if I'm not mistake extrememly cheap and has monster which is popluar over there. So for these people clearly they don't need to up grade which is bad for Nintendo becasue it says to them even your incredible cheap monster hunter enabled next gen system isn't enough, so ask yourself when they do decide to up grade though which I'm assuming will be a few years from now, do you think the Vita will still be expenseive, do you think it won't have monster hunter plus other big games with a larger library.

also take into account that the Vita is a near generational leap as far as hardware is concerned which only becomes more apperant as the years go and before you go bu bu but ps3 remember the ps3 was 600 dollars at launch and first cut was to 400 a full 100-200 more than it's competitor, vita would be in a similar position if it lauched as 300-400, basically think of it as if the ps3 had launched at 400 dollars like the 360 but in the year leading to it's launch the 360 cut it's price to 250 dollars, what would ps3's first price cut be? Vita's first price cut will put it in the same range as the 3ds and unless they (Nintendo) are willing to make a 80 dollar slash, which is higly unlinky do you really think people will choose a 3ds over a Vita with the Vita also having a years library under it's belt and cost in the same range, maybe, but that will be a MUCH tougher sell for nintendo than it is now. Looking at we're 80 dollars cheaper with better games (becausewelaunchedayearaheadsothatwouldbeagiven) vs were 10-20 dollars cheaper and have mario and pokemon

The same examples you are using -

1. Wii build a big lead in the beginning. PS3 won the late adoptors right now but yet still 4 millions+ behind in Japan. 

2. PSP was a near generational leap as far as hardware is concerned but it's still being outsold by DS in Japan at a comparable price. DSi LL was more expensive than PSP but yet it sold more. so Yes, I really think gamers in Japan would choose 3DS over VITA after VITA gets its price cut. If VITA can not offer the price advantage over 3DS, why would Japanese PSP gamers choose VITA over 3DS while a lot of their favorite franchises (including MoHun) on PSP have moved to 3DS?

I don't see how VITA is in the same situation as PS3 is actually great for Sony especially considering Sony was never market leader for handheld in Japan.