Update (Mar 02)

Ladder Rankings updated

Daily Numbers (Mar 02)

Look under the Today's Change column for the variations.                                                 ^^^^^^^^^^

Brief Summary:

Nintendo, Konamy down big time 3%, 2%

AAPL, TTWO, ACTI, GOOG mostly flat.

MSFT, SNE down less than 1%.

EA up less than 1%.

Zynga up 1.45%.

You have really nothing to worry about. They are almost at their all-time low, so it can only go up. Plus Kown posted lately that the Yen to Euro/Dollar situation is getting better, so that's in favor of NTDOY, ultimately.

You are already risking it. It's at a pretty low value considering its all-time value record. The worst that can happen at this point is that you lose say half of what you put in (not a big deal if you are risking a small sum, and possibly a typical thing in the risky stock business).

But the BEST that can happen is mostly quadrupling your stock value. Why in the world would you fold at 3 dollars over? That would be a dumb move.

I hate to break the party but the odds of Nintendo quadrupling are about the same than the odds of winning powerball...

Sure the stock is low and has room to go up, but it's not going to go that high, if it goes up at all...

Right now Nintendo stock is still priced like a company expected to make 1.5 billion$ or so /year ( market cap is 19 billion). So they are going to have to increase earnings significantly..

Ah good old Warren. And I do mean OLD, but that's in a good way.
But from this article,

http://seekingalpha.com/article/315119-warren-buffett-s-investment-in-bank-of-america-is-doing-just-fine

I'm not too sure how wise following him here is. Unless you have 5 billion as well Ail :P


Also about nintendo. The stock probably won't go anywhere much until Christmas. Unless the Wii U amazes. It's going to take a while to get 3ds and wii U in full swing. Although they do have about 10 billionUSD in cash. And their market cap is about the same as the book value if I'm reading the statements right. So if Wii U is a success and 3DS maintains current momentum, 40-50 per share wouldnt surprise me. Of course that would probably take till at least Christams 2013 if it does happen.

By market cap, you mean that's the most they've ever made, or that's the cap for all companies in the NASDAQ. Also, you're talking about yearly profit right?

I think, on a normal year, Nintendo makes about 1, 1.5 billion. On its best year, it made 6 billion I think (I'll have to go pull out those charts).

You may be right, but Nintendo also has the potential for selling massive software this next gen as well thanks to Blue Ocean strategy (the extended audience, which they are still winner at). Mobile and social space may rob marketshare, but Nintendo was still solid in 2008, 2009 where smart tablets were just taking off. Sure, the marketshare is larget now, but they were still strong in 2008,09 when Nintendo had its most solid 2 years profit-wise.

iPhone sales history:

Incredible numbers though... Also farmville came out in June 09 but didn't offset Nintendo's Q4 '09 sales too much.

About Nintendo stock, what I was trying to say, and I think you agree with me, the stock can't really go down so much. Here is the NTDOY all-time graph.

Here are some of the stats I got using the google analytics mouse-over tool.

All-time low: 8.85 (June '03),      {0.49 x today}

All-time High: 76.87 (Winter '07),    {4.25 x today}

Today: 18.07

Like you agree, at worst he experiences a halving of value. At best, a quadrupling. In all likelyhood, Shares will reach winter '08 levels, i.e. 48.00 at its peak. That's 2.66 x today, almost a tripling of value. Why would he stop after gaining 3$, and what would 3$ represent?

How do you win with that kind of a strategy, that has so little to do with the lifetime curve? It must be some kind of short-term calculation he's making, but otherwise it's most likely because, like many of us, he needs the money and it has little to do with the trends.

Well the banking sector is doing better but still trading at historical low.

It's hard to predict short term move but medium term it's reasonnable to expect bank of America to climb back from the hole it is.

I don't think it will ever regain pre 2008 value but there is a lot of room in between...

As for that article, it shows how foolish some people are to question Buffet.

He's already in the green in his warrants and stands to make one of the best financial deal of the decade on them..( 700 millions warrant at 7.14, the stock is already at 8.13, if he waits a few years to exercise them I'm willing to bet his final profit on the the warrants alone will be around 10 billion $ ..)

PS : since that article the stock is up over 50%. But is still far from the 14.70$/share it was worth one year ago.. Not even going to mention the 50$/share it was before the 2008 crisis as that is unrealistic valuation with the new financial regulations coming in. But a return to the 15$/share price of 2010 seems reasonnable

And anyway with my current stake, whichever way the stock goes my overall portfollio won't be affected that much ( I have like 1.7% of my holdings in BAC), I'm in to monitor the stock more easilly, I will most likely increase my investment when I see an opportunity...

By market cap I market capitalization, the current value of the company ( price of the stock time number of stocks = 19 billion $ ).

What you it would costs you to buy Nintendo if you purchased every stock in circulation at the current price...

Oh, ok thanks. Thought you meant cap as in upper limit.

So that's basically what the company is worth.

Interested in how you got these estimates, is there a public ranking chart of sorts online?

Standard accepted P/E are around 13-15 so I came up with that earnings numbers by dividing the market cap by 13.

You can find the market cap of most companies on any financial web site, with a grain of salt, most of the info is not up to date for foreign companie with low trade volume in the US..( because to get accurate you have to actually use the stock price on the Nikkei and factor the yen/dollar change)...

Fidelity has Nintendo at 19.1 billion$, CNNMoney at 20.5 billion$...

Fidelity has very bearish rating on Nintendo too...( Star Mine rating of 0.1 , it can't be worse ..). Although to be honest Nintendo is not a company on which they have a lot of coverage due to the low volume of US trade...