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happydolphin on 02 March 2012
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Ail said:
happydolphin said:
spurgeonryan said:
Either way, if the rumors hold and it stays at 299.99 in America for the Wii U and less in Japan they are not going to trust any currency for a while. I see investors have noticed that the 3DS is not going away and there is a bit more life in the Wii and DS(pokemon) this year so they have less fear now. Also is it possible for the Wii U to do bad at this point?

I am not worried, but I will sell at 3 dollars over where I bought my stock at. I am too poor to risk moneys like that.

You are already risking it. It's at a pretty low value considering its all-time value record. The worst that can happen at this point is that you lose say half of what you put in (not a big deal if you are risking a small sum, and possibly a typical thing in the risky stock business).

But the BEST that can happen is mostly quadrupling your stock value. Why in the world would you fold at 3 dollars over? That would be a dumb move.

I hate to break the party but the odds of Nintendo quadrupling are about the same than the odds of winning powerball...

Sure the stock is low and has room to go up, but it's not going to go that high, if it goes up at all...

Right now Nintendo stock is still priced like a company expected to make 1.5 billion$ or so /year ( market cap is 19 billion). So they are going to have to increase earnings significantly..

By market cap, you mean that's the most they've ever made, or that's the cap for all companies in the NASDAQ. Also, you're talking about yearly profit right?

I think, on a normal year, Nintendo makes about 1, 1.5 billion. On its best year, it made 6 billion I think (I'll have to go pull out those charts).

You may be right, but Nintendo also has the potential for selling massive software this next gen as well thanks to Blue Ocean strategy (the extended audience, which they are still winner at). Mobile and social space may rob marketshare, but Nintendo was still solid in 2008, 2009 where smart tablets were just taking off. Sure, the marketshare is larget now, but they were still strong in 2008,09 when Nintendo had its most solid 2 years profit-wise.

iPhone sales history:

Incredible numbers though... Also farmville came out in June 09 but didn't offset Nintendo's Q4 '09 sales too much.

About Nintendo stock, what I was trying to say, and I think you agree with me, the stock can't really go down so much. Here is the NTDOY all-time graph.

Here are some of the stats I got using the google analytics mouse-over tool.

All-time low: 8.85 (June '03),      {0.49 x today}

All-time High: 76.87 (Winter '07),    {4.25 x today}

Today: 18.07

Like you agree, at worst he experiences a halving of value. At best, a quadrupling. In all likelyhood, Shares will reach winter '08 levels, i.e. 48.00 at its peak. That's 2.66 x today, almost a tripling of value. Why would he stop after gaining 3$, and what would 3$ represent?

How do you win with that kind of a strategy, that has so little to do with the lifetime curve? It must be some kind of short-term calculation he's making, but otherwise it's most likely because, like many of us, he needs the money and it has little to do with the trends.