We're all just geeks here, no-one here knows much about the fitness industry or how much this game will be accepted in the US or Europe, only time will tell, every prediction is a stab in the dark, I fully expect 5 million by years end, and 8 million LTD at least.

Who knows really.

i just showed my wife a video from that site of some of the wii fit exercises

she asked when it comes out cause she wants one

doesn't matter if the ssbb buyers want a wii fit if there is someone else in their household that does

 Go for a two hour jog at a reasonable pace, come back and tell me if you sweat

Wii fit like Wii play and Wii sports will occupy a spot in the top 50 for the entirety of the Wii's lifespan, and will usually be in the top 20, at $70 it is only $10 more than Wii play a very good price, most people will get a Wii, Wii play and Wii fit

holiday period doesn't matter because it is supply constrained

even if demand is lower now than during holidays, we don't know that it is below supply at this point

example: demand coulda been 10mil during holidays and is now only 2mil...well it still sells out at current supply rates!

Rock Band and Guitar Hero.

-Higher Price than standard games due to peripherals
-Not actually playing real instruments (RB Drums maybe)
-Sell like mad anyway

I'm not claiming Wii Fit will sell 15 million, but saying it'll flop because it's not "real" exercise or it's $20 higher doesn't hold.

5-7 million.

No, I'm not comparing the Wii to the high end stuff, just saying that I don't believe the price point is as big a barrier as it might appear at first blush. People buy all sorts of crap they don't need or use beyond one week. Somebody walks into a Sears every single day and finances a $1,000 NordicTrack which won't get used for more than the first few weeks after it's brought home. Look in any average American's garage and/or basement, you could open a sporting goods store with the crap every schmoe has purchased as the building blocks to a better, healthier lifestyle, until a new season of "24" came on and everybody got 'too busy' again.

As I said before, I think a lot of the arguments about whether or not Wii Fit constitutes a "real" workout or whether or not it'll get used by the majority beyond a week or two weeks or a month are misplaced. All that nonsense is irrelevent. All that matters in discussing its sales is whether or not it is a large enough perceived value to sell.

The fitness-tracking component, the inherent motivational element, and the space saving size of the board, IMHO, are enough to drive this one home. Oh, and the fact it says "Wii" on it is pretty OK too! :p

Now, in my completely unscientific and only partly hands-on opinion, I will leap to the conclusion that a Wii + Wii Sports + Wii Fit will prove more effective at achieving a desirable level of real, tangible physical fitness than a DS + Brain Age will make a person smarter and sharper intellectually, or a DS + Nintendogs will steer a person towards being a better pet handler, breeder, and trainer, even if Wii Fit and the Balance Board prove to be nothing more than digital placebos.

Don't underestimate the power of the Average American Familiy's disposable income and ability to invest heavily in things they'll likely never use.

Holy, this thread is still going? Out of all the threads I've created, the one I think is most disposable has the longest life. The irony.

On Topic - Dryden I agree with you 100%.

I do think WiiFit will be a fad, but that's still fantastic sales for 3-5 years before the fad bursts, and I don't think Nintendo will care after the billions it rakes in. Besides, once people have a Wii, they'll probably look to get something else for it. I think DDR could really benefit as a secondary market for the WiiFit crowd.

 Using holiday sales numbers will make any product look good. But even in the best month of the year, in a country where people go nuts over such things; 2nd week sales were only about half of 1st week sales, and 4th week sales have been roughly half that again. This is one of the reasons I think it won't do well, especially in slower months. And the price is another issue, the price is the Wii's best card on hand any way you spin it, and purchasing a very expensive game (it is expensive) for a cheap console makes little sense even to casuals.

I'm not entirely opposed to the concept of WiiFit, but aside from push-up's, I haven't seen a single exercise I'd recommend for getting into any kind of shape. Someone mentioned jogging; tell you what: make an obese American jog on his hard living room floor for a few weeks, then send him to a physical therapist and a chiropractor and have them tell you how good that idea was. Trust me, I'm a heavy man myself (nearing 125 kilo's) and I get pains in my body if I run on hard surfaces. I'd not recommend jogging on any hard surface actually, regardless of weight.

So, like I said; the idea itself is good, but this will be no revolution neither for the fitness nor gaming bussiness. Feel free to think so however, but I won't. 

 I think what we'd like, is for people to have both feet on their ground and keep their head out of the sky when making predictions no matter how firmly they believe in a product. I'm sure you wish the same, you seem like a level-headed chap!

 You do realize it sold out every shipment  Mummel, meaning the only reason it declined in sales ever was because there was no more Wii fit's to sell

I'll let you in on a secret...companies can't sell what they don't have