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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD January: X360 #1 270k, 49% share, PS3 > Wii = 281k Combined

Petrae on 11 February 2012
amaral_slb said:

I sure hope you are right and the Vita had something to do with it, that beauty deserves commercial success, because if that happens that think will have one of the best library of games ever. Potential is huge, but the Playstation brand has lost so much power in US that I think the Vita has a HUGE mountain to climb.

As for the other points, they make sense, we just need Feb numbers to see if this is a trend, or just a one year kind of thing (weaker Jan)


Vita sure is a sweet device. Had a chance to spend time with it during E3 last year and then again with a JP model last month. If you have the price of admission-- and if Sony stays the course with it-- Vita has a ton of upside. Problem is going to be getting more than early adopters / Sony core audiences to part with $250+, especially with Nintendo dangling a less-expensive carrot in front of everyone. 

Fantastic point about the PlayStation brand, too, here in the US. It's Microsoft's game right now, with Nintendo hanging around via 3DS and Sony just kind of treading water. People don't "play PlayStation" anymore. They play "Xbox". That's the brand association that mass market has right now. It doesn't help that Sony killed the branding by going SEN from PSN, plus minimizing the brand with the Vita. It seems as though Sony is conceding that PlayStation is a tired, struggling brand. 



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DirtyP2002 on 11 February 2012
thismeintiel said:
DirtyP2002 said:
thismeintiel said:
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
ioi said:
drkohler said:
D-Joe said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/40227/Analyst_questions_validity_of_unusual_January_NPD_results.php
The group confirmed to Gamasutra, however, that Wal-Mart POS data was not included in the January report, and thus did not affect this month's software sales figures.

so NPD starting include Wal-Mart this month?

NPD has always estimated Wal-mart numbers (with historic data, other means, and current trends). Still, the numbers are within 5% of exact sales, don't expect any magic additions to them.

I've heard of cases where NPD have a game at 50k while the publisher has confirmed sell-through of 200k so their tracking really isn't as accurate (especially at the lower end) as people like to think. Clearly the addition of Walmart will help this considerably.

On topic, I also find these figures very hard to digest - the market is down surely but both for December and January NPD have showed data that is 40%+ down on previous years which makes little sense when compared to other markets like the UK and when compared to all of the months prior to December. It does come across as though NPD have changed their tracking methods or are making adjustments for something. For Pachter to publicly question it then that should certainly raise some serious doubts.

We certainly have no intention of making and adjustments to our data for January.

Its all a bit mysterious but the end of March numbers from the manufacturers will show for sure what the real situiation is.  If NPD are to be believed then shipments will be next to nothing.  Supply would be more than enough already.


this. If MS ships more than 600k this quarter, all the "overshipped!!" arguements were just wrong

Don't you think that's a low number, especially considering MS usually ships ~1.5-1.7 million in Q1?  Now, if they ship less than 1.5, then you can say they "overshipped" slightly in Q4 2011.  Of course, I think the difference will be minimal.  Retailers may have misjudged demand a little in Q4, but the big difference in shipments/sales mostly comes from having to ship an extra ~1 million or so units in Q1 2011 to make up for low stock at the end of 2010.

gap between PS3 and Xbox 360 in 2011: 800k in Xbox 360s favour.
According to you and some other people here, PS3 still won 2011. So we need at least 800k less in Q1 2012 (calender year!) than the usual shipments. That would bring the number down to 700k - 900k. With such bad sales in NA according to NPD we are massively down compared to previous Q1 (calender year!). 600k is an optimistic guess if the overshipping and PS3 winning 2011 shall be right. 400k - 500k would be more reasonable guess.

You're missing the point.  Even if shipments for Q1 are the same as normal levels, ~1.5 million, it means nothing.  The 360 usually has ~2 million on shelves/in the channel at the end of the year (except for 2010, where it had low supply in the channels), which the 360 did have at the end of 2011.  The reason the 360 outshipped the PS3 in 2011, but didn't outsell it, is because MS had to make up for ~1-1.3 million shipments that didn't go out in 2010 (they went out Q1 2011, instead) to get them to the normal ~2 million gap between shipped/sold.

How can MS overship (build up stock) in Q4 2011 without affecting Q1 2012?! How can they build up stock and sell the regular amount in the next 3 months with such a market decrease according to NPD? Just not possible. Worldwide retailers aren't forced to buy loads of Xbox 360s.

Anyway, the reasons why they won 2011 are not relevant at all. Look at it this way: They lost 2010 because of undershipping according to your logic. Every manufacturer had shortages this gen, so this is no excuse. Sorry mate.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

shanbcn on 11 February 2012

Thanks Petrae for finally providing enough clues to gues correct PS3 and Wii numbers.



thismeintiel on 11 February 2012
DirtyP2002 said:

How can MS overship (build up stock) in Q4 2011 without affecting Q1 2012?! How can they build up stock and sell the regular amount in the next 3 months with such a market decrease according to NPD? Just not possible. Worldwide retailers aren't forced to buy loads of Xbox 360s.

Anyway, the reasons why they won 2011 are not relevant at all. Look at it this way: They lost 2010 because of undershipping according to your logic. Every manufacturer had shortages this gen, so this is no excuse. Sorry mate.

It would affect Q1 2012 if they overshipped in Q4 2011.  However, if they did overship, I don't think it was by much.  It seems MS mostly shipped its holiday units during Q4, while PS3's were a little more divided between Q3 and Q4.  Either way, the shortage in 2010 led to inflated shipment numbers for 2011, which is why VGC is not going to make any large adjustments to their numbers (keeping the PS3 ahead). 

As for 2010, they lost because they didn't sell more units to consumers than the PS3.  The same goes for 2011.  Again, these battles have been about sales to consumer, not shipments to stores.



 

Darth Tigris on 12 February 2012
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
ioi said:
drkohler said:
D-Joe said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/40227/Analyst_questions_validity_of_unusual_January_NPD_results.php
The group confirmed to Gamasutra, however, that Wal-Mart POS data was not included in the January report, and thus did not affect this month's software sales figures.

so NPD starting include Wal-Mart this month?

NPD has always estimated Wal-mart numbers (with historic data, other means, and current trends). Still, the numbers are within 5% of exact sales, don't expect any magic additions to them.

I've heard of cases where NPD have a game at 50k while the publisher has confirmed sell-through of 200k so their tracking really isn't as accurate (especially at the lower end) as people like to think. Clearly the addition of Walmart will help this considerably.

On topic, I also find these figures very hard to digest - the market is down surely but both for December and January NPD have showed data that is 40%+ down on previous years which makes little sense when compared to other markets like the UK and when compared to all of the months prior to December. It does come across as though NPD have changed their tracking methods or are making adjustments for something. For Pachter to publicly question it then that should certainly raise some serious doubts.

We certainly have no intention of making and adjustments to our data for January.

Its all a bit mysterious but the end of March numbers from the manufacturers will show for sure what the real situiation is.  If NPD are to be believed then shipments will be next to nothing.  Supply would be more than enough already.


this. If MS ships more than 600k this quarter, all the "overshipped!!" arguements were just wrong

But they'll continue.  They'll always continue.  People are creating their own truth ...



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DirtyP2002 on 12 February 2012
Darth Tigris said:
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
ioi said:
drkohler said:
D-Joe said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/40227/Analyst_questions_validity_of_unusual_January_NPD_results.php
The group confirmed to Gamasutra, however, that Wal-Mart POS data was not included in the January report, and thus did not affect this month's software sales figures.

so NPD starting include Wal-Mart this month?

NPD has always estimated Wal-mart numbers (with historic data, other means, and current trends). Still, the numbers are within 5% of exact sales, don't expect any magic additions to them.

I've heard of cases where NPD have a game at 50k while the publisher has confirmed sell-through of 200k so their tracking really isn't as accurate (especially at the lower end) as people like to think. Clearly the addition of Walmart will help this considerably.

On topic, I also find these figures very hard to digest - the market is down surely but both for December and January NPD have showed data that is 40%+ down on previous years which makes little sense when compared to other markets like the UK and when compared to all of the months prior to December. It does come across as though NPD have changed their tracking methods or are making adjustments for something. For Pachter to publicly question it then that should certainly raise some serious doubts.

We certainly have no intention of making and adjustments to our data for January.

Its all a bit mysterious but the end of March numbers from the manufacturers will show for sure what the real situiation is.  If NPD are to be believed then shipments will be next to nothing.  Supply would be more than enough already.


this. If MS ships more than 600k this quarter, all the "overshipped!!" arguements were just wrong

But they'll continue.  They'll always continue.  People are creating their own truth ...

I know. It is just hard to believe that basically the whole world accepts the fact that 360 outsold PS3 in 2011. But 3-4 people here on VGC keep on fighting a lost battle.

I like VGC I really do, but we have to be honest that the quality of the numbers varies.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

SOLIDSNAKE08 on 12 February 2012

some people need to let go and just give it to 360. ps3 has been outselling it for years on end now! give microsoft credit. look all the work they had to do with the 360 to finally make it outsell the competition.



cookingyourmama on 12 February 2012
DirtyP2002 said:
Darth Tigris said:
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
ioi said:
drkohler said:
D-Joe said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/40227/Analyst_questions_validity_of_unusual_January_NPD_results.php
The group confirmed to Gamasutra, however, that Wal-Mart POS data was not included in the January report, and thus did not affect this month's software sales figures.

so NPD starting include Wal-Mart this month?

NPD has always estimated Wal-mart numbers (with historic data, other means, and current trends). Still, the numbers are within 5% of exact sales, don't expect any magic additions to them.

I've heard of cases where NPD have a game at 50k while the publisher has confirmed sell-through of 200k so their tracking really isn't as accurate (especially at the lower end) as people like to think. Clearly the addition of Walmart will help this considerably.

On topic, I also find these figures very hard to digest - the market is down surely but both for December and January NPD have showed data that is 40%+ down on previous years which makes little sense when compared to other markets like the UK and when compared to all of the months prior to December. It does come across as though NPD have changed their tracking methods or are making adjustments for something. For Pachter to publicly question it then that should certainly raise some serious doubts.

We certainly have no intention of making and adjustments to our data for January.

Its all a bit mysterious but the end of March numbers from the manufacturers will show for sure what the real situiation is.  If NPD are to be believed then shipments will be next to nothing.  Supply would be more than enough already.


this. If MS ships more than 600k this quarter, all the "overshipped!!" arguements were just wrong

But they'll continue.  They'll always continue.  People are creating their own truth ...

I know. It is just hard to believe that basically the whole world accepts the fact that 360 outsold PS3 in 2011. But 3-4 people here on VGC keep on fighting a lost battle.

I like VGC I really do, but we have to be honest that the quality of the numbers varies.

Nope, the 'whole world' accepts 360 outshipped the ps3 in 2011 not that it outsold it. Jesus christ this is getting really sad now, thread after thread on this site, Mircosoft fans come in and try and state as fact that the 360 outsold the ps3 when all the data that has been clearly laid out in black and white shows that Microsoft overshipped in 2011, and to top it off the 360 fans try and claim that this site is biased towards sony and the forums are dominated by sony fanboys and that it's everybody else who is deluded. *rollseyes*



DirtyP2002 on 12 February 2012
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:
Darth Tigris said:
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
ioi said:
drkohler said:
D-Joe said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/40227/Analyst_questions_validity_of_unusual_January_NPD_results.php
The group confirmed to Gamasutra, however, that Wal-Mart POS data was not included in the January report, and thus did not affect this month's software sales figures.

so NPD starting include Wal-Mart this month?

NPD has always estimated Wal-mart numbers (with historic data, other means, and current trends). Still, the numbers are within 5% of exact sales, don't expect any magic additions to them.

I've heard of cases where NPD have a game at 50k while the publisher has confirmed sell-through of 200k so their tracking really isn't as accurate (especially at the lower end) as people like to think. Clearly the addition of Walmart will help this considerably.

On topic, I also find these figures very hard to digest - the market is down surely but both for December and January NPD have showed data that is 40%+ down on previous years which makes little sense when compared to other markets like the UK and when compared to all of the months prior to December. It does come across as though NPD have changed their tracking methods or are making adjustments for something. For Pachter to publicly question it then that should certainly raise some serious doubts.

We certainly have no intention of making and adjustments to our data for January.

Its all a bit mysterious but the end of March numbers from the manufacturers will show for sure what the real situiation is.  If NPD are to be believed then shipments will be next to nothing.  Supply would be more than enough already.


this. If MS ships more than 600k this quarter, all the "overshipped!!" arguements were just wrong

But they'll continue.  They'll always continue.  People are creating their own truth ...

I know. It is just hard to believe that basically the whole world accepts the fact that 360 outsold PS3 in 2011. But 3-4 people here on VGC keep on fighting a lost battle.

I like VGC I really do, but we have to be honest that the quality of the numbers varies.

Nope, the 'whole world' accepts 360 outshipped the ps3 in 2011 not that it outsold it. Jesus christ this is getting really sad now, thread after thread on this site, Mircosoft fans come in and try and state as fact that the 360 outsold the ps3 when all the data that has been clearly laid out in black and white shows that Microsoft overshipped in 2011, and to top it off the 360 fans try and claim that this site is biased towards sony and the forums are dominated by sony fanboys and that it's everybody else who is deluded. *rollseyes*

Every unit shipped is a unit sold. End of story.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

cookingyourmama on 12 February 2012
DirtyP2002 said:
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:
Darth Tigris said:
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
ioi said:
drkohler said:
D-Joe said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/40227/Analyst_questions_validity_of_unusual_January_NPD_results.php
The group confirmed to Gamasutra, however, that Wal-Mart POS data was not included in the January report, and thus did not affect this month's software sales figures.

so NPD starting include Wal-Mart this month?

NPD has always estimated Wal-mart numbers (with historic data, other means, and current trends). Still, the numbers are within 5% of exact sales, don't expect any magic additions to them.

I've heard of cases where NPD have a game at 50k while the publisher has confirmed sell-through of 200k so their tracking really isn't as accurate (especially at the lower end) as people like to think. Clearly the addition of Walmart will help this considerably.

On topic, I also find these figures very hard to digest - the market is down surely but both for December and January NPD have showed data that is 40%+ down on previous years which makes little sense when compared to other markets like the UK and when compared to all of the months prior to December. It does come across as though NPD have changed their tracking methods or are making adjustments for something. For Pachter to publicly question it then that should certainly raise some serious doubts.

We certainly have no intention of making and adjustments to our data for January.

Its all a bit mysterious but the end of March numbers from the manufacturers will show for sure what the real situiation is.  If NPD are to be believed then shipments will be next to nothing.  Supply would be more than enough already.


this. If MS ships more than 600k this quarter, all the "overshipped!!" arguements were just wrong

But they'll continue.  They'll always continue.  People are creating their own truth ...

I know. It is just hard to believe that basically the whole world accepts the fact that 360 outsold PS3 in 2011. But 3-4 people here on VGC keep on fighting a lost battle.

I like VGC I really do, but we have to be honest that the quality of the numbers varies.

Nope, the 'whole world' accepts 360 outshipped the ps3 in 2011 not that it outsold it. Jesus christ this is getting really sad now, thread after thread on this site, Mircosoft fans come in and try and state as fact that the 360 outsold the ps3 when all the data that has been clearly laid out in black and white shows that Microsoft overshipped in 2011, and to top it off the 360 fans try and claim that this site is biased towards sony and the forums are dominated by sony fanboys and that it's everybody else who is deluded. *rollseyes*

Every unit shipped is a unit sold. End of story.

Every unit shipped is a unit sold to retailers not consumers. End of story.