thismeintiel said:
DirtyP2002 said:
thismeintiel said:
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
ioi said:
drkohler said:
NPD has always estimated Wal-mart numbers (with historic data, other means, and current trends). Still, the numbers are within 5% of exact sales, don't expect any magic additions to them.
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I've heard of cases where NPD have a game at 50k while the publisher has confirmed sell-through of 200k so their tracking really isn't as accurate (especially at the lower end) as people like to think. Clearly the addition of Walmart will help this considerably.
On topic, I also find these figures very hard to digest - the market is down surely but both for December and January NPD have showed data that is 40%+ down on previous years which makes little sense when compared to other markets like the UK and when compared to all of the months prior to December. It does come across as though NPD have changed their tracking methods or are making adjustments for something. For Pachter to publicly question it then that should certainly raise some serious doubts.
We certainly have no intention of making and adjustments to our data for January.
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Its all a bit mysterious but the end of March numbers from the manufacturers will show for sure what the real situiation is. If NPD are to be believed then shipments will be next to nothing. Supply would be more than enough already.
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this. If MS ships more than 600k this quarter, all the "overshipped!!" arguements were just wrong
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Don't you think that's a low number, especially considering MS usually ships ~1.5-1.7 million in Q1? Now, if they ship less than 1.5, then you can say they "overshipped" slightly in Q4 2011. Of course, I think the difference will be minimal. Retailers may have misjudged demand a little in Q4, but the big difference in shipments/sales mostly comes from having to ship an extra ~1 million or so units in Q1 2011 to make up for low stock at the end of 2010.
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gap between PS3 and Xbox 360 in 2011: 800k in Xbox 360s favour.
According to you and some other people here, PS3 still won 2011. So we need at least 800k less in Q1 2012 (calender year!) than the usual shipments. That would bring the number down to 700k - 900k. With such bad sales in NA according to NPD we are massively down compared to previous Q1 (calender year!). 600k is an optimistic guess if the overshipping and PS3 winning 2011 shall be right. 400k - 500k would be more reasonable guess.
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You're missing the point. Even if shipments for Q1 are the same as normal levels, ~1.5 million, it means nothing. The 360 usually has ~2 million on shelves/in the channel at the end of the year (except for 2010, where it had low supply in the channels), which the 360 did have at the end of 2011. The reason the 360 outshipped the PS3 in 2011, but didn't outsell it, is because MS had to make up for ~1-1.3 million shipments that didn't go out in 2010 (they went out Q1 2011, instead) to get them to the normal ~2 million gap between shipped/sold.
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How can MS overship (build up stock) in Q4 2011 without affecting Q1 2012?! How can they build up stock and sell the regular amount in the next 3 months with such a market decrease according to NPD? Just not possible. Worldwide retailers aren't forced to buy loads of Xbox 360s.
Anyway, the reasons why they won 2011 are not relevant at all. Look at it this way: They lost 2010 because of undershipping according to your logic. Every manufacturer had shortages this gen, so this is no excuse. Sorry mate.
