I don´t think they were, they were just saying that according to what they read, they could narrow to X numbers.

As to the source, Neogaf and Petrae is the source. He says he has access to the raw NPD numbers. Is he reliable? IDK, I just think he has nothing to gain from BSing on an interwebz forum.

While that's true, we still get MS's statements, by which we can extrapolate the remaing share the Wii and PS3 got.  Now, this guy claims MS was wrong in their press release, when they have never been in the past.  Sure, they may have rounded up and the marketshare is closer to 48%, but that would still only leave ~293K for the PS3/Wii, not the over 340K this guy is suggesting.  Plus, this guy definitely has something to gain from posting BS, especially now that aren't going to be releases to prove him wrong.  He gets more hits to his blog and he may just get off on the fact he has people following and believing him.

IDK bro, at this point who knows? Industry guys are questioning NPDs numbers, is NPD telling the truth? Console sales tracking is DOOMED, haha

The only reason they're questioning them is because no one expected the gen to decline so "early."  I put that in quotation marks because if they actually looked at how long these consoles have been on the market, this is far from early.  They keep siting 2004 sales, but Lord knows why.  The PS2, the oldest surviving console at the time, was approaching its 4th full year on the market.  This year, the 360 is working on its 6th.  I find it ridiculous that EVERYONE has been fine with NPD's numbers in the past, but then just because no one saw this happening this fast, they're starting to question NPD.  Like they all of a sudden forgot how to track numbers. 

Hey, all. I'm the guy that some of you are talking about. I saw some traffic to my blog originating from here, and I'm glad that I took the time to visit. 

I'll get right to the point. Yes, I do have access to the raw NPD snapshot data as provided by a retail contact. I am not allowed, obviously, to share raw unit or dollar sales in any fashion as that data is considered sensitive and can only be shared (on a voluntary basis) by the companies that NPD tracks. I can, however, use the data to provide analysis and insight into what's going on month-to-month.

I started Armchair Analysis last month after the KmartGamer project went away, for what it's worth. I'm still learning, obviously, but between retail experience and time around the industry, I am simply making calls as I see them. 

I understand that there's some disbelief about my source and/or validity. Unfortunately, with PR from Sony and NIntendo holding back on numbers (as they're not great), my analysis is getting picked up on by more people, such as at NeoGAF. I'm glad that I have more people talking about numbers and trends for January, as there are a lot of people interested in this line of conversation. 

I am with you, I see nothing wrong with these numbers from a believable stand point. MS Sony and Nintendo were extremely active on BF, sales went strong in November, and after sales suffered. But at the same time I understand some doubting, just from a 3DS stand point. Don´t you think that a brand "new" console, should not suffer this much when it comes to sales in January? We can´t blame bad sales on old hardware and see 3Ds doing some mediocre numbers.

At the same time ioi said earlier they have no intention in making any adjustments to January data based on this, so, he knows something we don´t, so maybe questioning NPD numbers might be legit.

gap between PS3 and Xbox 360 in 2011: 800k in Xbox 360s favour.
According to you and some other people here, PS3 still won 2011. So we need at least 800k less in Q1 2012 (calender year!) than the usual shipments. That would bring the number down to 700k - 900k. With such bad sales in NA according to NPD we are massively down compared to previous Q1 (calender year!). 600k is an optimistic guess if the overshipping and PS3 winning 2011 shall be right. 400k - 500k would be more reasonable guess.

I posit that there are several potential factors in the pullback in 3DS unit sales. 

First, no new software tends to hurt consumer interest. There was next to nothing (for ALL platforms, of course), so consumers aren't driven to retail to spend money if there's nothing new to see. Secondly, I think that Vita *may* be a wild card. With the release so close, it's possible that some consumers are still on the fence about whether to go 3DS or Vita. Next, weather patterns in the USA were generally mild for January, leading to more outside activity and less sedentary activity. Lastly, I think that consumers pulled back on spending overall as they paid down holiday debt and awaited potential disposable income via tax refunds for Feb/Mar. 

That's my $.02, anyway.

You're missing the point.  Even if shipments for Q1 are the same as normal levels, ~1.5 million, it means nothing.  The 360 usually has ~2 million on shelves/in the channel at the end of the year (except for 2010, where it had low supply in the channels), which the 360 did have at the end of 2011.  The reason the 360 outshipped the PS3 in 2011, but didn't outsell it, is because MS had to make up for ~1-1.3 million shipments that didn't go out in 2010 (they went out Q1 2011, instead) to get them to the normal ~2 million gap between shipped/sold.

I sure hope you are right and the Vita had something to do with it, that beauty deserves commercial success, because if that happens that think will have one of the best library of games ever. Potential is huge, but the Playstation brand has lost so much power in US that I think the Vita has a HUGE mountain to climb.

As for the other points, they make sense, we just need Feb numbers to see if this is a trend, or just a one year kind of thing (weaker Jan)