HappySqurriel said:
When the successor to the market leading console launches before its main competition it has typically dominated the generation ... All else being equal, the successor to a market leading console will sell better and have better third party support due to the success of the previous generation system. All else being equal, the system that launches first will sell better because it will have a large library and lower price than its competition.
While its obvious that all else will never be equal, there are very few things that have been demonstrated to be able to compensate for either of these advantages and none that have compensated for both. The best chance Sony and Microsoft have is producing something more innovative than what Nintendo is doing, but I'm not convinced either is dedicated enough to this to be successful. With Microsoft I expect them to produce an enhanced Kinect system which I doubt will drive sales because it is already an established set-up with a lot of baggage; while many people like it, people know what it is and have developed opinions and expectations surrounding it. I'm less certain of what Sony will do but, having seen the PS-Vita, I have doubts that their strategy has shifted enough to really try to produce anything particularly new or unexpected.
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Except this time market leader is market leader in name only - competitors routinly outsell it and this year they did so at almost 3:1 margin and whole gaming support from 3rd parties goes to non-leading consoles.
As for going first - X360 and Dreamcast were first too ;)
Imho x720 will be a leader next gen. They have the casual market in grip right now plus they have core market and plenty of loyal customers.
