| 2b) That isn't a particularly good list when the game in tenth place barely sold one million copies in America. Daxter and R&C were among the heavily bundled PSP games, so it looks better for Sony than it actually is. The actual killer app people are banking on right now seems to be Call of Duty, so there goes that friendlier image. GTA, God of War, either Daxter or R&C vs. CoD, Uncharted and LBP. Admittedly, the former combo is more "mature", but there's really not much of a difference when it comes to supposed flagship games between the two Sony portables. |
The new combo is more interesting I believe (opinion, not based on sales data, but based on my gut feeling). With the right momentum, these could foster a healthy ecosystem on the Vita.
| The Vita launch lineup looks definitely better, simply because there will be a lot more titles available than for the PSP. But when you take out the (late) ports of home console games (which can be played on other systems; systems that people already own), the titles that are poised to be relegated to niche status and those that will suck, then the list is limited to almost the same games as the PSP had at launch. This will lead to a "meh" reaction that causes the Vita to struggle in the West just like it already does in Japan. |
Lots of opinion in here. It's not just the number of games that is greater, the games are more compelling in general.
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Total 1st party launch + launch window games: 12
Ports (0)
Remakes (0)
Niche (1): Gravity Rush
PSN Only (3)
Those that will suck (1): Reality Fighters.
High-profile IPs (7): Hot Shots Golf, Little Deviants, ModNation Racers, UC, Wipeout, MLB: The Show, Unit 13.
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That's already alot, now for 3rd party games.
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Total 3rd party launch + launch window games: 23
Ports (Total 10): F1 2011, EA SPORTS FIFA Soccer, Michael Jackson The Experience, Rayman Origins, UMvC3, Virtua Tennis 4: World Tour Edition, BlazBlue: CS, LEGO Harry Potter: Years 5-7, Dungeon Hunter Alliance, BEN10 GALACTIC RACING
Remakes (1): Ninja Gaiden Sigma Plus.
Niche (6): Army Corps of Hell, Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention, Touch My Katamari, Shinobido 2: Revenge of Zen, Lumines Electronic Symphony, Supremacy MMA: Unrestricted
PSN Only (2)
High-profile IPs (2): Ridge Racer , Dynasty Warriors Next
Those that will Suck (2): Silent Hill Book of Memories, Asphalt Injection
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Grand total (1st/2nd + 3rd party)
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Total launch + launch window games: 35
Ports (Total 10): F1 2011, EA SPORTS FIFA Soccer, Michael Jackson The Experience, Rayman Origins, UMvC3, Virtua Tennis 4: World Tour Edition, BlazBlue: CS, LEGO Harry Potter: Years 5-7, Dungeon Hunter Alliance, BEN10 GALACTIC RACING
Remakes (1): Ninja Gaiden Sigma Plus.
Niche (7): Gravity Rush, Army Corps of Hell, Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention, Touch My Katamari, Shinobido 2: Revenge of Zen, Lumines Electronic Symphony, Supremacy MMA: Unrestricted
PSN Only (5)
High-profile IPs (9): Hot Shots Golf, Little Deviants, ModNation Racers, UC, WipEout, MLB: The Show, Unit 13, Ridge Racer , Dynasty Warriors Next
Those that will Suck (3): Reality Fighters, Silent Hill Book of Memories, Asphalt Injection
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Not bad at all imho.
| 4) It has been the common theme through all these posts that the selling power of Uncharted is in question, based on pretty much all other cinematic games performing notably worse on a handheld than their home console counterpart. If you take Uncharted's ceiling for sales on home consoles and split it in half (not unreasonable given historic data), you are left with a game that sells three million copies at most. That's not so much flagship anymore and the LBP game you constantly brought up won't be there at launch. I don't know when it's coming out to be honest, but we have already settled that it's a smaller game than Uncharted. |
No release date for LBP yet, but it looks like it will be mid to end 2012. Anyway it's 2012 for sure. I knew that, hence why I used the term launch window in my Mario Land, MK argument in the last post I made. UC may do better than you expect, being flagship to a portable, better priced and generally more affordable. If not the first entry, the 2nd entry may exceed your expectations given a better gamer install base for the Vita, as compared to a pirate install base on the PSP, as it were.
| 3a) Of course there was cherrypicking at work. You did the same. I am not going to bother to look through the whole PSP list to see how each and every game has performed, but I am quite sure that the overall situation is much closer on the Peace Walker side than the Crisis Core one. Like I said, Peace Walker was the prime example to pick. |
So, I did my homework buddy, and here is the breakdown of the top 50 PSP games.
Of the top 50, 19 are West-only, 1 is Japan-only (MH Freedom 3), 8 sold better in Japan (MH Freedom 2, Dissidia: FF, Hot Shots Golf, MGS: PW, KH: BbS, MH Freedom, World Soccer Winning Eleven 9, MGS: Portable Ops), 3 sold nearly as much in the west as in Japan (FF:CC, GT, RR, FF: Tactics). The 19 others sold massively more in the west. Here is the full list:
So yeah, I disagree. :P
| 6) I think you misunderstood my point or I don't understand your response at all. In the PS3's case, Nintendo was pulling ahead quickly while Sony struggled. If there was no Microsoft, third parties would have felt more pressure to cancel their PS3 plans, because the PS3 on its own couldn't guarantee to move the software numbers needed to break even, much less profit on the games. By making their games multiplatform, third parties could afford to ignore Nintendo and eventually started to make profits again. But in the Vita's case, where Nintendo is already pulling ahead quickly too, there's no third option. It's either Sony or Nintendo and if there are no hopes for the Vita to pick up steam, then only Nintendo is left. |
Ahh, gotcha. So MS helps PS when PS is in the weaker position. Since the PS2 had PS as king it didn't apply to that scenario. I get you now. So in the case of 3DS vs Vita, without MS things are less optimistic for PS. That's assuming that the Vita will perform like the PS3. Adding this to your answer to my qtn earlier (which was "how did PSP achieve 20Mil in America?"), then you may ultimately be right. OK.
| 7a) The Vita's launch lineup looks interesting in a vacuum, but since other, more attractive, systems exist to play most of these games on, it suddenly becomes much less appealing to fork over more than $300 for the system (hardware, memory card, games). The Vita needs great exclusives in order to sell. |
And that's DOA since we know that won't happen (they don't have that SW brand power)... Wow, you're steps ahead of me. Good job.
However, the appeal to play said games on a fancy piece of HW, in the intimacy of your room if desired, or on the go... If the broader audience bites, it may fly. But Sony doesn't have the software to attract said audience other than LBP sometime 2012. I'm about to give up playing Devil's Advocate. Then again, a different momentum for Vita versus PSP could prove that using PSP or PS3 numbers to extrapolate to Vita may be the wrong approach too, but for that alternative only time will tell.
| 7b) This goes back to the point that Western gamers prefer to play their blockbuster games on a big screen. |
That has very little to do with what I said. Let's say it did for a moment, I'll follow your logic. So I'll assume you are to mean "mature" western gamers (the quotes are intentional). What about the DS audience? What about a cross-over between DS and Vita consumers, is it possible? I sure think so. With proper marketing and all, consumers would bite for Vita. They do need to lower the price very soon though. A failed lauch could prove disastrous. But either way, I do believe that year two sales will begin to ramp up due to positive word of mouth. The PSP causes you to follow this line of thinking, and rightly so, but what if the Vita breaks the trends the PSP created? I believe it can happen, but I have no proof to offer for this, only gut instinct. I see Vita's appeal, and in time, hopefully with the right price, consumers will bite.
