So, after a few generations of gaming that seemed to confirm that, in the console space, there would always be a dominant winner, this generation has throw up a very different perspective, with a very geographic, demographic and genre fragmented marketplace.

The got me wondering what kind of console or versions of a console would stand a chance of seeing the kind of global dominance the PS2 had.  My thinking is currently that a single console could do it coupled with multiple service / peripheral models.

The console would have say 10GB onboard storage vs HDD as basic, have WiFi, support 1080p (I think to keep costs down it would need to be a decent jump above CPU/GPU of Ps3/360 but not too huge a jump - say 8 to 10 times performance).  It would also have Blu-Ray.  It would have an HDD bay as standard ready for use.

The console would also come in three models (from cheapest to most expensive).  The cheapest would include a gamepad only, the next a gamepad/headset and the third a gamepad/headset and motion control device.

Additional configurations would include an HDD as well - say 250, 350 and 500 GB to begin.

Standard headset support plus an official model easy to buy to add to entry model.

Motion control pack easy to buy to add to entry model.

The service model I believe needed to have a chance at global dominance would be:

Basic - free online,game store, access to online content not associated with games (Facebook, etc. plus regional content such as BBC iPlayer in UK for example or Netflix in US), with in-game chat supported and custom sourbdtacks. (Basically PSN)

Plus - paid for service which is the same as Basic but adds cross-game chat, cloud saves and enhanced on-line services (Basically Live with elements of PSN Plus).

Elite - same as Plus but adds DLC discounts/loyalty model like PSN Plus, guaranteed Beta access, etc.

The idea would be the basic console would support emerging markets and markets without stable online.  Basic online gaming is supported and attractive enough for those regions as no fee is needed.  The non-HDD model would give enough storage for basic gaming needs.  Entertainment hub would be more physical (via the Blu-Ray) orientated.

Upgrading the entry model with an HDD would easily allow for transition of console for entertainment hub uses.  The lack of proprietary HDD would enable local markets to easily support the device as well with cheap drives.

For the Western market the Plus service would ideally be the norm to get the best online experience and people would either start with the entry model and add an HDD later or jump straight to the HDD model for full online/entertainment hub support.

The Elite tier would give the most faithful additional serivces/discounts in a loyalty model similar to PSN Plus today.

The various peripheral/console pack options would enable someone to stick to just a gamepad up to all options including motion control.

So what do you think?  Will the market remain fragmented?  Or is there a combination of console/services that could please the majority and give someone a shot at dominance again?  What would you suggest to achieve this?

My thinking (skip this if you want BTW) is based on the following assumptions/preconceptions I have of the market based on this gen:

Paid for online is only fully embraced in a few regions - I belive this has hindered the 360 outside US/UK in particulary and empowered the PS3 in those regions.  Therefore there has to a basic, free online to have a chance to dominate globally.

Paid for online is fine in US/UK but needs at least Live level of capabilities and the market is willing to pay for it.  Upshot, offer bare bones were you can't chage and take money where you can.

Outside US/UK and a few similar territories the PS3 HDD approach is prefered to proprietary 360 approach.  Non-proprietary is better.

Physical media is needed for one more region, particularly in emerging markets.  Put in a Blu-Ray can cover all bases.

By allowing customers choice with HDD (including not having it) everyone can be supported from those just wanting space to store some saved games to those wanting to store a ton of content on the console.

You don't need a headset in the box at the lowest price point.

You don't need motion controls out of the box either.

You do need a gamepad out of the box.

I think you have some strong points with that model, especially the online options. It seems like a good all round console, which is certainly the kind of hardware that would be required, something with something for everyone basically.

Other than that, you do of course need strong games, so gathering a big userbase and developer support is key. More so than the hardware I believe. So get a console that is appealing in price and featureset, and do so for both consumers and developers and you may have the key.

The games are of course key, but I think this gen has shown that console cost/service features play a big part in chosing sides.  For example in regions where online is flacky that I've travelled through, the PS3 is much preferred as the online is free.  I've spoken to people who spend half their time trying to get online vs only half gaming.  Paying for Live seems outragous but PSN being free is fine.

I don't think there ever will again. I mean the Wii was breaking PS2 records; now it looks like it's gonna stop way short of the PS2's sales. I think the Wii U had the chance to, but Nintendo isn't making a case for people to switch over to it from their PS3s and 360s since the "hardcore" games are all ports from those consoles. Plus Microsoft is pushing Kinect to be the next Wii for the soccer moms. It's gonna another fragmented console generation.

I don't think next-gen will bring a ''market leader'' as we have had in past gens.

Having the right featureset is definitely important, that's the thing with broad appeal after all. But if it's going to dominate, getting out there and making it irresistible to developers is even more important I believe.

Well to put it simply, a casual console would dominate of course.

So basically PS3 yeah Reasonable? Look how that turned out.

Personally I think it will be far harder as time goes on to dominate the global market. Especially in North America. As the US takes protective messures to protect American products I am guessing Microsoft will likely begin moving all of its manufacturing jobs to America. With a huge tax cut promised by Obama and other politicians in the US they will have a huge upper hand in NA. In Japan Microsoft's little foot hold will now dwindle further the soaring yen and economic crisis will hit console sales. Europe doesn't have a major home platform to call its own. However the economic crisis will hit sales there as well.

Your ideas are great. However I don't think anyone will win global dominance next generation with a console that cost more then 350$ at launch unless they all cost 400$+. This new generation will be a budget generation. People in the western world are going broke and game consoles will not sell nearly as easily as they have in the past.

I think the current WiiU might have a chance, launch under 400$. The rumored Next-box sounds like it could launch at a competitive price if not beat Nintendo's. Sony better not choose to go for a high end graphical power house they will be slaughtered.

I am not entirely sure what features will be necessary. Except for free online and a great online network. Games of course as well. But I think price will define the next generation, not hardware capabilities.

Market domination is more about timing and strategic placement than anything to do with features. PS2's victory didn't have a lick to do with features, but rather that companies in the industry had high expectations coming off the PS1, and that PS2 was ideally placed to kill the Dreamcast and marginalize the GC and Xbox before they came out (and that Nintendo was into dicking around with their properties that generation instead of focusing on mass appeal)

To replicate the PS2, you'd either need wholesale 3rd party migration to the Wii U on top of Nintendo making the right sort of games for Wii U, or either replicate this generation, except have the console that came out first be more sensibly priced and have Nintendo enter GameCube mode again

If everyone is actually trying, sole dominion of the industry can never again be achieved, because third parties will gravitate towards any viable development platform that isn't Nintendo, no company will allow themselves to be beaten to the punch on release, and no-one will be able to marginalize their opposition