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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD Dec: X360 #1, 1.7m, 900k - 1m Wii, PS3

Don't forget the PS3 Move commercial, with the teens dancing. Saw that a lot!!!



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Generation is winding down folks. US has 105 million households or so, but 90m consoles have sold through already. Passing 10% penetration of the total US population is usually a pretty good indication sales will wane for any given hardware - currently that's 30.5 (305m / 10). The rumors of new consoles exist because Sony / Microsoft are making less money on their platforms than before - all those retail discounts and price cuts aren't boosting the bottom line now even if they push a bit of hardware or sustain it. Imagine if X360 & PS3 have to be sold at $150-$250 next year to match / come close to figures in late 2011 and you can see why new machines are suddenly a decent investment.

Part of the reason I thought about, but ultimately didn't edit in monetary figures into Seb's article is that everything just looked really high in our data, and the monetary figures would have been high by like at least $500m (which is damn high for just a hardware error). It became especially suspicious when Nintendo claimed 4.5m plus Wiis - no more than 1-1.4m in Dec. In what month has X360 ever beaten Wii more than 80-100%? There might be some, but off the top of my head its been more like by 50-75% recently, which was in line with December. So in retrospect that was actually an important piece of data that we all kind of ignored.

I didn't think we were off by 1m plus on X360 mind you, but I didn't see any reason for it to shoot up in December - Kinect demand fell off vs. 2010, BF week was abnormally huge, 960,000 X360s in a week is about the best you can do in the US market in a week, but the temporary $150 price point vanished in December (went back to $200 - still damn cheap for a Kinect w/ 360 bundle) and no major games came out after mid-November for X360 or PS3.

As a side note, this is the first time since 2005 I don't remember seeing any hardware sell out anywhere in the US, so what NPD has does match my experiences at retail in December. it doesn't surprise me that it reflects national trends either, given unemployment is exceptionally low here for how bad everything is globally.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

http://twitter.com/#!/michaelpachter/status/157642847904993280

Apparently if you do the math it Wii = 1.06 million.



 

Yeah, check the article - Wii - 1.06m, PS3 - 934k, and X360 was 1.7m plus so it still makes sense given 46% share.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Good 3ds numbers. Nice to see mario kart & mario 3d land there as well. Zelda at number 10th for single SKUs bolds well as well. Wii is down at lot it seems, well that was expected, after all wiiU is just around the corner now.
I am ready for next gen!



Menx64

3DS code: 1289-8222-7215

NNid: Menx064

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Am I the only one that thinks that any shots at the 360, PS3 or Wii in this thread is about as silly and childish as it gets? Folks, the WHOLE INDUSTRY looks bad Bad BAD with these numbers. There's nothing to celebrate here at all. Nada.

And for those clamoring for the next gen, outside of the Wii U we have no idea what the next gen is going to bring. There's no guarantee that MS and Sony will be able to impress us as they did with the big jump to HD this gen. 1080p is NOT going to be enough.

To be honest ...... I'm kinda worried about things. Nobody wants to talk 'crash', but we could definitely be on the verge of a serious downtrend for the industry as a whole. I didn't enjoy typing that ...



None software number yet... good night.



so basically every estimate for the consoles were way off.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

Those 360 numbers are fucking with my head.

It's times like this we realize just how little we know about what we don't know when it comes to shipment/sell through data and the reporting of such.



Where the hells Nintendo? Their press release couldn't possibly do more damage to the stock price today. Better to limit tomorrows damage by making a statement now.



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.