HappySqurriel said:
Reasonable said:
HappySqurriel said:
Microsoft and Sony are (more or less) being forced into releasing their next generation consoles by Nintendo ...
Neither company wants to leave the Wii U on the market for long enough that it can build a userbase that is large enough and become the "default console" that consumers buy and developers target; and, while Sony and Microsoft could produce systems that are substantially more powerful, the additional processing power could be wasted in technical enhancements that people don't notice and care about (improved output resolution from 720p to 1080p, increased framerate from 30fps to 60fps, etc.).
How long Sony and Microsoft have depends on how the Wii U sells, but it would take a near record pace to become the default console in 12 months on the market alone and a fairly moderate pace to become the default console in 24 months on the market alone.
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I don't think at the moment the Wii U looks like much of a threat TBH, particularly to the 360. The strength of the 360 in US and its key markets is its position as the best online platform.
Whatever specifications Wii U has, unless Nintendo seriously sort out their online infrastructure - which I'm guessing they won't certainly during the first 18 months of Wii U's lifespan - I doubt it will take many 360 or PS3 gamers away from Live/PSN. It's also likely that during the first 18 months or more the Wii U will get matching spec versions of 360/PS3 titles - in others words the current HD consoles with the biggest install base are likley to set the bar for graphics/tech with 3rd party developers not the Wii U. Taking the analogy of DVD vs Blu-Ray (with 360/PS3) I think Wii U will suffer from being undersupported in use of any additional power.
Initially I expect Wii U to appeal more to existing Wii owners without overly troubling the current HD consoles, particularly the 360 in US where Live more than anything will act as a barrier to Wii U adoption in the 360's core demographic.
Also, outside that it needs to catch general public like the Wii did - and I don't think lightning is going to strike twice this time. The tablet controller to me looks like having far less impact than the Wii's controls and Wii Sports. Kinect should more than offset the Wii U from the "fun gadget" perspective.
Of course I could be wrong - but I really don't think MS and Sony will be too worried about letting Wii U have an initial run at the market. Of course, if it does hit home like the Wii, then I expect to see Plan B's in full force from MS and Sony as they accelerate their plans.
I still think Sony/MS will leave Wii U unchallenged until Q3 2013 earliest and maybe even Q4.
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The Wii U isn't a threat to the XBox 360, it is a threat to preventing Microsoft from establishing an "XBox 720" ...
If the Wii U builds a large userbase (20+ Million), with strong sales (15+ Million per year), and develops a track record of being able to sell games in big third party franchises before the "XBox 720" is launched it will (likely) ensure that the vast majority of third party games released in the next generation will also be released for it. If Nintendo can develop a large worthwhile library of games and create a significant price advantage on top of this it creates a challenge to justify the purchase of another console for the majority of gamers.
Essentially, if the Wii U is on the market for long enough without being challenged that it has a large library of good/great games, a large price advantage, and the vast majority of new games are being released to it the PS4 and XBox 720 will struggle to establish themselves; and we will (likely) see a lopsided generation. In order to prevent this, Sony and Microsoft will release their next generation consoles before Nintendo can hit this point. Being that it is likely Nintendo would hit this milestone after being on the market for 12 to 18 months on its own, it is likely that neither Sony or Microsoft will launch their console (much) more than 12 months after the Wii U.
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I know. My point is that right now, based on what we know, I don't think the Wii U has much chance of doing that. I just doubt Nintendo will be able to produce the required level of online to succeed in US, UK, etc. Power isn't enough - to impede the 360 and to a lesser extent the PS3 the Wii U would need to take over in the online gaming space - and I just don't think it'll have nearly the right infrastructure.
I guess the Wii U could slow MS expanding - but TBH the Wii itself remains a reasonable brake on MS expansion there. Sure Kinect has sold well, but there are signs more for the additional interface functions or for a very small number of games for fun. As the holiday sales showed key Wii titles handily outsell Kinect titles - standalone, bundled Adventures or Wii Sports with Wii are irrelivent in this context.
Of course Wii U might have traction with the key third parties, but I doubt it. They'll support it but I doubt it'll become the default for CoD or Battlefield before the next Xbox or Playstation arrive. TBH looking at the controller I have serious doubts you'll find many players of online FPS will be looking to the Wii U with much interest.
Basically, at the moment I think Sony/MS could easily wait 18 months before releasing their own consoles. I could be wrong, but I think Wii will still sell to the Wii crowd and I think Nintendo's recent comments about Wii U being for more afluent buyers signals it's going to be expensive enough to be early adopter material at the start.
I think we're also going to find out next gen that a lot of core MS/Sony gamers are very attached to their respective online community, status and Gamerscore/Trophies - with no desire to dump them to move to a console with no track record in online gaming.
As I said though - I could be wrong :)
