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Forums - Sales - The OFFICIAL March 2007 NPD thread

duncan on 19 April 2007

PS3 is flopping hard. Expected way more than 130 for a 5 week month

 

wow unbelivable 



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FishyJoe on 19 April 2007
Hus said:
PS2 out sold every one.... WTF is going on.

 Almost everyone. DS out sold every one.



revolutions on 19 April 2007

Okey that's more like it. I was expecting the Wii to sell less then Feb. due to Ninty shipping more units to Euro to counter PS3 launch. Wii's april should be at least 100k more than march.



WiiFit will be 2008 #1 selling game in NORTH AMERICA!  
End of '08 Predictions: Wii - 48m X360 - 25m  PS3 - 19m
Wii monthly NA sales will top 400k every month in '08. *Jan sales ruined it. Grrrr!*
WiiFit will top 1m in sales in its first month of release in North America.
MGS4 will NOT be released in '08. *Darn it!* FF13 will NOT be released in '08.
Rockband Wii will top 600k in first month sales in North America.
WiiFit will pass the PS3 WW sales by Xmas '09.

DKII on 19 April 2007

Wow bad month, especially for the PS3 - 26k a week!



Avinash_Tyagi on 19 April 2007
Erik Aston said:
VGCharts was pretty far off.

 Well for their first time its not that bad, hopefully this will help them to readjust so their next month's data is closer



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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TheSource on 19 April 2007

ioi i can guess why - 360 hardware was driven by guitar hero at the end..if guitar hero sales from your sources are off, then the hardware will be off for 360 as well. Personally, I had expected 50k for 360/week until i saw your weekly data estimates. As for Wii, I don't think Gamestop would just call out Nintendo unless they had good information that shipments were tiny at the end of March. However, if your sources had wii in stock more so than other places..then the extrapolation messed the information up. In terms of raw data you are fairly close for PS3..but % wise..I think only DS was within 20%. DS sells everywhere, so it will likely have the least inaccuracy going forward. If data stays similar to this, I would trust most of the software, and make the totals on here 2/3 of the extrapolation.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Lingyis on 19 April 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Erik Aston said:
VGCharts was pretty far off.

Well for their first time its not that bad, hopefully this will help them to readjust so their next month's data is closer

  

 was just about to say that



the Wii is an epidemic.

FishyJoe on 19 April 2007

I didn't expect Motostorm to be a blockbuster, but how did it do so badly? PS3 devs have to be shitting bricks if this title can't even move 200k units.



Lingyis on 19 April 2007
TheSource said:
ioi i can guess why - 360 hardware was driven by guitar hero at the end..if guitar hero sales from your sources are off, then the hardware will be off for 360 as well. Personally, I had expected 50k for 360/week until i saw your weekly data estimates. As for Wii, I don't think Gamestop would just call out Nintendo unless they had good information that shipments were tiny at the end of March. However, if your sources had wii in stock more so than other places..then the extrapolation messed the information up. In terms of raw data you are fairly close for PS3..but % wise..I think only DS was within 20%. DS sells everywhere, so it will likely have the least inaccuracy going forward. If data stays similar to this, I would trust most of the software, and make the totals on here 2/3 of the extrapolation.

 those are very good hypotheses.

software is never supply constrained, so lower fluctuation is sellthrough, leading to better estimate. 

for the time being, it's highly likely VGCharts can't get Wii numbers right, since the fluctuation is gonna be huge--either you get a shipment or not.  i don't know why the figure is higher by that much.  i'm not sure what to say about the Guitar Hero and 360 sales, TheSource had a reason that appears to make sense.

if you let us in on how you guys collect data maybe we'll all join in the discussion



the Wii is an epidemic.

Lingyis on 19 April 2007

adding to the last post, maybe Guitar Heroes is a little supply contrained.  it's hardware and requires store space, maybe says something about the retailers you collected data from?



the Wii is an epidemic.