But they obviously won't count.

Sony could easily have the unveiling at E3 with a release in November or December. It's God of War. It'll create its own hype and sell a million first week.

Exclusives are nice and all, but none of those games are a "flagship". MS has 360 exclusives in 2012, but Halo 4 towers over them all. 

PS3 needs a multimillion selling IP in 2012 and GOW is their best bet now that GT and Uncharted are out of the picture. GOW 4 won't touch Halo 4 sales but its the best Sony has. 

Oh and its looks doubtful about Last Guardian making a 2012 release unless official release dates are set

Well Jan-March is the window to announce games releasing later in the year. So we have 3 months for confirmations on GOW4, as well as Last Guardian and The Last of US if it makes a 2012 release.

MS has been known to do that. But has Sony done this in the past few years, announcing a BIG retail exclusive to be released later in the year?

I am seriously asking, if only to demonstrate the odds of this happening. Likely a Jan-March reveal. 

Do they? This year they had gears 3 and forza and that was about it. Also Last guardian had an official date this year I can't see it being pushed back more then a year (again)

Not in recent memory. PlayStation could have a major PlayStation focused convention in March to announce their future Vita plans alongside a 2012/2013 strategy for PS3 and then at E3 have a bigger blow out of the game. Follow with more of a story focused demonstration at Gamescom in August.

Twisted Metal and Starhawk will both recieve 80-85 metacritic with not million sales instantly. Its not bad because we are actually getting two amazing games.

The Last of Us is premiered for 2013, I am willing to bet my ass on it. We'll see more in E3.

The last guardian is the only thing that'll release and I predict flop on that due to the drama going on recently.

GoW4 should imo wait till 2013 aswell with the last of us. 2012 is going to be a killer year with GTA IV, Max payne 3, mass effect 3, halo 4 and so on.

Kratos already got his revenge what will he do come back save the world he destroyed. I say make a new main character that can rival Kratos badassness, but give him/her a new goal instead of revenge maybe to steal the power of the gods, or to free the people from the god's wrath or something. Then use Egyptian Mythology because its the second most famous accent Mythology next to the accent Greeks and cause i feel like ripping off Raw's head.

AAA (2): Gears of War 3, Forza Motorsport 4
AA (1): Halo CEA
A (2): Divinity 2: The Dragon Knight Saga, Tropico 4

AAA:
AA (11) : Ilomilo, Torchlight, The Dishwasher: Vampire Smile, Trenched, Ms. Splosion Man, Bastion, Toy Soldiers: Cold War, Radiant Silvergun, Guardian Heroes, Orcs Must Die, Joe Danger Special Edition
A (9) : Zeit Squared, Full House Poker, Bangai-O HD: Missile Fury, The Adventures of Shuggy, Half Minute Hero, Boulder Dash XL, Insanely Twisted Shadow Planet, Fruit Ninja Kinect, Crimson Alliance


AA (1): Dance Central 2
A (6): The Gunstringer, UFC Personal Trainer: The Ultimate Fitness System, Kinectimals: Now with Bears, Kinect Disneyland Adventures, Your Shape 2011, Sesame Street OUAM

That sir was 2011 360 releases. First list is retail, then XBLA, and last is Kinect based. Some are 360/PC but they are all not available on PS3. Just saying 360 2011 wasnt as bad as Sony propaganda made it out to be. 

But 2012 360 has Ryse, Steel Battelion, Star Wars Kinect, Kinect Rush, Fable the Journey

Alan Wake, Minecraft, Witcher 2 (PC port but no PS3 version). Then Offcourse Halo 4.

Not to mention like EVERY other year, XBLA exclusives dwarf PSN ones.